[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 130014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130014 
MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-130215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ORE...SRN WA...NRN ID AND NWRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470...472...

VALID 130014Z - 130215Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY NRN/ERN PORTIONS
OF WW 470...AS SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SW OF INITIAL ACTIVITY. OVER WW 472...CLUSTER OF
SVR STORMS OVER NERN ORE WILL MAINTAIN INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING INTO
NRN ID OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. ADDITIONAL SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE ID/MT BORDER AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EXTREME ERN PORTION OF WW 472 AND JUST EAST OF WW 472.

WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH
ERN ORE...WAS SUPPORTING CLUSTER OF STG-SVR STORMS OVER WW 472 /NERN
ORE/ WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS.
SEVERAL STORMS HAVE LIKEWISE EXHIBITED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND
THE SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WITH THESE STORMS AS
THEY MOVE INTO NRN ID. TO THE WEST THE SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER
NERN PORTIONS OF WW 470 AHEAD OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE BUT HAS
LIKELY BEEN DIMINISHED OVER  SRN WW 470 DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH MAY BE
CLEARED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OVER THE BITTEROOTS OF
FAR WRN MT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF
INSTABILITY EAST OF WW 472 SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY
OF ANY OF THIS SVR THREAT...AND A NEW WW EAST OF WW 472 IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

..CROSBIE.. 06/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

46662075 46512080 46132144 43972124 43941841 43431842
44831480 45411385 46761340 47801429 47571667 47141928 

WWWW