[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 091845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091844 
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-092045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL AND NERN WY...SWRN SD...NWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091844Z - 092045Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NERN WY
THROUGH SWRN SD INTO NWRN NEB. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A WW.

A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN WY SEWD THROUGH NWRN NEB THEN EWD
TO A SURFACE LOW IN NERN NEB. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY SWD. A
RESERVOIR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
RESIDES OVER THE DAKOTAS. NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF THE FRONT WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AS FAR W AS NERN WY...WHILE S
OF THIS BOUNDARY  MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING
INTO THE 40S. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM
1000 TO 1500 J/KG ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO FALL AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD THROUGH WY ALONG
NWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER
THE BLACK HILLS REGION OF WRN SD. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND IN UPSLOPE REGIME OF NERN WY
AND SPREAD ESEWD. NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SWLY 30 KT AT 500
MB WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..DIAL.. 06/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...RIW...

41900086 41550158 42140365 43530614 44280634 44590539
44030350 43280247 42530092 

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