From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 03:43:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 05 Jun 2006 23:43:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060342 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-060515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1079 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 PM CDT MON JUN 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439... VALID 060342Z - 060515Z ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING INTO CENTRAL KS... MCS HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATURE OVER NRN KS THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. STRONGEST CONVECTION...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES...IS OVER MITCHELL COUNTY KS...MOVING SWD AT ROUGHLY 25KT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LLJ CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM CNTRL OK...40KT...INTO SCNTRL KS. THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE THAT AN EXPANDING MCS MAY EVOLVE OVER CNTRL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. ..DARROW.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU... 40589712 37659556 37770104 40500272 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 04:14:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 00:14:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060413 OKZ000-KSZ000-060545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 PM CDT MON JUN 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL KS...NERN OK CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 060413Z - 060545Z ...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NCNTRL OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AIDED BY A STRONG LLJ FOCUSED FROM CNTRL OK INTO SCNTRL KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SUGGEST ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND CAPPING INVERSION ARE INCREASING WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 14C. MOIST CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY BE ROOTED ABOVE THE CAP INGESTING LOWER THETA-E PARCELS THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE NOTED IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY CAN AGITATE THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR MORE BUOYANT PARCELS TO ASCEND TO THEIR LFC. FARTHER NORTH...SEWD MOVING CONVECTION MAY INTERACT WITH THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING ENHANCING THE PROSPECT FOR DEEPER...POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37579892 37569655 35559483 34589621 35279778 36709907 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 08:58:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 04:58:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060857 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060857 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-061030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 AM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN KS...ERN OK...FAR WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440... VALID 060857Z - 061030Z AN MCS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SERN KS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SSEWD LATE TONIGHT INTO ERN OK. A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH 12Z. THE AREA DOWNSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN AND CNTRL KS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AN MCS ONGOING IN SERN KS. THE MCS IS TRACKING SSEWD DOWN AN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ORIENTED FROM SE KS INTO ERN OK AS SUGGESTED BY RUC ANALYSIS. THE ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY LIFT FROM THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE LOW-LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH 30 KT OF NW FLOW AT MID-LEVELS IS CREATING A SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM SUGGEST THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN... 35149679 34569600 34319523 34709423 35679393 36649463 37169546 37159635 36639710 35849714 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 16:20:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 12:20:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 061619 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061619 OKZ000-TXZ000-061815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1082 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL OK AND EXTREME NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061619Z - 061815Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY FROM E CNTRL THROUGH SERN OK BY 18-19Z. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LATE THIS MORNING A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A DYING CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING SWD THROUGH OKFUSKEE CO AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SWD MOVING MCV. A 30 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET IN CNTRL OK WILL VEER AND WEAKEN WITH TIME. HOWEVER...12Z RAOB FROM NORMAN SUGGESTS THE CAP MAY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR NEW STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX ALONG THE SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THE UPPER 80S. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NWLY 35 KT AT 6 KM WILL MAINTAIN VERTICAL SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE INCLUDING FORWARD PROPAGATING MULTICELLS AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. ..DIAL.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 35199624 35229533 34939491 33879484 33639627 35129717 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 19:07:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 15:07:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 061907 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061906 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-062100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK THROUGH NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061906Z - 062100Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20-21Z OVER SERN OK AND SPREAD SEWD INTO NERN TX. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THIS AFTERNOON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST S OF MCALESTER OK IS MOVING SEWD. DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING S OF THIS BOUNDARY. FULL SUN AND UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. AN MCV CONTINUES MOVING SEWD THROUGH ERN OK WITH A 40 KT NWLY MID LEVEL JET LOCATED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING TO NEAR 90 OVER SERN OK AND NERN TX AND SUGGEST THE CAP IS BECOMING WEAK ENOUGH FOR STORM TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD MOVING MCV AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED. HOWEVER...LIGHT SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING TO NWLY AND INCREASING TO 40 KT AT 500 MB WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO. ..DIAL.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34279542 34319453 33509435 32859430 32709536 33449600 34249627 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 19:35:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 15:35:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 061934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061934 IAZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-062130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1084 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND SRN IA THROUGH NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061934Z - 062130Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER ERN IA AND EXPAND SWWD WITH TIME INTO SRN IA AND PARTS OF NRN MO. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER ERN IA ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. OTHER STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER SERN IA ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL IL NWWD INTO SERN IA. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN A NARROW AXIS NEAR AND S OF THESE BOUNDARIES AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF CUMULUS EXTENDING ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM ERN IA SWWD INTO SWRN IA AND NWRN MO. THE CAP HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE FRONT. WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NWLY AT 35 TO 40 KT AT 6 KM WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SOME UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP MID LEVEL ROTATION. THIS ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX... 39929495 40589389 42129199 42549123 41889065 40639105 40359244 40019332 39299465 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 20:40:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 16:40:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 062039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062039 AZZ000-062245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062039Z - 062245Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING MICROBURSTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL AZ REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON. STORMS HAVE RECENT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST AZ AS OF 2030Z. A FURTHER INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH STORMS LIKELY TO SPREAD WEST-NORTHWEST ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR AND I-10/I-19 CORRIDOR. AMBIENT AIRMASS IS RATHER MOIST IN MID LEVELS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.0 INCH. BETWEEN ROCKIES RIDGE/BAJA LOW...A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW -- 25-35 KTS PER 12Z TUCSON RAOB AND TUCSON/PHOENIX WSR-88D VWPS -- WILL FAVOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST SPREAD OF EVOLVING CLUSTERS ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. SOME HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... 33661254 33551103 32880960 31590955 31401062 31751199 32371298 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 21:05:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 17:05:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 062104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062104 NMZ000-COZ000-062300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1086 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 062104Z - 062300Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS -- IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL -- WILL EXIST ACROSS EASTERN CO AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...STRONG HEATING/LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN CO AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 15-25 KTS. SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN NEAR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PULSE-TYPE LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS. WEAK FLOW REGIME AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 40230499 39680430 37900372 36400376 35480453 35330513 35570628 36090634 36970594 38950576 39990535 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 23:25:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 19:25:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 062324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062324 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-070030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1087 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442... VALID 062324Z - 070030Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NERN TX TOWARD NWRN LA... WELL DEFINED MVC IS DROPPING SWD ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER WITHIN REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. THIS FEATURE REMAINS INFLUENTIAL IN ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTION OVER NERN TX AS MODEST NWLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM CNTRL OK TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER WITH NEAR 40KT OBSERVED AT 6KM AT PAT PROFILER. IN ADDITION...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AIDING THIS ACTIVITY AS LATEST SFC DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM CNTRL LA NWWD INTO SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WEST OF TXK. LATEST THINKING IS THIS DEVELOPING MCS WILL CONTINUE DRIVING SWD AT 30KT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING FORWARD PROPAGATION DURING THE EVENING AS COLD POOL EVOLVES. DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. ..DARROW.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 31959491 34549576 34529331 31739241 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 23:49:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 19:49:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 062348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062348 AZZ000-070115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443... VALID 062348Z - 070115Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z FOR SOUTHERN AZ...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL. ORGANIZED MCS/HABOOB WITH HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL IN THE TUCSON/MARANA AREAS CONTINUES TO SPREAD WEST-NORTHWEST ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. WELL ORGANIZED COLD POOL AND EAST-SOUTHEAST STEERING WINDS OF 25-35 KTS PER TUCSON WSR-88D VWP SUGGESTS A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST PROPAGATION ACROSS THE DESERT FLOOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE CASA GRANDE VICINITY AFTER 0000Z...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX METRO BY AROUND 0130Z. OTHER STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST AZ MAY ALSO MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 33491320 33741251 33831138 33671024 32630948 31560915 31430984 31451101 31871253 32321319 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 7 00:53:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 20:53:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 070052 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070052 AZZ000-070215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443... VALID 070052Z - 070215Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z FOR SOUTHERN AZ...WITH CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED HAIL POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE/EXTENSION INTO SOUTHWEST AZ. AT 0045Z...MCS/HABOOB WITH HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS/BLINDING DUST CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PINAL COUNTY INTO SOUTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY. THIS COMPLEX APPEARS LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. GUSTS OF 46 KTS WERE RECENTLY MEASURED AT CASA GRANDA AT 0015Z. FARTHER EAST...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF TUCSON. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED TO A DEGREE PER EARLIER CONVECTION...THESE STORMS COULD POSE A SIMILAR DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THEY MOVE ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN 30-35 KTS OF STEERING FLOW PER TUCSON/S WSR-88D VWP. AMBIENT AIRMASS REMAINS DEEPLY MIXED OUTSIDE OF EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...WITH DCAPE OF 12OO J/KG PER 21Z PHOENIX RAOB/00Z TUCSON RAOBS...FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..GUYER.. 06/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 34181398 34011250 33831138 33671024 32630948 31560915 31430984 31451101 31871253 32471396 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 7 01:37:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 21:37:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 070136 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070136 MOZ000-070230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1090 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0836 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444... VALID 070136Z - 070230Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER WEST CENTRAL MO... RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT PROPAGATES SWWD ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS OF WATCH. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING FROM ERN KS INTO NRN MO IN THE WAKE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND VEERING DEEP LAYER FLOW. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY LINGER AHEAD OF TROUGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IT APPEARS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX... 39389300 38869265 38539354 38859421 39219400 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 7 02:07:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 22:07:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 070206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070205 WIZ000-070300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1091 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0905 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 445... VALID 070205Z - 070300Z ...TORNADIC THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE... UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS WI TOWARD LOWER MI...PER RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION ON LEE SIDE OF LAKE MI. STRONGEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST OF THE LAKE AND IS GRADUALLY DECREASING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RADAR DATA SUPPORTS THESE TRENDS WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS BECOMING LESS IDENTIFIABLE. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE GREATEST RISK WITH REMAINING ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX... 42628970 43358904 43998943 44408827 43698747 42858798 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 7 04:36:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 07 Jun 2006 00:36:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 070435 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070435 LAZ000-TXZ000-070530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LA...SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446... VALID 070435Z - 070530Z ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL LA INTO SERN TX... LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUES ITS SWD MOVEMENT ACROSS NWRN LA INTO ECNTRL TX WITH LEADING EDGE OF MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY PROPAGATING SWD AT ROUGHLY 30KT. CURRENT SPEED/MOVEMENT PLACES STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SRN PORTION OF THE WATCH AT ROUGHLY 07Z. WITH EXPIRATION CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR 05Z IT APPEARS AN EXTENSION FOR A FEW HOURS MAY BE NECESSARY. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG LEADING GUST FRONT. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 32259473 32289242 30329130 30129363 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 16:52:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 12:52:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091651 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-091845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1113 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...NJ...NRN MD...NRN DEL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091651Z - 091845Z THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PA AND GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NRN MD...NRN DEL AND NJ NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW. A MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVER CNTRL PA WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND -16 C AT 500 MB WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES AS AN UPPER JET SHIFTS SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO WRN PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD. STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE SEWD ADVANCING MID LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN W OF THE THERMAL TROUGH...SUGGESTING STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR IN CHARACTER. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT FOR HAIL. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 41207565 40437437 39567448 39497552 39737738 41067821 41847738 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 18:02:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 14:02:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091800 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091800 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-092000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1114 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN ID...FAR WRN WY AND SWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091800Z - 092000Z CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAINS AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SNAKE RIVER RANGE...AND OVER FAR SCENTRAL ID. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSES WILL SUPP0RT THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WHILE MOVING NEWD EVENTUALLY INTO FAR WRN WY/SWRN MT. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NERN NV WILL PROGRESS NEWD INTO SERN ID/WRN WY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEEP CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT WERE RECEIVING AMPLE SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...MAINLY THE LOWER-UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SNAKE RIVER RANGE IN FAR ERN ID. STORMS HAVE ALSO SHOWN SOME INTENSIFICATION RECENTLY OVER SCENTRAL ID JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. 