[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 121806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121805 
COZ000-NMZ000-122000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...FAR NE NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121805Z - 122000Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1
TO 2 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION.

VISIBLE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE
FRONT RANGE. THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
INTO THE PLAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND ENCOUNTER MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F. IN
ADDITION...REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW STRONGLY VEERING WIND SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME LIKELY AS THE STORMS
INCREASE IN INTENSITY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 9.0 C/KM
GENERALLY WEST OF I-25. THIS SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER PEAKS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE SUPERCELLS THAT
DEVELOP. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

..BROYLES.. 06/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

36290327 36180449 36930484 37660494 38790496 39280456
39110344 37610306 

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