[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jun 10 21:43:23 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 102141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102141 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-102345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1131
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...SWRN NEB...FAR ECENTRAL CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...458...

VALID 102141Z - 102345Z

THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS
SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AND ECENTRAL CO AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND ISOLATED
SUPERCELL STORMS OVER FAR WRN NEB/NERN CO MOVE ESEWD OUT WW/S 457
AND 458. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY BEFORE 23Z OVER THE AREA.

LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER FAR WRN NEB...WITH MORE ISOLATED SVR
CONVECTION OVER NERN CO SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE LARGE MCS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS STORMS MAY
BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A
RELATIVELY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...CELL/LINE MERGERS AND
STRONG MID LEVEL WLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT OUTFLOW DOMINANT
CONVECTIVE MODE THIS EVENING. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INSTABILITY
AXIS EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE INTO NWRN KS. THUS
THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND ORGANIZED SVR THREAT SHOULD TRACK ALONG
THIS AXIS INTO SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AND FAR ECENTRAL CO THIS EVENING.

..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

41439911 40750248 38540250 38769893 

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