12Z BOI SOUNDING INDICATED RELATIVELY DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH WELL MIXED DWPTS IN THE LOWER 50S. RESULTANT MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG...COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. LOCAL HAIL MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES AROUND 1 INCH HAIL POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FOR A WEAK/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AS REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN STRONG FLOW OVER SRN GREAT BASIN AND ERN ORE...SUFFICIENT FOCUS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI... 45761168 44541318 43221465 42471457 42041375 42151196 42761094 43151060 44511033 45331011 45791051 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 18:46:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 14:46:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091845 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091844 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-092045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1115 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL AND NERN WY...SWRN SD...NWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091844Z - 092045Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NERN WY THROUGH SWRN SD INTO NWRN NEB. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN WY SEWD THROUGH NWRN NEB THEN EWD TO A SURFACE LOW IN NERN NEB. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY SWD. A RESERVOIR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S RESIDES OVER THE DAKOTAS. NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AS FAR W AS NERN WY...WHILE S OF THIS BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE 40S. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD THROUGH WY ALONG NWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE BLACK HILLS REGION OF WRN SD. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND IN UPSLOPE REGIME OF NERN WY AND SPREAD ESEWD. NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SWLY 30 KT AT 500 MB WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...RIW... 41900086 41550158 42140365 43530614 44280634 44590539 44030350 43280247 42530092 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 19:19:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 15:19:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091917 UTZ000-NVZ000-092115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1116 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NV...WRN/NRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091917Z - 092115Z A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 20Z. ISOLATED SVR STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN NV SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND GROW IN COVERAGE WHILE MOVING INTO WRN UT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. ADDITIONAL STRONG-SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER ECENTRAL NV/WCENTRAL UT ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRY EXTENDING FROM NEAR EKO SEWD TO MILLARD COUNTY UT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /DUE TO PRESENCE OF 30-40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW/ SHOULD SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN... 40751291 41981456 41571616 40011605 38601526 38051443 37991332 38211147 38551079 40001085 40791182 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 19:28:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 15:28:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091927 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091927 NMZ000-COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-092200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1117 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...WRN CO AND NWRN/NCENTRAL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091927Z - 092200Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NCENTRAL NM NWD INTO ERN UT/WRN CO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE AREA. MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN NV/WRN UT. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST /MLCAPES UP FROM 750-1000 J/KG/ AS REMNANT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN A TRANSITION OUT OF MONSOONAL TYPE PATTERN. COMBINATION OF MODERATE FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL SVR THREAT. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DCAPE /1100 J/KG / WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL SHEAR. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...FGZ...SLC... 38240598 39610685 40340800 40180980 39271081 38491105 37770996 37070942 35870862 35320779 35290685 35390601 36480533 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 20:44:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 16:44:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092042 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA AND EXTREME SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092042Z - 092245Z POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 23Z FROM NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN MN. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY 23Z OR ONCE IT APPEARS INITIATION IS IMMINENT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NERN NEB WWD THROUGH NWRN NEB WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH E CNTRL NEB. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ENEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SERN SD THEN SEWD THROUGH WRN IA. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG E OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NERN NB/SERN SD INTO NWRN IA. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE HEATING AND STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME IN VICINITY OF LEE TROUGH IN E CNTRL NEB AND SPREAD EWD. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY AT 35 KT AT 500 MB IS RESULTING FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN NEAR AND E OF TRIPLE POINT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY HIGH STORM BASES SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41669718 42429769 43189813 43769797 43829642 43339503 42669446 41989505 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 20:47:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 16:47:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092046 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN ID AND SWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453... VALID 092046Z - 092245Z MARGINAL SVR HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS OVER THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER NRN NV...LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE AREA. AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS HAS BECOME STABILIZED FROM PREVIOUS TSTM CLUSTER AND WILL LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT. THUS THIS AREA SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM WW 453 SHORTLY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NRN UT HAS MERGED WITH OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THIS SW-NE ORIENTATION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT CELL TRAINING AND FOCUSED MARGINAL SVR THREAT AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ENEWD INTO SWRN MT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI... 44421319 43961377 42991503 42601540 42161524 42101227 42191118 44181096 45211064 45481124 44691271 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 20:47:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 16:47:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092042 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA AND EXTREME SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092042Z - 092245Z POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 23Z FROM NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN MN. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY 23Z OR ONCE IT APPEARS INITIATION IS IMMINENT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NERN NEB WWD THROUGH NWRN NEB WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH E CNTRL NEB. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ENEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SERN SD THEN SEWD THROUGH WRN IA. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG E OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NERN NB/SERN SD INTO NWRN IA. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE HEATING AND STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME IN VICINITY OF LEE TROUGH IN E CNTRL NEB AND SPREAD EWD. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY AT 35 KT AT 500 MB IS RESULTING FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN NEAR AND E OF TRIPLE POINT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY HIGH STORM BASES SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41669718 42429769 43189813 43769797 43829642 43339503 42669446 41989505  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 20:48:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 16:48:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092046 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN ID AND SWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453... VALID 092046Z - 092245Z MARGINAL SVR HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS OVER THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER NRN NV...LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE AREA. AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS HAS BECOME STABILIZED FROM PREVIOUS TSTM CLUSTER AND WILL LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT. THUS THIS AREA SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM WW 453 SHORTLY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NRN UT HAS MERGED WITH OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THIS SW-NE ORIENTATION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT CELL TRAINING AND FOCUSED MARGINAL SVR THREAT AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ENEWD INTO SWRN MT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI... 44421319 43961377 42991503 42601540 42161524 42101227 42191118 44181096 45211064 45481124 44691271  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 22:12:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 18:12:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092211 UTZ000-NVZ000-100015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1120 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NV...WRN/NRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 455... VALID 092211Z - 100015Z ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER THE UT/NV BORDER WILL MOVE EWD AROUND 30 KTS INTO THE SLC METRO AREA BETWEEN 00-01Z. MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE SLC AREA/WASATCH FRONT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERITY OF THE WIND THREAT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WW. CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NERN NV AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO NWRN/NRN UT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. SFC AIRMASS HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY EARLIER CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NRN UT. RECENT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES WHICH MAY AID TO SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION OVER THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WHITE PINE COUNTY NV EWD INTO JUAB AND MILLARD COUNTIES UT. MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW /30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/ ALONG WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY /1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE/ WILL SUPPORT A SVR THREAT IN SRN/SERN PORTIONS OF WW 455 FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS WITH THESE STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN... 41951584 38581568 38661133 39961104 41201106 41951126 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 23:13:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 19:13:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092312 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092312 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-100045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1121 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...SWRN SD...NWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 454... VALID 092312Z - 100045Z NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS HAVE INITIATED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST FROM NERN NEB SFC LOW...ACROSS NWRN NEB...AND INTO NERN WY. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE AND HIGH WINDS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SEVERE THREAT MAY BEGIN TO LESSEN LATER THIS EVENING AS EMPHASIS FOR STRONGER FORCING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST OVER PARTS OF NERN NEB AND SERN SD WHERE WATCH 456 HAS RECENTLY BEEN ISSUED. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... 44010230 43039995 41970001 41920111 43040591 44310484 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 00:35:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 20:35:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 100034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100033 COZ000-UTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-100230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1122 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0733 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN ID...ERN NV...NRN AND CENTRAL UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453...455... VALID 100033Z - 100230Z THREAT FOR SVR IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY OVER BOTH WW/S 453 AND 455 AND BOTH WW/S MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WAS BEGINNING TO SURGE AHEAD OF ONGOING TSTMS OVER SERN ID. THEREFORE THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE REMAINDER OF WW 453 IN SERN ID. A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINS BEHIND WW 453 IN SWRN ID AND FAR NCENTRAL/NERN NV AS PER THE 00Z LKN SOUNDING. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF VORT MAX MOVING SEWD THROUGH ERN OR MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS REGION. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER WW 455...CONVECTIVE LINE HAS SURGED OUT OF THE WATCH ACROSS THE SLC AREA. FURTHER SW...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SRN FRINGE OF OUTFLOW REMAINS MODEST OVER WCENTRAL/CENTRAL UT. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE VORT MAX THAT IS DRIVING THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS FAR NRN UT. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE INSTABILITY AS NOTED ON THE 00Z GJT SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EAST OF WW 455 AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NERN UT AND POSSIBLY NWRN CO FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN... 40880821 40911106 42361103 43421120 42431330 42551449 42511618 42001655 41631639 41131515 40741273 40361245 39321247 39111159 38791016 38750852 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 01:59:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 21:59:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 100158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100158 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-100300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1123 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456... VALID 100158Z - 100300Z STORMS MOVING INTO NWRN IA APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING FROM LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STRONG INHIBITION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE/LIFT NEAR SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT...FROM NERN NEB...ACROSS WRN IA...AND INTO SWRN MN...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE WARM FRONT...SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS MOVING EAST FROM NCNTRL NEB MAY ALSO MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 456 SHORTLY. HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 43060070 41390058 41439380 42229382 42279397 42499400 43479400 43609402 43649488 43829489 43839834 43939834 43939931 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 17:15:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 13:15:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101714 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-101915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1124 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NERN CO AND WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101714Z - 101915Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER SERN WY INTO NERN CO THROUGH 19Z AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN NEB BY MID AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES ARE EXPECTED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB INTO EXTREME NERN CO. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS BY 18Z OR 19Z. A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NERN CO THROUGH WRN NEB AND INTO SWRN SD. W OF THIS BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE 40S...WHILE E OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG FROM SERN WY INTO PORTIONS OF NERN CO TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS WRN NEB AND EXTREME NERN CO. SATELLITE DATA SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN WY ACCOMPANIED BY ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES EWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY AND NERN CO AND SPREAD EWD. STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY FURTHER AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS TOWARD WRN NEB. STORMS W OF THE FRONT IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE HIGHER BASED. STORM BASES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER E OF THE FRONT OVER A PORTION OF WRN NEB AND EXTREME NERN CO WHERE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 39900424 42340540 42900362 41560237 39870231 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 18:21:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 14:21:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101820 VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-102015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1125 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/FAR SWRN IN...PORTIONS OF KY...NERN TN AND FAR SWRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101820Z - 102015Z ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL KY SEWD INTO FAR SWRN VA/NERN TN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER FAR SRN IL AND SWRN IND. SVR THREAT MAY BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH THAT A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 20Z. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR MWN TO OWB ESEWD TO 60 W OF LOZ TO TRI. AIRMASS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH AXIS OF MID-UPPER 60S DWPTS SUPPORTING MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. WITH MODERATE NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 25-30 KTS...AND WEAK ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION AND LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND POTENTIAL GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE SEWD PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY...AND THUS SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE FAIRLY CONFINED EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AXIS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...LSX... 38188695 38568862 38548955 38138969 37468874 36798675 36368517 35888349 35928261 36368214 36768229 37658501 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 18:45:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 14:45:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101844 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101844 NCZ000-SCZ000-102045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC AND PORTIONS OF WRN OF SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101844Z - 102045Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER ERN FOOTHILLS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT OF NC/SC THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SVR THREAT AND TSTM COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. DOWNSLOPE SUBSIDENT FLOW OFF THE SRN APPALACHIANS HAVE AS YET LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN NC/UPSTATE OF SC. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WILL SUPPORT WEAK FORCING OVER THE REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. EVIDENCE OF THIS FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE CAN BE SEEN BY INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN VA/NERN TN. