[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 101844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101844 
NCZ000-SCZ000-102045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC AND PORTIONS OF WRN OF SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101844Z - 102045Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER ERN FOOTHILLS
OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT OF NC/SC THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SVR THREAT AND TSTM COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE
MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.

DOWNSLOPE SUBSIDENT FLOW OFF THE SRN APPALACHIANS HAVE AS YET
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN NC/UPSTATE OF SC. A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND WILL SUPPORT WEAK FORCING OVER THE REGION IN THE
NEXT FEW HRS. EVIDENCE OF THIS FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE CAN BE SEEN
BY INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN
VA/NERN TN. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...AS
MODEST DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT EXISTS /1200-1400 J/KG OF DCAPE/. IF
NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER
WRN NC/PIEDMONT OF SC IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...THEN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER NERN TN MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND MAY POSE AN ORGANIZED DMGG WIND THREAT AT THAT TIME.

..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

36408107 35978197 35728246 35408277 34818252 34708114
34927997 36297928 

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