[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 101854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101854 
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-102100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD...NERN WY THROUGH SERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101854Z - 102100Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
FROM SERN MT THROUGH NERN WY INTO SWRN SD. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN SD NWWD THROUGH NERN WY
INTO SERN MT. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING IS CONTRIBUTING TO
DESTABILIZATION IN NARROW CORRIDOR IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. LOW
LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000
J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MITIGATED TO SOME EXTENT BY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS COULD SERVE AS
A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. SATELLITE DATA
SHOWS A VORT MAX OVER NRN CO THAT WILL LIFT ENEWD THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE AND OROGRAPHIC
FORCING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER SERN MT
THROUGH NERN WY NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER SRN WY INTO WRN NEB AS A MID LEVEL JET ADVANCES EWD
THROUGH THAT AREA. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES FROM NERN WY
INTO SERN MT.

..DIAL.. 06/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

44090550 45170678 45590660 45550553 44820408 43530336
43050459 

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