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...AS MODEST DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT EXISTS /1200-1400 J/KG OF DCAPE/. IF NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER WRN NC/PIEDMONT OF SC IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...THEN CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NERN TN MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY POSE AN ORGANIZED DMGG WIND THREAT AT THAT TIME. ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP... 36408107 35978197 35728246 35408277 34818252 34708114 34927997 36297928 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 18:55:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 14:55:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101854 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-102100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1127 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD...NERN WY THROUGH SERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101854Z - 102100Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM SERN MT THROUGH NERN WY INTO SWRN SD. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN SD NWWD THROUGH NERN WY INTO SERN MT. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION IN NARROW CORRIDOR IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MITIGATED TO SOME EXTENT BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS COULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. SATELLITE DATA SHOWS A VORT MAX OVER NRN CO THAT WILL LIFT ENEWD THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER SERN MT THROUGH NERN WY NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER SRN WY INTO WRN NEB AS A MID LEVEL JET ADVANCES EWD THROUGH THAT AREA. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES FROM NERN WY INTO SERN MT. ..DIAL.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 44090550 45170678 45590660 45550553 44820408 43530336 43050459 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 19:55:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 15:55:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101953 KSZ000-OKZ000-102200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN...CENTRAL AND NRN OK...SCENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101953Z - 102200Z ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BASED TSTMS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH FROM WCENTRAL OK NEWD INTO SCENTRAL KS THROUGH 22Z. STORM MVMNT SHOULD BE EAST AROUND 10 KTS. THE OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL OK /BECKHAM COUNTY/ NEWD INTO SCENTRAL KS /RENO COUNTY/. CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXISTED DUE TO MID-HIGH LEVEL REMNANT MONSOON PLUME AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN KS/TX PANHANDLE. VERY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES /LOWER 100S/ EXISTED OVER WRN OK NWD INTO SCENTRAL KS. RECENT RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CINH REMAINING AND AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. MODEST LOW LEVEL WINDS /20-25 KTS/ EXISTED IN DEEPLY MIXED THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. COMBINED WITH DCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG...A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS WILL EXIST WITH ANY HIGH BASED TSTM ACTIVITY. ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 35939739 37809603 38139662 37779813 36359905 36029911 35429959 35259960 34869880 34959823 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 20:30:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 16:30:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 102029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102028 ILZ000-MOZ000-102230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1129 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL MO...SWRN/SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102028Z - 102230Z SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR COU ESEWD TO THE STL METRO AREA/SRN IL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AREA IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO. LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR COU ESEWD BISECTING THE STL METRO...THEN SEWD TO NEAR MT VERNON. RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING CINH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH /AS EVIDENT BY RECENT INCREASE IN LTG /ELEVATED ECHO TRENDS OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO/ SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE NEXT FEW HRS AND LEAD TO ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AN ADDITIONAL POSSIBILITY IS THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NCENTRAL/NWRN MO MAY MOVE SEWD ACROSS INTO ECENTRAL MO AND INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CU DEVELOPMENT SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT DMGG WIND GUSTS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX... 39309096 39519217 38649257 37708823 38648780 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 21:08:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 17:08:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 102107 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102107 MOZ000-KSZ000-102300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1130 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0407 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102107Z - 102300Z NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO ARE BEING MONITORED FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA ONCE STORM INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT. THIS AFTERNOON A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN MO NWWD THROUGH E CNTRL KS TO THE SW OF EMPORIA. FARTHER N...A ZONE OF MID LEVEL ELEVATED STORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR TOPEKA EWD THROUGH NRN MO. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THE CORRIDOR FROM NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO S OF THE ELEVATED STORMS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. A ZONE OF ASCENT EXISTS FROM NERN KS INTO NWRN MO WHERE IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING AND WHERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY THE ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS. A BAND OF 30 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS IN THIS AREA...SUPPORTING 0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35 KT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL APPEARS CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS...AND IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TOWARD EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38869304 38209474 38239700 38879726 39229648 39289521 39489352 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 21:43:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 17:43:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 102141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102141 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-102345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1131 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0441 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...SWRN NEB...FAR ECENTRAL CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...458... VALID 102141Z - 102345Z THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AND ECENTRAL CO AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS OVER FAR WRN NEB/NERN CO MOVE ESEWD OUT WW/S 457 AND 458. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY BEFORE 23Z OVER THE AREA. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER FAR WRN NEB...WITH MORE ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION OVER NERN CO SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE LARGE MCS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...CELL/LINE MERGERS AND STRONG MID LEVEL WLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT OUTFLOW DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE THIS EVENING. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE INTO NWRN KS. THUS THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND ORGANIZED SVR THREAT SHOULD TRACK ALONG THIS AXIS INTO SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AND FAR ECENTRAL CO THIS EVENING. ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 41439911 40750248 38540250 38769893 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 00:25:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 20:25:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 110024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110024 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-110230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1132 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ECENTRAL/SERN KS...CENTRAL MO AND SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459... VALID 110024Z - 110230Z CONTINUE MOST OF WW 459 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER WRN MO/ERN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. COMBINED WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA /MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG/ AND MINIMAL CINH...HIGH BASED TSTMS OVER SERN KS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING INTO WW 459 DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON SLOWLY SWD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS WCENTRAL/CENTRAL MO SHOULD SUPPORT CELL BACKBUILDING INTO WCENTRAL MO. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST AS CELL MOTIONS WILL REMAIN NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. FURTHER EAST...A CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS WITH DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW 459 WILL MOVE EWD AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS THE STL METRO AREA FROM 0030Z TO 02Z. LEAD CELL THAT HAS EXHIBITED BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOW ECHO CHARACTERISTICS SHOULD RIGHT MOVE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN STL METRO AREA WHERE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS. LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM THROUGH 02Z. THE SVR THREAT MAY LAST LONG ENOUGH THAT A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 459 ACROSS SERN IL/SWRN IND AND FAR WRN KY BEFORE 03Z WHERE AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE. AFOREMENTIONED STG-SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF STL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CELL TRAINING/HVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOPING OVER THE ECENTRAL MO/SWRN IL LATER THIS EVENING. ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 39299078 38769491 37759501 37399506 37848992 37008803 38258646 39548880 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 00:42:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 20:42:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 110041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110041 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-110215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CENTRAL AND NERN CO/SWRN NEB/NWRN AND INTO N CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...460... VALID 110041Z - 110215Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE SPREADING SEWD OUT OF ERN CO AND SWRN NEB INTO/ACROSS PARTS OF WW 460. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS WW 457...WITH SUPERCELL NOW OVER SRN YUMA/NRN KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN ERN CO NOW WITHIN THE CONFINES OF WW 460. STORMS ARE ALSO ENTERING WW 460 FROM THE NW...WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SWRN NEB. AIRMASS AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WHILE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EWD INTO THIS AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 460. WITH TIME...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXPAND EWD INTO FAR S CENTRAL NEB AND N CENTRAL KS...AS STORMS MOVE E OF WW 460 -- AND PERHAPS WITH SEPARATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. ..GOSS.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU... 40580216 40660134 40640077 40489984 40169885 39769806 38669807 38399856 38470081 38740248 39500280 40370272 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 03:43:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 23:43:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 110342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110342 ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-110545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL MO INTO ERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459... VALID 110342Z - 110545Z ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER FAR NWRN AREAS OF WW 459...AND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALSO...MCS OVER NWRN KS WILL CONTINUE SEWD AND WILL BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE WW INTO NERN KS. SEVERE STORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER FAR NERN KS/NWRN MO ALONG ZONE OF DEEP CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION IS MARGINAL. STILL...LIFT WILL PERSIST ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WITH LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND LIKELY WITH STRONGER CELLS. LATER TONIGHT...MCS NOW ENTERING N CENTRAL KS...OR AT LEAST OUTFLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FURTHER AND MAY PROVIDE FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL AND/OR INCREASED STORM COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PORTIONS OF NERN KS FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND POSSIBLE WW LATER TONIGHT. ..JEWELL.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38989499 38889140 38868902 38078897 37289513 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 04:07:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 00:07:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 110406 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110405 KSZ000-NEZ000-110530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1135 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND N CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460... VALID 110405Z - 110530Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS NWRN KS. THOUGH A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...NEW WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM E OF WW 460. LATEST RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT THE TWO MOST ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS -- ONE OVER ERN NORTON/WRN PHILLIPS COUNTY KS AND THE OTHER OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY KS -- HAVE WEAKENED RECENTLY. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO PERSIST...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED INTO N CENTRAL KS...WITH LOW-LEVEL JET NOW BECOMING WELL-ESTABLISHED WELL E -- ACROSS NERN KS. THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30 TO 40 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LIMITED/LOCAL SEVERE THREAT...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT NEW WW WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. ..GOSS.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 39720093 40150026 40179943 39789852 39039811 38379896 38389984 38870057 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 08:16:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 04:16:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 110814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110814 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-110945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1136 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS AND NRN/CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462... VALID 110814Z - 110945Z COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE MCS ACROSS NRN MO AND SERN NEB ARE STRENGTHENING EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD THROUGH ERN KS WHILE ANOTHER IS SETTLING SWD INTO CNTRL MO. H9-H85 JET OF 40-50 KTS BLOWING PERPENDICULAR TO THE EVOLVING COLD POOLS WAS SUPPORTING A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTMS VCNTY KMCI EWD TO WEST OF KSTL. THESE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME THE DOMINATE STORMS AND AS THE LLJ VEERS...AREAS FROM CNTRL INTO ERN MO ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE THE MOST STORMS. MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BUT...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. ..RACY.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP... 39739665 40439629 40479424 40109278 38689069 37959058 37909226 38149560 38869695 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 16:40:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 12:40:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 111639 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111638 KYZ000-TNZ000-111845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN THROUGH N CNTRL TN THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111638Z - 111845Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH NWRN AND NCNTRL TN INTO WRN AND CNTRL KY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SRN KY. FARTHER SW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN EWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN IL SWWD THROUGH SERN MO AND NERN AR. WARM SECTOR S AND E OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS DESTABILIZING WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. AN MCV OVER S CNTRL IL WILL CONTINUE ESEWD THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS KY. OTHER STORMS MAY INTENSIFY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE MODEST WITH WLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 KT. A BELT OF STRONGER FLOW EXISTS OVER CNTRL KY NEAR AND N OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT. DOMINANT STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE MULTICELLULAR AND SOME STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY DEVELOP EWD. ..DIAL.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... 37618458 37198406 36658415 36238486 35858643 35548781 35438949 36748886 37658713 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 17:09:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 13:09:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 111708 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111707 NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-111900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1138 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA...EXTREME NERN TN...NWRN THROUGH E CNTRL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111707Z - 111900Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 18Z OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN VA...NERN TN AND NWRN NC. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD SEWD THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL NC. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN NC NWWD THROUGH SWRN VA. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION BY 18Z-19Z. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SEWD IN VICINITY OF FRONT AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS LOCATED ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A BELT OF STRONGER 40 TO 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. ..DIAL.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...MRX... 35897689 35167691 34647806 34837892 35578010 36618266 37318099 36407823 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 18:52:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 14:52:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 111851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111851 OKZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-112115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1139 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE...ERN CO AND FAR NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111851Z - 112115Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM FAR NERN NM NWD INTO SERN WY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS OF NERN CO/SERN WY BY 21Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 20Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF SERN WY SWD INTO NERN NM. DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CINH REMAINING OVER THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE...AND AS A RESULT CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP EWD FROM THE ERN SLOPES INTO THE FRONT RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 40+ T/TD SPREADS....MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG / INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINAL SVR WIND GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE. STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WERE EVIDENT PER SFC AND REGIONAL PROFILER DATA OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF FAR NRN CO/SERN WY. CONSEQUENT GREATER VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS REGION AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT GREATER UPDRAFT ROTATION POTENTIAL AND INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. FURTHER EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE...SEVERAL MORE HRS OF HEATING WILL BE NECESSARY FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ERN CO AND SERN WY AS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MLCINH REMAINS AT 18Z. