[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 102107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102107 
MOZ000-KSZ000-102300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 102107Z - 102300Z

NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO ARE BEING MONITORED FOR SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THIS AREA ONCE STORM INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT.

THIS AFTERNOON A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN MO NWWD
THROUGH E CNTRL KS TO THE SW OF EMPORIA. FARTHER N...A ZONE OF MID
LEVEL ELEVATED STORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR TOPEKA EWD THROUGH NRN MO.
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THE CORRIDOR FROM
NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO S OF THE ELEVATED STORMS. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. A ZONE OF ASCENT
EXISTS FROM NERN KS INTO NWRN MO WHERE IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER
CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING AND WHERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN
REINFORCED BY THE ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS. A BAND OF 30 KT WLY MID
LEVEL FLOW EXISTS IN THIS AREA...SUPPORTING 0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 35 KT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL APPEARS CAPPED TO SURFACE
BASED STORMS...AND IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TOWARD EVENING.

..DIAL.. 06/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

38869304 38209474 38239700 38879726 39229648 39289521
39489352 

WWWW