[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 110024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110024 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-110230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ECENTRAL/SERN KS...CENTRAL MO AND SRN
IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459...

VALID 110024Z - 110230Z

CONTINUE MOST OF WW 459 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.

SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER WRN MO/ERN KS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. COMBINED WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA /MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG/ AND MINIMAL CINH...HIGH BASED
TSTMS OVER SERN KS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING
INTO WW 459 DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL JET
IMPINGING ON SLOWLY SWD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
WCENTRAL/CENTRAL MO SHOULD SUPPORT CELL BACKBUILDING INTO WCENTRAL
MO. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST AS CELL MOTIONS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

FURTHER EAST...A CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS WITH DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL
OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW 459 WILL MOVE EWD AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS THE
STL METRO AREA FROM 0030Z TO 02Z. LEAD CELL THAT HAS EXHIBITED BOTH
SUPERCELL AND BOW ECHO CHARACTERISTICS SHOULD RIGHT MOVE ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN STL METRO AREA WHERE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS. LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THIS STORM THROUGH 02Z. THE SVR THREAT MAY LAST LONG ENOUGH THAT A
NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 459 ACROSS SERN IL/SWRN IND
AND FAR WRN KY BEFORE 03Z WHERE AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
AFOREMENTIONED STG-SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF STL WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO CELL TRAINING/HVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOPING OVER THE
ECENTRAL MO/SWRN IL LATER THIS EVENING.

..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

39299078 38769491 37759501 37399506 37848992 37008803
38258646 39548880 

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