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR OTHER SVR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE WILL BE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/LEE TROUGH EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF AKO WNWWD TO A MESOLOW OVER SRN WELD COUNTY IN NERN CO AND ALONG A LEE TROUGH ORIENTED E-W NORTH OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE OVER SERN WY/FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE. ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 41350265 42480306 42300529 40620572 39950562 38240545 37080521 36440488 36610299 38490276 39560274 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 20:00:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 16:00:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 111958 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111958 OKZ000-TXZ000-112230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1140 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/NWRN TX...SERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111958Z - 112230Z ISOLATED SVR WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING TSTMS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS/LOW ROLLING PLAINS REGION. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SERN TX PANHANDLE/FAR WCENTRAL OK IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED AND MARGINAL...SO A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION OF WRN TX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED SFC TROUGH AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NM WAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED AND MODEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND SFC CONVERGENCE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP NEWD TOWARDS A SFC LOW CENTER OVER THE SERN TX PANHANDLE/FAR SWRN OK. LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER T/TD SPREADS SUPPORTING INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS...HIGH DCAPE VALUES /1500-2000 J/KG/ AND MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG...SUGGEST THAT DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. OVERALL WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE AND LIMITED DURATION FOR ANY SINGLE CELL LIFESPAN. ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF... 35370050 34340116 33610299 33120298 32400253 32080226 32370123 34289974 35179950 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 21:48:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 17:48:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 112147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112147 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-120015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1141 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...FAR NERN NM... OK PANHANDLE/FAR NWRN OK AND SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112147Z - 120015Z ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO WILL LIKELY TRACK SLOWLY EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF SERN CO/NERN NM IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SWRN KS/SERN CO. THE OVERALL SVR THREAT ACROSS THE AREA APPEARS MARGINAL...AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WAS SUPPORTING BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND RATON RIDGE AREA. DESPITE MARGINAL MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER THE AREA...15 KTS AT 500 MB...THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS SUPPORTING AROUND 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SUFFICIENT UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/. ADDITIONAL SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER NERN NM...AND NORTH OF THIS STORM IN THE PUB AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH CONTINUED MODERATE UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR A DEEPLY MIXED BNDRY LAYER SHOULD FAVOR MARGINALLY SVR WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT. FURTHER EAST...AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WW 464 SEWD INTO SWRN KS /JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO OK/ AS FOCUSED SFC CONVERGENCE COMBINES WITH ASCENT FROM UPPER WAVE MOVING OUT OF NM AND WEAKENING CINH. THE OVERALL INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS IN THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT ORGANIZED SVR THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 39020210 38880462 38040465 36900445 36270434 36350317 36460208 36560087 36879938 37299920 37470144 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 22:40:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 18:40:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 112239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112239 SDZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-120045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1142 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0539 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE...SWRN SD...AND NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 464... VALID 112239Z - 120045Z CONTINUE ALL OF WW 464. CONVECTION WAS INTENSIFYING OVER THE ERN WY/CO FRONT RANGE...AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN POSING A SEVERE THREAT IN THE NEXT HR OR SO. TSTMS WERE INTENSIFYING OVER THE DEN AREA NWD TO NEAR CYS...AND ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO POSE A SVR THREAT IN THE NEXT HR OR SO AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH WWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 20 W KIMBALL NEB TO 20 W OF AKRON COLO. PRIND ARE THAT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS...DUE TO 30-35 DEG F T/TD SPREADS...WILL PRECLUDE MORE THAN A VERY ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT. ANY BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH CONVECTION THAT MOVES ALONG OR CROSSES THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY WILL BE ENHANCED. ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE A FEW COUNTIES NORTH OF WW 464 AS LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION INTO ECENTRAL WY/SWRN SD...BUT OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT ANOTHER WW IS NOT EXPECTED. ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 42990315 44210359 43810542 42840513 39090396 39100217 41830281 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 23:02:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 19:02:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 112301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112301 OKZ000-120100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1143 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0601 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112301Z - 120100Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ACROSS NRN OK BY 00Z. OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DISORGANIZED THAT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR GAG EWD TO NEAR SWO. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 100S ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE WEAKENED THE CINH SUFFICIENTLY THAT WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE /INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS/ AND APPROACHING UPPER JET...SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY 00Z. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL...BUT INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS /1500-2000 J/KG OF DCAPE/ ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 36359652 36519841 36549948 36279995 36069995 35799980 35639923 35749645 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 23:17:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 19:17:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 112315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112314 NCZ000-SCZ000-120045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1144 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463... VALID 112314Z - 120045Z CONTINUE WW. ADDITIONAL WWS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT THROUGH 01-02Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL BELOW 90F AHEAD OF OUTFLOW...AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS UNTIL ACTIVITY PROGRESSES INTO COOLER MARINE LAYER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS EVENING. BETTER HAIL POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ON NOSE OF STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WARMING...WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF FAYETTEVILLE NC...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT COOLS FROM THE MID 90S...LARGE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STABILIZE BY 01-02Z. ..KERR.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 36498001 36377917 36047804 35667775 35207774 34457910 34447965 34548027 34598092 34798129 35328089 35828059 36188045 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 23:57:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 19:57:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 112355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112355 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-120230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN ID AND NWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112355Z - 120230Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD AROUND 25 KTS ACROSS SRN/SERN ID...EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN WY BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. SVR STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE WRN EDGE OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS THAT EXTENDS DOWN THE MAGIC/SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN ID. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS /40-45 KTS/ ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG/ SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SVR THREAT WITH THE ONGOING TSTMS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO NWRN WY. RELATIVELY MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SVR WIND/HAIL AND THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...PIH...BOI... 43710873 44720926 44621129 42931475 42081444 42681097 42960996 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 00:13:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 20:13:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120012 KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-120145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1146 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...KY...TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465... VALID 120012Z - 120145Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. ADDITIONAL WWS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE BEING MONITORED. CLUSTER OF STORMS...PERHAPS SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG SEASONABLY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH 02-03Z. RELATIVELY MODERATE SURFACE HEATING ON WARM SIDE OF BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION BENEATH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. AND...AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STABILIZE NEXT FEW HOURS...VIGOR OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. UNTIL THEN...HOWEVER...BELT OF BROADLY CYCLONIC 30+ KT MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE STORM MOTIONS FOR CONTINUING MARGINAL SEVERE WIND THREAT...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO STABILIZE ON NOSE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. MIXED LAYER CAPE TO 2000 J/KG COULD STILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL...AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED...STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/WEST OF NASHVILLE BY 02Z. ..KERR.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... 37658396 37188262 36248418 35748660 35758769 36208860 36928787 37078627 37458465 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 06:05:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 02:05:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120604 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120603 KSZ000-OKZ000-120730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL KS AND EXTREME NCNTRL OK CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 120603Z - 120730Z TSTMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SCNTRL KS AND PERHAPS EXTREME NCNTRL OK THROUGH 09Z. ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RNFL WILL BE LIKELY...BUT A CONVECTIVE WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV ROTATING EWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND WILL BE ENHANCING THE LLJ THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A WEAK H85 JET WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE SLY THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. NOSE OF THIS JET WILL BE IMPINGING ON AN E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOIST CONVECTION N OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER OF AROUND 35 KTS AND MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG SUGGEST THAT INITIAL STORMS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY ORGANIZED WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. BUT...AS MORE STORMS FORM...ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT ESEWD INTO EXTREME NCNTRL/NERN OK AND SERN KS THROUGH 12Z...WHILE STRONGER STORMS FAVOR THE WRN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BANDS ACROSS SCNTRL KS. ..RACY.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38369803 37839651 37429603 36949594 36699683 37169897 38039953 38459899 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 09:40:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 05:40:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120939 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120938 FLZ000-121115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1149 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0438 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL FL COAST CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120938Z - 121115Z ISOLD WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHORE FROM NEAR FORT MYERS NWD TO TAMPA BAY AREA. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. CONVERGENCE BAND HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED JUST OFF THE WCOAST THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY AUGMENTED BY A WEAK LAND BREEZE. SATL AND TAMPA RADAR SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN TSTMS ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE BAND. TPA VWP EXHIBITS ABOUT 30 KTS OF SFC-1KM SHEAR FOR A STORM MOTION 200/14 KTS. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF TSTMS OFFSHORE HAVE SHOWN LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM FORT MEYERS NWD TO TAMPA BAY...WITH EVEN HIGHER WATERSPOUT RISKS. THE TORNADO THREAT PROBABLY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST THROUGH MID-MORNING AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..RACY.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW... 28048324 28308272 27618186 26388176 26018188 26278242 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 12:47:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 08:47:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121245 FLZ000-121415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1150 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121245Z - 121415Z TORNADO/WATERSPOUT THREATS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN AN HOUR OR TWO. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT ACROSS KTPA/KMLB. S OF THIS FRONT...TROPICAL AIR MASS EXISTS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWED NO CINH AND 3800 J/KG MUCAPE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT AS HEATING COMMENCES...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN FL AND MOVE NNWWD INTO CNTRL FL. HIGHER 0-1KM SRH VALUES EXIST VCNTY THE WARM FRONT...BUT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER MOST OF CNTRL AND SRN FL THROUGH THE MORNING AS ALBERTO MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE WCOAST. AS A RESULT...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE AFTN AND ACROSS THE CNTRL PARTS OF THE STATE. ..RACY.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 27528282 28388271 28648070 28108035 26597973 25688007 25548189 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 15:10:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 11:10:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121509 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121509 NCZ000-SCZ000-121715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NC/SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121509Z - 121715Z MONITORING PORTIONS OF SRN/CENTRAL NC AND NRN SC FOR POSSIBLE WW BY 17-18Z. AT 15Z...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER...BUT A BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDED NEAR A LINE FROM HKY TO FAY AND EWN. WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AROUND RDU...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS WRN VA/NC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL HAVE TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONCE SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOP...MLCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE MAY SUPPORT BANDS OF STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..IMY.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 35798136 36248032 35857874 35927581 35277570 33757895 34228103 35068188 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 16:38:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 12:38:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121637 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121636 FLZ000-121830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1152 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 466... VALID 121636Z - 121830Z TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SWRN FL PENINSULA. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST HOUR AS THE MORE CELLULAR STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...THE VAD WIND PROFILE AT TAMPA BAY SHOWS THE LOW SHEAR...1 KM SHEAR NEAR 4O KT ...REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE WEST CENTRAL FL COAST...IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF ALBERTO. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR SRQ TO PIE. ALSO...STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK THERMAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS NORTH OF A DAB-FMY LINE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE RESULTING IN STRONGER INSTABILITY SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THIS MAY AID IN UPDRAFT STRENGTH/POSSIBLE TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..IMY.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 29178327 29458104 28468031 26418085 25548133 25888231 27678311 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 18:06:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 14:06:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121804 ORZ000-WAZ000-122000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN ORE/WA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121804Z - 122000Z ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND BEGIN POSING A SEVERE THREAT BEFORE 21Z AS THEY MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL ORE/SCENTRAL WA. A WW MAY BE NEED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 21Z. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN CASCADES OF ORE...WHERE SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND SOME OF THESE TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NNEWD INTO THESE AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR /AREA WILL RESIDE ALONG MID LEVEL JET AXIS/ WILL SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND THREAT FOR SVR HAIL GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. FURTHER EAST...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF ERN ORE/SERN WA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE REMAINDER OF NERN ORE/ERN WA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SCENTRAL ORE/NERN CA. THESE CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT HEATING AND ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION...THUS DELAYING ISOLATED SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION THROUGH 21Z. HOWEVER WITH TIME IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES SHOULD POSE A SVR THREAT TO THIS REGION AFTER 21Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR... 45542128 43312219 42242180 42112147 42582010 44431853 45251792 47451720 48181750 48481977 46512093 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 18:07:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 14:07:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121804 ORZ000-WAZ000-122000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN ORE/WA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121804Z - 122000Z ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND BEGIN POSING A SEVERE THREAT BEFORE 21Z AS THEY MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL ORE/SCENTRAL WA. A WW MAY BE NEED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 21Z. