[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 130049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130049 
COZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-130245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468...471...

VALID 130049Z - 130245Z

CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND RECENTLY...BUT REDEVELOPMENT
AND INTENSIFICATION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS AND
TERRAIN/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY STILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT FOR THE NRN HALF OF WW 468 AND MOST OF 471 FOR THE NEXT FEW
HRS. 

VIS SAT AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING
GENERALLY NWWD WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. SEVERAL ONGOING GENERALLY
WEAK CELLS MAY FLARE UP AND POSE A SVR THREAT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
TIME WHEN THESE BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE NRN
HALF OF WW 468 AND WW 471. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY
DEVELOP WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE AS UPSLOPE FLOW GETS LOCALLY ENHANCED AS
AIRMASS REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED /PER THE 00Z DNR SOUNDING/. THE
LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS EVENING...AND
MAY SUPPORT THE SVR THREAT INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WW/S 468 AND 470 FOR
A COUPLE HRS AFTER DARK...GIVEN THE MOIST 850 MB LEVEL AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INHIBITION NOTED ON THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING.

..CROSBIE.. 06/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

41080259 41060467 39190521 37020504 36850465 37000303
38570289 

WWWW