[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 091927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091927 
NMZ000-COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-092200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...WRN CO AND NWRN/NCENTRAL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091927Z - 092200Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NCENTRAL NM NWD INTO ERN
UT/WRN CO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE
MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE AREA.

MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN NV/WRN UT. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST /MLCAPES UP FROM 750-1000 J/KG/ AS REMNANT LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN A TRANSITION OUT OF MONSOONAL TYPE PATTERN.
COMBINATION OF MODERATE FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
SOME MARGINAL SVR THREAT. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
DCAPE /1100 J/KG / WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND
THREAT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL SHEAR.

..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...FGZ...SLC...

38240598 39610685 40340800 40180980 39271081 38491105
37770996 37070942 35870862 35320779 35290685 35390601
36480533 

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