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN CASCADES OF ORE...WHERE SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND SOME OF THESE TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NNEWD INTO THESE AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR /AREA WILL RESIDE ALONG MID LEVEL JET AXIS/ WILL SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND THREAT FOR SVR HAIL GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. FURTHER EAST...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF ERN ORE/SERN WA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE REMAINDER OF NERN ORE/ERN WA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SCENTRAL ORE/NERN CA. THESE CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT HEATING AND ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION...THUS DELAYING ISOLATED SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION THROUGH 21Z. HOWEVER WITH TIME IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES SHOULD POSE A SVR THREAT TO THIS REGION AFTER 21Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR... 45542128 43312219 42242180 42112147 42582010 44431853 45251792 47451720 48181750 48481977 46512093  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 18:07:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 14:07:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121805 COZ000-NMZ000-122000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...FAR NE NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121805Z - 122000Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. VISIBLE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE FRONT RANGE. THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND ENCOUNTER MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW STRONGLY VEERING WIND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME LIKELY AS THE STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 9.0 C/KM GENERALLY WEST OF I-25. THIS SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER PEAKS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP. ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36290327 36180449 36930484 37660494 38790496 39280456 39110344 37610306 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 18:09:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 14:09:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121805 COZ000-NMZ000-122000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...FAR NE NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121805Z - 122000Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. VISIBLE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE FRONT RANGE. THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND ENCOUNTER MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW STRONGLY VEERING WIND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME LIKELY AS THE STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 9.0 C/KM GENERALLY WEST OF I-25. THIS SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER PEAKS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP. ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36290327 36180449 36930484 37660494 38790496 39280456 39110344 37610306  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 19:18:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 15:18:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121916 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121916 MTZ000-IDZ000-WAZ000-122145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1155 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ID PANHANDLE...FAR NERN WA/NWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121916Z - 122145Z ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP EITHER NORTH OF OR EMBEDDED IN ADVANCING CLOUD SHIELD MOVING ACROSS SERN WA/NERN ORE. OVERALL SVR THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL THROUGH 22Z...AND A WW IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE THEN. AIRMASS OVER NERN WA...NRN ID PANHANDLE AND NWRN MT WILL LIKELY SEE SLOW DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS...AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN ORE. EMBEDDED ELEVATED CELLS WITHIN THIS CLOUD MASS HAVE SHOWN BRIEF SIGNS OF INCREASING IN THE LAST HOUR...BUT THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL SHEAR AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. A MODIFIED 12Z OTX SOUNDING AND RECENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES FROM 78-80 DEG IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE REMAINS A SHORT WINDOW THAT CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NERN WA/NRN ID PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN MT BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD OFFSET HEATING FOR SEVERAL HRS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY BE VERY ISOLATED. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE MAIN SVR THREAT WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE INITIAL CLOUD MASS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA /AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/ WHEN DESTABILIZATION INCREASES AFTER 22Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED AFTER THAT TIME. ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX...PDT... 48941614 48881865 48571927 46911945 46521900 46251781 46731541 47361410 48861406 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 19:59:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 15:59:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121958 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121958 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-122130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121958Z - 122130Z A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY INITIATING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WWD ACROSS WEST TX TO NEAR CLOVIS NM. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S F...THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AS SHOWN BY RUC ANALYSIS 700-500 MB LIFTED INDEX. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS BUT SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EXPANDS ACROSS THE WEST TX CAPROCK. THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 33470168 33660269 34320315 35820302 36380257 36580152 35880063 34610061 33850102 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 20:36:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 16:36:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122034 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-122200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1157 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SC...NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467... VALID 122034Z - 122200Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOW A LARGE MCS ONGOING ACROSS NRN SC AND SRN NC. THE STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE MCS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM NEAR GREENVILLE SC TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE NC. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F AND MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST COAST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP... 34107762 33788012 33868159 34038262 34558287 35228219 35338010 35627815 35597635 34787602 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 21:20:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 17:20:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122118 SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-122315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0418 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY/SWRN SD AND THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122118Z - 122315Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS MAY DEVELOP EAST OF MAIN SFC TROUGH ACROSS ERN WY...AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SWRN SD IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. RELATIVELY MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE SVR THREAT SHOULD NOT BE ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR A WW. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF LOW-MID 50S DEWPTS EXTENDING NWWD FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE NWWD INTO SCENTRAL MT. RECENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CINH WAS DECREASING RAPIDLY JUST EAST OF A SFC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR CYS TO SHR. INCIPIENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SVR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS /BY 22Z/ AS IT MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY. ALSO MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAKENING CINH MAY ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BLACK HILLS. RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS /20 KTS/ DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD MAINLY SUPPORT MULTICELL TSTM MODE. HOWEVER...MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG/ COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW... 42830289 43830307 44580360 44640540 44350679 43910697 42860609 41710512 41180449 41250335 41850290 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 21:48:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 17:48:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122147 OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-122345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1159 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NERN NM AND FAR WRN OK/NWRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468... VALID 122147Z - 122345Z CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE RATON MESA REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS UNION COUNTY NM. AREA EAST OF WW 468 WILL BE MONITORED FOR A NEW WW IN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN CO IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. NORTH OF WW 468 ACROSS NERN CO...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANOTHER WW. A CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE RATON MESA/NERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SLOWLY ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS INTO A MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS /MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG/ EXTENDING ACROSS THE NWRN TX AND WRN OK PANHANDLES. EWD EXTENT OF SVR THREAT INTO SERN CO WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS DUE TO PRESENCE OF MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. DESPITE UPPER RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS /35-40 KTS/ DUE TO PRESENCE OF ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 10-15 KTS. THUS STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY SHOW SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH...SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS EXIST...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS MORE VEERED...SUPPORTING SIMILAR VERTICAL SHEAR AS AREAS SOUTH. ISOLATED STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INVOF COLO SPRINGS AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME SVR IN THE NEXT HR OR SO UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THIS MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE DEN AREA IN THE SAME TIME FRAME AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED INVOF OF DEN CYCLONE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN NERN CO. ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 39190345 37380285 36600142 35500143 35040233 35700493 36320505 39350549 40600533 40840409 40680362 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 22:30:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 18:30:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122228 MTZ000-IDZ000-130030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1160 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID AND WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122228Z - 130030Z ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS IN ID AND SWRN MT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. AIRMASS OVER NWRN MT AND NRN ID SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 00Z. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU OVER THE NRN CENTRAL MTS OF ID AND FAR SWRN MT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN ORE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG/ AND WEAKENING CINH BASED ON RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH APPROACHING UPPER FORCING AND CONTINUED HEATING/UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 00Z. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR DISCRETE CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER SVR COVERAGE IS INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF UPPER JET AND IT/S EFFECTS ON HEATING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...OTX... 47091308 48451404 49051439 48471682 46461562 45401484 44771435 45381186 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 22:34:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 18:34:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122233 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-130000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1161 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467... VALID 122233Z - 130000Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW TIL 01Z EXPIRATION. NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN MYRTLE BEACH AND WILMINGTON...WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY THROUGH 00-01Z SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/THERMAL LOW ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HEATED INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP. THEREAFTER...STABILIZING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING TRENDS. DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EAST OF BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH...IS PROGGED TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST OF SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 03Z...WHEN CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH MORE RAPIDLY. ..KERR.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34038257 34288198 34458099 35128033 35527994 35597927 35567795 35717671 35697568 35237548 34897624 34567720 33997760 33727822 33527922 33838022 33698094 33508155 33348227 33408312 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 23:48:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 19:48:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122346 FLZ000-GAZ000-130145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1162 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 469... VALID 122346Z - 130145Z TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT COULD INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. A NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED BY SCHEDULED 02Z EXPIRATION OF WW 469. LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE NEAR SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF TROPICAL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. AS ALBERTO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...BAND OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD...INLAND ACROSS THE BIG BEND...PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS GAINESVILLE DURING THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TAMPA AREA. MODIFICATION OF RAIN- COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER TO ONE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ...IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REGIME BENEATH LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS... DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. BUT RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD INCREASE IN THE IMMEDIATE TAMPA AS EARLY AS 03Z. UNTIL THEN...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SEEMS MINIMAL. ..KERR.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29068290 29628300 30228274 30408207 30178143 29128152 28578194 27718239 27338271 27708303 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 00:15:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 20:15:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 130014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130014 MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-130215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1163 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ORE...SRN WA...NRN ID AND NWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470...472... VALID 130014Z - 130215Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY NRN/ERN PORTIONS OF WW 470...AS SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SW OF INITIAL ACTIVITY. OVER WW 472...CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER NERN ORE WILL MAINTAIN INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING INTO NRN ID OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. ADDITIONAL SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE ID/MT BORDER AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME ERN PORTION OF WW 472 AND JUST EAST OF WW 472. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH ERN ORE...WAS SUPPORTING CLUSTER OF STG-SVR STORMS OVER WW 472 /NERN ORE/ WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS. SEVERAL STORMS HAVE LIKEWISE EXHIBITED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND THE SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO NRN ID. TO THE WEST THE SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER NERN PORTIONS OF WW 470 AHEAD OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE BUT HAS LIKELY BEEN DIMINISHED OVER SRN WW 470 DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH MAY BE CLEARED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OVER THE BITTEROOTS OF FAR WRN MT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY EAST OF WW 472 SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF ANY OF THIS SVR THREAT...AND A NEW WW EAST OF WW 472 IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..CROSBIE.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 46662075 46512080 46132144 43972124 43941841 43431842 44831480 45411385 46761340 47801429 47571667 47141928 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 00:51:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 20:51:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 130049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130049 COZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-130245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1164 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468...471... VALID 130049Z - 130245Z CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND RECENTLY...BUT REDEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS AND TERRAIN/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY STILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT FOR THE NRN HALF OF WW 468 AND MOST OF 471 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. VIS SAT AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING GENERALLY NWWD WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. SEVERAL ONGOING GENERALLY WEAK CELLS MAY FLARE UP AND POSE A SVR THREAT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME WHEN THESE BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE NRN HALF OF WW 468 AND WW 471. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE AS UPSLOPE FLOW GETS LOCALLY ENHANCED AS AIRMASS REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED /PER THE 00Z DNR SOUNDING/. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS EVENING...AND MAY SUPPORT THE SVR THREAT INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WW/S 468 AND 470 FOR A COUPLE HRS AFTER DARK...GIVEN THE MOIST 850 MB LEVEL AND RELATIVELY WEAK INHIBITION NOTED ON THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING. ..CROSBIE.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 41080259 41060467 39190521 37020504 36850465 37000303 38570289 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 04:55:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 00:55:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 130453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130453 FLZ000-130630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1165 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 473... VALID 130453Z - 130630Z CONTINUE WW. VWP FROM TAMPA NOW INDICATES 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN 1 KM OF THE SURFACE...AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST SIMILAR FLOW DEVELOPING EAST NORTHEAST OF TAMPA TOWARD NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGEST NORTHEAST OF TAMPA...WHERE SURFACE FLOW IS MAINTAINING A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE VICINITY OF REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MODIFYING RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS. SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE NOW IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY INCREASE THROUGH 06-08Z WEST/NORTHWEST OF ORLANDO INTO THE OCALA AREA...AS CENTER OF ALBERTO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. ..KERR.