[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jun 12 18:07:52 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 121805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121804 
ORZ000-WAZ000-122000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN ORE/WA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121804Z - 122000Z

ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AND BEGIN POSING A SEVERE THREAT BEFORE 21Z AS THEY MOVE
INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL ORE/SCENTRAL WA. A WW MAY BE NEED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 21Z. 

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN
CASCADES OF ORE...WHERE SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS
OCCURRED. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS...AND SOME OF THESE TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NNEWD INTO
THESE AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR /AREA WILL RESIDE ALONG MID LEVEL JET AXIS/ WILL
SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND THREAT FOR SVR HAIL GIVEN MODEST
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG.

FURTHER EAST...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF ERN ORE/SERN
WA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE REMAINDER OF NERN ORE/ERN
WA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SCENTRAL ORE/NERN CA. THESE CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT HEATING AND
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION...THUS DELAYING ISOLATED SVR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION THROUGH 21Z. HOWEVER WITH TIME IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES SHOULD POSE A SVR THREAT TO THIS REGION
AFTER 21Z.

..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR...

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