[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jun 12 19:59:34 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 121958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121958 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-122130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121958Z - 122130Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX AND THE
TX PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY.

STORMS ARE CURRENTLY INITIATING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING WWD ACROSS WEST TX TO NEAR CLOVIS NM. ALTHOUGH SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S F...THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY
AS SHOWN BY RUC ANALYSIS 700-500 MB LIFTED INDEX. VERTICAL SHEAR IS
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS BUT SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EXPANDS
ACROSS THE WEST TX CAPROCK. THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE HIGH-BASED STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

..BROYLES.. 06/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

33470168 33660269 34320315 35820302 36380257 36580152
35880063 34610061 33850102 

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