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 28248157 28028181 28128243 28508244 28898246 29188227 29088167 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 07:21:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 03:21:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 130719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130719 FLZ000-GAZ000-130845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL...NRN FL AND EXTREME SERN/SCNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130719Z - 130845Z TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY NEWD ABOUT 80 MILES SW OF CEDAR KEY FL AT 07Z. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT EWD FROM THE LOW AND ACROSS NRN FL JUST S OF KCTY-KGNV-KSGJ. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED ACROSS NCNTRL FL AND ALBERTO SHOULD CONTINUE ON A TRACK ENEWD TOWARD NCNTRL FL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND ALBERTO WITH THE STRONGEST BAND CURRENTLY MOVING NWD ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN FL PENINSULA. OTHER BANDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO ORGANIZE FARTHER W OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA. VWP DERIVED HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL TURNING HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NE FROM EARLY IN THE EVE...MAINLY FROM THE LAKELAND AREA NWD WITH 0-1KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD...HIGHEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST WHERE THEY APPROACH THE WARM FRONT. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE INCREASING ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER AREA AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLIGHTLY NWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVER SRN GA. AS A RESULT...ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NRN FL AND EXTREME SRN GA. ..RACY.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 26508249 28998390 29588491 30878432 31648202 31178123 29538074 27868051 26368091 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 11:23:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 07:23:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131122 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131121 FLZ000-GAZ000-131145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1167 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 473...474... VALID 131121Z - 131145Z WT473 HAS A 12Z EXPIRATION AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL WFO/S...A DECISION WILL BE MADE WHETHER TO ISSUE A NEW WW. DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTO HAS BEEN ROTATING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN FL. THIS BAND HAS LARGELY MOVED OFFSHORE...EXCEPT THE SRN END THAT TRAILS SWWD ACROSS THE CAPE AND INTO THE NAPLES AREA. PER LATEST VWP FROM TBW/MLB...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE VEERED ACROSS CNTRL FL AND EFFECTIVELY LESSENED THE 0-1KM SRH. FARTHER TO THE N...JAX VWP REMAINS FAVORABLY SHEARED FOR TORNADOES. BUT...SATL SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WRAPPING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY PROVE DETRIMENTAL IN SUPPORTING SUSTAINED BANDING STRUCTURES/CONVECTION. PRIND THAT THERE WILL BE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MAINLY AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST ACROSS CNTRL FL THROUGH LATE MORNING. FARTHER N...WITHIN THE RICHER HELICITY ENVIRONMENT...GIVEN A SUSTAINED STORM...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN WT474. ..RACY.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 26428203 30298372 31478232 31238040 28508017 26608131 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 18:03:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 14:03:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131801 SCZ000-GAZ000-131930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1169 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SC...SE GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131801Z - 131930Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN SC AND ERN GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF ERN GA AND SRN SC FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE CENTER OF A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXISTS JUST OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THIS FEATURE IS CREATING STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONG SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL ROTATING STORMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 50-75 MILES OFFSHORE FROM SAVANNA GA. AS THIS CONVECTION APPROACHES THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX... 31278102 31608178 32048183 32858114 33588017 33417943 32757918 31798030 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 18:42:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 14:42:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131841 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131841 SDZ000-132015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1170 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131841Z - 132015Z A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE SD. HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN NEB AND WRN SD. A BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM WRN ND INTO ERN SD ALONG THE SRN SIDE OF 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET. CELLS ARE INITIATING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET ALONG A SFC TROUGH AND STRONG GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY. THE MID-LEVEL JET IS CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE SD. IF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CAN INITIATE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F...THEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... 43739732 43839946 44450009 45469974 45779823 45149685 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 18:54:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 14:54:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131852 MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-131945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1171 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NRN ID / FAR WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131852Z - 131945Z WW MAY BE ISSUED BY 20Z FOR PARTS OF WRN/NRN ID INTO FAR WRN MT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG/E OF CLOUD BAND/BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 AT MSO...AND BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG AT PRESENT OVER WRN MT AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NRN ID/MT BORDER. ADDITIONAL HEATING EXPECTED TO AID IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION/WEAKENING INHIBITION FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED CU ALREADY FORMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL ID/ WRN MT WHERE STRONGEST INSOLATION IS OCCURRING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. A FURTHER INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX APPROACHES REGION FROM THE SOUTH...MAINTAINING THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..PETERS.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 48681678 48991663 49011411 47761331 46671298 44751365 44641453 43531492 43091585 43861727 48741698 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 20:05:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 16:05:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132003 SDZ000-132200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1172 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132003Z - 132200Z STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 21Z ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM NEAR SPEARFISH TO PIERRE SD. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F AND THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING CUMULUS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE BLACK HILLS AND FURTHER EAST BETWEEN PIERRE AND HURON SD. AS THE CAPPING INVERSION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43189908 42990210 43470377 44630355 44940130 44589880 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 20:39:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 16:39:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132037 TXZ000-132230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1173 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132037Z - 132230Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SE TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR WACO INTO THE HOUSTON AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD ACROSS EAST TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES IN PLACE WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB. THIS SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. THE LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... 29189489 29359542 29689577 30359578 30679503 30219410 29369437 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 22:40:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 18:40:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132238 SDZ000-WYZ000-140015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1174 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477... VALID 132238Z - 140015Z CONTINUE WW. SHARP UPPER RIDGING IS GENERALLY INHIBITIVE...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY. THIS IS OCCURRING MAINLY WHERE OROGRAPHY/STRONG HEATING WEAKENED INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY JUST SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS...AND JUST NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN. GIVEN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG...FAVORABLE SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG VEERING OF WIND FIELDS FROM EASTERLY/SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH HEIGHT...WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFYING STORMS THROUGH 00-01Z. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ..KERR.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 44730403 45100314 44760220 44650006 44409863 43999837 43559863 43259965 43410026 43760086 43800142 43430261 43460349 44030436 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 23:09:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 19:09:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132307 MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-140030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1175 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NRN ID / FAR WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476... VALID 132307Z - 140030Z INITIAL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE WRN TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH SRN ID...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF MSO TO EKO. THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER ID IS INDICATIVE OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC JET MAXIMUM ADVANCING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN NV. THE 1900 UTC TFX RAOB SHOWED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH A WELL MIXED...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON INSOLATION PRIOR TO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO MLCAPES NOW IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG OVER NORTHWEST MT TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG OVER THE SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS AND TREASURE VALLEY. AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS AT OR ABOVE 45 TO 50 KTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ..BRIGHT.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 43201697 49021675 48981356 43301413 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 23:46:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 19:46:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132344 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-140145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1176 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN GA THROUGH THE CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 475... VALID 132344Z - 140145Z CONTINUE WW. AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED BY SCHEDULED 02Z EXPIRATION OF WW 475. TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REFLECTED BY MID/UPPER 70S DEW POINTS REMAINS OFFSHORE...AHEAD OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE EVIDENT EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO AREAS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. INTERSECTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH WEAK WARM FRONTAL ZONE APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR MAIN...GROWING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF CHARLESTON...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHEN/IF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INLAND. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS NEAR 70F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK CONDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...EVEN WITH ONSET OF WEAK DIURNAL COOLING...AND LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF ALBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...AS ITS CENTER LIFTS NORTH OF WAYCROSS GA TOWARD THE SAVANNAH VALLEY THROUGH 03-06Z. ..KERR.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 32768191 33478180 33988086 34378015 35017896 34287807 33407866 32598009 32158088 31958132 32238166 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 02:41:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 22:41:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140240 SDZ000-NEZ000-140415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1177 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0940 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477... VALID 140240Z - 140415Z CONTINUE WW. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WW BY 04Z EXPIRATION. ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...AND IS PROBABLY BEING SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...FORMING AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. THIS JET MAY STRENGTHEN UP TO 40 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF HIGH PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE. THOUGH CAPPING BENEATH UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY...AN EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03-06Z...NEAR/SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF PIERRE INTO AREAS WEST OF CHAMBERLAIN. IF THIS OCCURS...OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES COULD BE SIGNIFICANT...SUPPORTING A FEW DOWNBURSTS...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL. OTHERWISE...FAVORABLY SHEARED FLOW IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43760236 44140205 44110076 44029952 43899913 43379905 42880002 42870053 43220164 43280216 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 06:21:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 02:21:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140619 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140619 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-140815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1178 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC/NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 478... VALID 140619Z - 140815Z 06Z SFC ANALYSIS/RADAR DEPICT THE REMNANTS OF ALBERTO JUST S OF KAGS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NEWD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SC/NC AND GIVEN STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS VCNTY THIS BOUNDARY...THE LOW SHOULD MIGRATE NEWD ALONG THIS PATH THROUGH 12Z. THE LONGEST-LIVED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BEEN LIFTING NWD ACROSS SC WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS TRACKING EAST OF US 52. HERE...TSTMS HAVE BEEN ENCOUNTERING THE WARM FRONT AS THEY MOVE NEWD. 0-1KM SHEAR DERIVED FROM THE CHS VWP WAS QUITE STRONG...ON THE ORDER OF 360+ M2/S2 AND CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADOES. SPIRAL BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...BUT STRONGER STORMS SHOULD FAVOR THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE EWD TO THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES TO AREAS NEAR/E OF KFLO THROUGH 08Z. OTHER STORMS COULD FORM OFFSHORE AND MOVE NWD INTO SRN COASTAL NC LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE STRONGEST LLJ AXIS SHIFTS EWD...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY SPREAD UP THE COAST INTO ERN NC NEAR/AFTER 12Z. ..RACY.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33038147 34907863 35627745 34977644 34137670 33047839 32057983 31798065 32328145 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 06:59:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 02:59:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140658 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-140930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1179 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL ND AND CNTRL/NERN SD CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 140658Z - 140930Z NW-SE ORIENTED BANDS OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SCNTRL ND AND CNTRL/NERN SD. HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVELS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STRONG GRT BASIN UPPER LOW. THIS HAS LIKELY AUGMENTED THE LLJ WITH 30 KT H85 SLY FLOW NOW BEING OBSERVED ON THE RAPID CITY VWP. THE LLJ WAS IMPINGING ON AN H85-H7 BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE INCREASING TSTMS EARLY THIS MORNING JUST TO THE NE OF A STRONG CAP SITUATED OVER THE HIGHER PLAINS. RUC GUIDANCE HAS THE LLJ GRADUALLY VEERING THROUGH THE MORNING... MAXIMIZING WARM ADVECTION FROM SCNTRL ND SEWD INTO ECNTRL SD. THUS...ONE OR MORE BANDS OF STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 09-12Z. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WAS GREATER THAN 50 KTS. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE INITIAL CELLS TO RAPIDLY ORGANIZE GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. THE ORGANIZATION OF ANY GIVEN UPDRAFT WILL PROBABLY SHORT-LIVED AS THE NUMBER OF STORMS INCREASE. BUT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SEWD WHILE STRONGER CELLS FAVOR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE BANDS CLOSER TO THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT. ..RACY.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45170143 47550355 47720253 47100048 45959691 44579661 43949739 44109982 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 14:45:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 10:45:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141444 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141443 SDZ000-NDZ000-141615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1180 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0943 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ND/NRN-NERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141443Z - 141615Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO NRN-NERN SD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH PRIMARY SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN NRN WY ESEWD ACROSS SRN SD INTO SRN MN...WHILE A SECONDARY TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDED NEWD ACROSS NWRN SD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN ND. 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED A STRONG CAP REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS STATES... WITH ONGOING AND NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FORMING AND TRACKING SEWD ALONG THE NRN-NERN PART OF THE CAP. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER SERN MT...WITH THIS IMPULSE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ITS NEWD MOVEMENT AND TRACK MORE ELY INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN ND/NRN SD...WITH ACTIVITY REMAINING MAINLY ELEVATED. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS MID LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN SSWLY LLJ INTO CENTRAL/ERN SD AIDING IN FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SSEWD ACROSS FAR SERN SD AND SWRN MN HAS STABILIZED THE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION...AND MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE EWD EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE NEW ACTIVITY OVER SRN ND/NRN SD. ..PETERS.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45880125 46330150 46660123 46610005 46429874 46079762 45509698 44889727 44689794 45259905 45560073 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 15:15:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 11:15:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141513 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141513 NCZ000-141715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1181 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 479... VALID 141513Z - 141715Z ...ISOLD TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS THE REMAINS OF ALBERTO MOVE ACROSS ERN NC... LATEST SFC AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS PLACE ALBERTO BETWEEN SSC /SUMPTER SC/ AND UDG /DARLINGTON SC/ WITH RECENT WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AT SUMPTER. WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER TO NEAR MEB/PGV...WHERE WINDS HAVE MAINTAINED S/SELY COMPONENT. STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE FALLS /2-4 MB PER 3 HOURS/ ARE FOCUSED NEAR FORT BRAGG NC WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN ISALLOBARIC ELY COMPONENT. VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF NC. LATEST 0-1KM SRH VALUES RANGE FROM 300-500 M2/S2 PER VAD WIND DATA FROM BOTH RALEIGH AND MOREHEAD CITY RADARS. ..TAYLOR.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 34657827 34927912 35237838 36437540 35687538 34907537 34257706 34677766 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 16:38:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 12:38:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141637 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141636 MTZ000-WYZ000-141800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1182 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WY / SOUTH CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141636Z - 141800Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN WY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS MOVING NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN WY/SRN MT INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND/OR WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE EWD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THIS SAME AREA OF INSTABILITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER ERN ID/NRN UT...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SWLY 70 KT MID LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM UT INTO SRN WY. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH/PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE...FROM SWRN MT INTO NRN-NERN UT. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN WY/SOUTH CENTRAL MT TO THE WEST OF THE BIG HORN BASIN. A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS OVER CENTRAL AND NERN WY WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MOIST ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE BIG HORN BASIN. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING HAS ALLOWED THE AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/... WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AIDING IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. ENELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT BENEATH DEEP SSWLY FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 43840942 44560937 46100936 46770947 46910832 46840730 46680646 44940597 43610685 43430730 43470845 43590918 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 18:49:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 14:49:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141847 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141847 NCZ000-142045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC/OUTER BANKS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 479... VALID 141847Z - 142045Z ...TORNADO THREAT IS BECOMING MORE LIMITED AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME ERN PORTIONS OF NC INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS... CENTER OF ALBERTO CIRCULATION IS NOW AROUND 60-70 MILES SE OF RALEIGH-DURHAM...WITH WINDS ALREADY VEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST AT GSB/ISO. LATEST RADAR DATA FROM MOREHEAD CITY NC SHOW A FEW STRONG CELLS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE OUTER BANKS. ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ESPECIALLY NEAR HSE/MQI WHERE SFC WINDS ARE SELY...MAXIMIZING LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. EARLIER REPORT OF A TORNADO WAS RECEIVED IN MOREHEAD CITY A COUPLE HOURS AGO. THREAT WILL END FAIRLY SOON ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER...AND WATCH 479 IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 20Z. ..TAYLOR.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... 34697611 35027705 35617752 35827695 36347573 36397536 34897521 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 20:34:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 16:34:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142032 MTZ000-WYZ000-142100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1184 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481... VALID 142032Z - 142100Z WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR SERN MT. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO SPREAD NWD AND NOW EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT SEWD INTO SERN MT/WEST CENTRAL SD...WHILE A COLD FRONT PROGRESSED EWD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND INTO CENTRAL WY. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN MOIST WARM SECTOR HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ AND A WEAKENING CAP ACROSS SE MT/FAR NRN-NERN WY. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOW CENTERED OVER ERN ID/WRN WY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE REST OF NRN WY AND NRN/ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPPORTING THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND STRONGER CAP PER 18Z GGW SOUNDING SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NRN MT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT. ..PETERS.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 48150648 45930519 44960520 45000841 45040937 46481029 48061066 48951104 48900828 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 20:35:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 16:35:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142033 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-142200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1185 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0333 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB/ERN CO/EXTREME WRN KS/EXTREME SW SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142033Z - 142200Z ...ISOLD HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF LEE TROUGH... TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW/MID 100S ACROSS THE CO HIGH PLAINS INTO SW NEB. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ISOLD STORM FORMED JUST EAST OF SNY WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH BASED CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS SE CO NEAR LAA AND ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS. LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL BE MOST FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. GIVEN EXCESSIVE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS...ISOLD STRONG/DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ..TAYLOR.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 37050188 37020292 37800376 39460358 40610371 42310435 43840435 44330409 44360280 41490151 39200127 38100120 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 20:36:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 16:36:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142032 MTZ000-WYZ000-142100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1184 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481... VALID 142032Z - 142100Z WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR SERN MT. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO SPREAD NWD AND NOW EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT SEWD INTO SERN MT/WEST CENTRAL SD...WHILE A COLD FRONT PROGRESSED EWD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND INTO CENTRAL WY. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN MOIST WARM SECTOR HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ AND A WEAKENING CAP ACROSS SE MT/FAR NRN-NERN WY. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOW CENTERED OVER ERN ID/WRN WY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE REST OF NRN WY AND NRN/ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPPORTING THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND STRONGER CAP PER 18Z GGW SOUNDING SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NRN MT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT. ..PETERS.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 48150648 45930519 44960520 45000841 45040937 46481029 48061066 48951104 48900828  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 20:36:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 16:36:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142033 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-142200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1185 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0333 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB/ERN CO/EXTREME WRN KS/EXTREME SW SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142033Z - 142200Z ...ISOLD HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF LEE TROUGH... TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW/MID 100S ACROSS THE CO HIGH PLAINS INTO SW NEB. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ISOLD STORM FORMED JUST EAST OF SNY WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH BASED CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS SE CO NEAR LAA AND ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS. LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL BE MOST FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. GIVEN EXCESSIVE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS...ISOLD STRONG/DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ..TAYLOR.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 37050188 37020292 37800376 39460358 40610371 42310435 43840435 44330409 44360280 41490151 39200127 38100120  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 21:10:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 17:10:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142108 WYZ000-MTZ000-142215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL WY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 480... VALID 142108Z - 142215Z AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM OR TWO REMAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO /22-23Z/...BUT GREATER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NNE INTO SERN MT. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORM WAS LOCATED OVER BIG HORN COUNTY MT...WHILE WEAKER CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE VALID PART OF WW 480 /ERN PARK TO SHERIDAN COUNTIES WY/. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED WINDS ACROSS THE WY COUNTIES OF PARK/BIG HORN AND WASHAKIE HAD VEERED TO WLY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING AIR MASS MAY CONTINUE TO STABILIZE LIMITING ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WW 480 COULD BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO THE SCHEDULED 15/00Z EXPIRATION TIME. ..PETERS.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW... 44110713 44020901 45010982 44940601 44570605 44480665 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 22:49:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 18:49:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142247 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-150015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT / SWRN ND / NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482...483... VALID 142247Z - 150015Z THROUGH 01Z...EXPECT GREATEST SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM NEAR AND S OF MLS INTO FAR SWRN ND AND NWRN SD. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NECESSARY TO THE N OF WWS 482 AND 483. AS OF 2225Z...BILLINGS RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED STORMS EXHIBITING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER ERN ROSEBUD COUNTY MOVING 220/30 KTS. HAIL FOUR INCHES IN DIAMETER WAS REPORTED WITH THE NORTHERN-MOST CELL WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT STORM MOTIONS INDICATES THAT NRN PORTION OF THIS STORM CLUSTER WILL MOVE N OF WW 482 INTO PRAIRIE COUNTY MT BETWEEN 2330 AND 0000Z. INTENSIFICATION OF MORE RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM CARTER COUNTY MT INTO HARDING...BUTTE AND MEADE COUNTIES IN SD ALSO APPEARS LIKELY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH INCREASES FROM THE SW. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...CORRIDOR FROM NEAR 2WX SEWD ALONG IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE A COMPARATIVELY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. HERE...WEAKER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING COUPLED WITH LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD MORE DISCRETE...SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THIS AREA...AN UPGRADE TO TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ..MEAD.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46260614 46850593 47290511 47240366 46630221 45870184 45110181 44850227 44840298 45140385 45500520 45530582 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 00:54:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 20:54:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150052 NDZ000-MTZ000-150145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN MT AND NWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150052Z - 150145Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NE OF WW 484 BETWEEN 0100-0130Z AND AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. AS OF 0040Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A SUPERCELL TO BOW ECHO EVOLUTION OVER NRN DAWSON COUNTY MT WITH A GUST TO 79 KTS RECENTLY OBSERVED AT GDV. THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPEARS TO HAVE ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY /OBSERVED SYSTEM MOTION OF 210 AT 40-45 KTS/ AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...STORMS WOULD MOVE N OF WW 484 BY 0130Z. INCREASING LINEAR STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 KT WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG CREST OF EVOLVING BOW ECHO GENERALLY W OF HIGHWAY 16. ..MEAD.. 06/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... 48130524 48770527 49140419 49070279 48420216 48220258 48050367 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 02:59:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 22:59:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150257 SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-150430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1189 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0957 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL ND/SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150257Z - 150430Z THROUGH 04Z...GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 484. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL NEB INTO S-CNTRL SD. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 04 0R 05Z E OF CURRENT WW. AS OF 0240Z...REGIONAL RADAR...IR SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER WIBAUX COUNTY MT EWD INTO GOLDEN VALLEY AND BILLINGS COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL ND WITH A GENERAL MOTION OF 230 AT 35 KTS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY AND ON THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NNEWD INTO CNTRL MT. PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP FIELDS AND LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE STRONG SELY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD ENHANCE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW INTO ONGOING STORMS...MAINTAINING A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EWD TOWARD THE MO RIVER OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE S...A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS OF 0245Z OVER BENNETT COUNTY SD AND CHERRY COUNTY NEB...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOWER LATITUDE IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH MEAN NRN ROCKIES TROUGH. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS S OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE S OF RAP SEWD INTO N-CNTRL NEB. GIVEN THAT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WELL N OF THIS AREA...AS WELL AS MORE INTENSE DPVA...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND NO ADDITIONAL WW IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 06/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...GGW... 47000437 47640435 48010373 47940129 47040012 45189974 43149943 42529972 42310028 42550123 42970180 44550258 45590268 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 05:50:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 01:50:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150548 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150548 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-150645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1190 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN HIGH PLAINS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 484... VALID 150548Z - 150645Z VALID PORTIONS OF WT 484 ACROSS WRN ND AND WRN SD HAS AN EXPIRATION OF 07Z. LINGERING TSTMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS NWRN/NCNTRL SD EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOCATED FARTHER W. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING RECENTLY VCNTY SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER AND UPSTREAM ACROSS SCNTRL MANT SWD INTO EXTREME NERN MT ALONG A SFC TROUGH. RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS WERE ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE LAYER AND SHOULD MAINLY BE AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT. GIVEN THE OVERALL DECREASE IN TORNADO PROBABILITIES AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR ONLY ISOLD LARGE HAIL...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT RENEWED WW WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE HIGHER PLAINS THIS MORNING. ..RACY.. 06/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 43410178 43730476 48440718 49000730 49860727 50250378 49400135 47120052 44149973 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 06:09:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 02:09:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150608 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150607 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-150830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1191 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA AND EXTREME SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150607Z - 150830Z ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA AND PERHAPS EXTREME SWRN MN. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...UNLESS STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY INCREASES. PLAN VIEW OF PROFILER DATA INDICATES THAT A 60 KT H85 JET WAS IMPINGING ON A NW-SE ORIENTED SFC-H85 FRONT OVER THE NEB/SD BORDER. OVERALL INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM CNTRL-NCNTRL NEB AND MAINTENANCE OF EVE CONVECTION MOVING EWD ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER ATTEST TO THE STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION. STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP ACROSS SERN SD INTO NWRN IA. 00Z LBF SOUNDING SHOWED VERY STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES OVER 9 DEG C/KM AND THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND ISOLD LARGE HAIL. OVERALL ORGANIZATION WILL BE BRIEF WITH ANY INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFT GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AOB 35 KTS. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWED A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND A SHALLOW NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER. THUS...GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER THERE WILL BE A LARGER SCALE ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE MORNING THAT MIGHT INCREASE RISKS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HAIL OR HIGH WINDS. THUS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR INCREASES IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE. ..RACY.. 06/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 44019933 44049693 43679542 42659428 41719500 41979814 43159991 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 19:47:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 15:47:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 151945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151944 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-152115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1192 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE CO...NW KS...SRN AND WCNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151944Z - 152115Z AN ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS EXTREME ERN CO...NW KS AND SWRN NEB. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 21Z ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER SERN CO WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEB. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL MOVE NNEWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE CREATING FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE HIGH-BASED DUE TO LARGE TEMP-SFC DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40 TO 50 DEGREES. THIS SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT ALTHOUGH HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY EXPAND NWD ACROSS WCNTRL NEB AS THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS AND NEW STORMS INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37670253 38200342 40680269 41760192 42050091 41589955 40019982 37780112 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 20:56:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 16:56:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 152053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152053 NDZ000-SDZ000-152230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1193 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ND...NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152053Z - 152230Z AS CONVECTION INCREASES ACROSS FAR NRN SD AND SRN/CNTRL ND THIS AFTERNOON...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL DEVELOP. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL SD WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM THE LOW INTO CNTRL ND. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE TROUGH ARE IN THE 60S F AND A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX IN CNTRL SD ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL AID STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN ND. AS THE CAP WEAKENS...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STRENGTHEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 06/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45370015 45680096 46370151 47500111 48040009 48149897 47769816 47089773 46029802 45399917 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 22:00:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 18:00:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 152158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152158 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-152300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1194 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0458 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...TX/OK PNHDLS...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152158Z - 152300Z CHANCES OF SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL...WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM NERN NM ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDLS...AND SWRN KS THROUGH THE EVENING. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SHORTLY. STRONG HEATING AND DEEP MIXING ALONG NWRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS AIDED HIGH-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX PNHDL OVER THE PAST HOUR. MEANWHILE...PLUME OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH HAS PROMOTED ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS NERN NM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE/PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR. LARGE SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND HIGH DCAPE STRONGLY SUGGEST DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 06/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 37960101 37720036 35280121 33900266 34200390 35150471 37000411 37060186 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 22:45:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 18:45:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 152243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152243 NEZ000-152345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0543 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152243Z - 152345Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO DISCUSSION AREA FROM NWRN KS AND A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. AS OF 2230Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES NRN EXTENSION OF BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS WRN KS OVER RED WILLOW COUNTY NEB WITH A GENERAL STORM MOTION OF 225/25 KTS. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AMBIENT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS S-CNTRL NEB HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY MIXED THROUGH 700 MB. MOREOVER...ACCOMPANYING KINEMATIC PROFILE AND UEX VWP INDICATE MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS HOW SUBSEQUENT DEEP CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE OVER CNTRL NEB THIS EVENING GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL CO. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. ..MEAD.. 06/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... 40400087 40880059 41430016 41909982 41999884 41529833 40849833 40459861 40259952 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 23:49:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 19:49:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 152347 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152347 NEZ000-COZ000-160045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO INTO PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152347Z - 160045Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CNTRL CO IS BEGINNING TO ACT ON SWRN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS...DELINEATED BY WAVY STATIONARY BOUNDARY OR WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM S OF DEN TO W OF IML TO N OF LBF. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST SHORT TERM NAM/RUC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS NERN CO INTO PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB THROUGH 16/06Z. PRESENCE OF 45-55 KT MID-LEVEL JET AXIS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 06/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 40370247 40850290 41720229 42360085 42339995 41969966 41379981 40530100 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 00:26:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 20:26:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160024 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-160230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1197 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160024Z - 160230Z ...PORTIONS OF ERN ND/NCNTRL SD ARE BEING MONITORED FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE WATCH... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR PIR WITH OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING NWD THROUGH CNTRL ND WEST OF DVL AND JMS. ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NCNTRL SD/ERN ND THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS NOW RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S INTO SRN MANITOBA. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL ND INTO SD...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MID LEVEL SPEED MAX NOW OVER WRN ND. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOTED ON AREA VWP DATA BETWEEN MINOT AND GRAND FORKS SUGGESTS CONTINUED ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT VAD WIND DATA FROM BISMARCK AND MINOT INDICATE AROUND 40-45 KT MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER FARTHER WEST...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING. IF SUSTAINED SFC BASED CONVECTION CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY...THEN TSTMS WOULD HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. ..TAYLOR.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 44529778 44520074 48980107 49029773 48769673 46229608 44539683 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 01:09:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 21:09:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160108 NEZ000-KSZ000-160215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1198 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0808 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL KS INTO S-CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160108Z - 160215Z IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. AS OF 0100Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN INTENSE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER KEARNEY AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES OF S-CNTRL NEB...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM GRAHAM COUNTY WWD INTO GOVE AND LOGAN COUNTIES OF NWRN KS. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CAPPING INCREASES CONSIDERABLY WITH EWD EXTENT...THUS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF HOW FAR E STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN OBSERVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER GOVE AND LOGAN COUNTIES...AS WELL AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD FROM ERN CO AND INTENSIFYING SLY LLJ...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST E OF WW/S 485/486 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID... 39169957 40399963 40929931 40969861 40709801 40139800 39539817 39159866 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 02:30:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 22:30:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160228 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-160400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1199 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0928 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NEB / N-CNTRL INTO WRN KS / ERN CO / THE TX AND OK PNHDLS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485...486...488... VALID 160228Z - 160400Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PARTICULARLY WITH STORM CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE HLC AREA. HOWEVER...OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY 04-05Z. AS OF 0220Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS FROM KEARNEY AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL NEB SWWD TO GRAHAM COUNTY KS AND THEN MORE WWD INTO THOMAS AND LOGAN COUNTIES IN KS. MODIFICATION OF 00Z DDC AND AMA SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT THE CAP IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS INTO THE OK AND TX PNHDLS AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE 80S. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF MEAN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ AND RESULTANT ENHANCEMENT OF STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MORE ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS N-CNTRL KS INTO S-CNTRL NEB. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED BY AT LEAST 04-05Z OWING TO FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE CAP...THOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 38450196 39670121 40320016 40709898 40539836 39629843 38870012 36600104 35840112 35550187 35730233 36640266 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 04:31:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 00:31:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160429 SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-160600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1200 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO INTO PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB AND S-CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487... VALID 160429Z - 160600Z THROUGH 07Z...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WW AREA...PERHAPS INTO S-CNTRL SD. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SURFACE PATTERN HAS BECOME COMPLEX OWING TO EXPANSION AND MERGING OF MULTIPLE COLD POOLS. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBS AND MORESO...1000-1500 M AGL PROFILER AND VWP PLAN VIEW DATA...SUGGEST THAT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL SD SWD THROUGH N-CNTRL NEB TO A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NERN CO. AS OF 0420Z...THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXISTED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS DEEP FRONTAL ZONE FROM LOGAN COUNTY CO INTO CHEYENNE COUNTY NEB. OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE LOCATED FROM CHERRY COUNTY NEB INTO TODD AND TRIPP COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL SD. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NERN CO...COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT N AND W OF SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS FROM NEAR SNY NEWD TO NEAR AND N OF VTN THROUGH 07Z. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...THOUGH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 40730087 40400212 40500315 41860277 42810173 43530069 44059976 43819911 42319944 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 17:41:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 13:41:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 161740 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161740 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-161915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1201 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE CO...FAR NE NM...FAR SW KS...WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161740Z - 161915Z AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION BY 19Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW ACROSS NE NM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS FAR SE CO INTO WRN KS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS NM WITH A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING NEWD INTO SE CO AND THE WRN OK PANHANDLE. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE CO AND NE NM...THE ASCENT SHOULD CAUSE STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS IN SE CO ARE IN THE UPPER 40S F WITH AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS AN MCS DEVELOPS AND MOVES EWD INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36320313 36310417 36820456 37470445 38070326 38400191 38040098 37330091 36750176 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 18:00:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 14:00:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 161758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161758 NEZ000-KSZ000-161900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1202 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO N-CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161758Z - 161900Z SEVERE THREAT INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SE OF MCS ACROSS SAND HILLS OF NEB IN AREA OF FORCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 19Z. MCS ACROSS CNTRL NEB SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD AND REMAIN ELEVATED/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS INTO SD. TO THE S OF THIS...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM NEAR EAR TO THE W OF CNK. CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S/DEW POINTS IN LOWER/MID 60S. COMBINED WITH A SW-NE ZONE OF BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS FROM AREA PROFILERS...SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WITH OVERALL THREAT TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH GREATER ORGANIZATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..GRAMS.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 38959964 39889948 40679976 41250003 41620005 42169901 42549834 42149732 41529711 40729708 39879768 39249825 38909888 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 20:40:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 16:40:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162037 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-162100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1203 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 489... VALID 162037Z - 162100Z LINE OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS HAS CROSSED THE SERN CO BORDER AND MOVED INTO WRN KS AND PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 492. STRONG FORCING ATOP RESIDUAL WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SERN CO COULD STILL PROMOTE A FEW TSTMS BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING AND MUCH OF WW 489 WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..CARBIN.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36500220 36520449 39980311 39980019 39160018 38780174 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 21:04:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 17:04:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162102 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-162230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1204 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD....SWRN MN...ERN AND SCNTRL NEB...NWRN IA....CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 490...491... VALID 162102Z - 162230Z EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN/AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALIGNED WITH STRENGTHENING SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AND STORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WATCHES 490 AND 491 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AT PRESENT...A VERY INTENSE AND LONG-LIVED STORM COMPLEX MOVING NEWD AT OVER 40KT WILL CROSS TURNER AND LINCOLN COUNTIES IN SERN SD OVER THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE MOVING INTO SWRN MN BY 22Z. BOWING STRUCTURE OF THIS COMPLEX AND ORIENTATION TO 50KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS THE NRN PART OF WW 490. FARTHER SOUTH...FROM SCNTRL NEB SWD ACROSS CNTRL KS...STRONG LOW LEVEL SLY/SELY FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NWD INTO THE DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE. RESULTING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL VIGOROUS STORMS IN MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SUPERCELL MERGERS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A HAZARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TREND TOWARD LARGE SCALE LINEAR MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DEEP LAYER FRONT MAY COMMENCE AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 40689718 40649732 36989838 37019950 38709956 38780086 40660077 41410027 41519928 42939923 43319896 44239785 44189489 43259484 42949652 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 22:08:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 18:08:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162206 TXZ000-162300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1205 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0506 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY SWD INTO THE ERN PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162206Z - 162300Z THE THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 2157Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED DEEPENING CUMULUS CONVECTION AND SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT FROM CROSBY AND GARZA COUNTIES SWD TOWARD MIDLAND AND GLASSCOCK COUNTIES. HERE...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL THROUGH THE 90S...RESULTING IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /PER RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS/ WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. FURTHER HEATING ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE SHOULD SUPPORT EVENTUAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO THE ERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WRN CONCHO VALLEY. CURRENT JAYTON TX PROFILER INDICATES THAT THIS REGION IS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL. GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IT APPEARS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31140233 32960186 33710153 33810072 33729999 32000025 30440118 30460198 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 23:02:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 19:02:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162300 OKZ000-TXZ000-170030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1206 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0600 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162300Z - 170030Z THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 492 BETWEEN 00-01Z INTO WRN OK AND A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 2245Z...AMA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A RELATIVELY SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENT WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES FROM ERN ROBERTS/WRN HEMPHILL COUNTIES SWD INTO DONLEY COUNTY WITH A MOTION OF 230/35-40 KTS. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AMBIENT INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS THE FAR ERN TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO NEARLY 700 MB WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. REGIONAL PROFILERS AND RUC VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SHOW A LARGE MERIDIONAL COMPONENT OF THE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITHIN THIS LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER /AT LEAST THROUGH DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE/ OWING TO THE MODEST VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR. HOWEVER...COMPLEX WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUTFLOW-DOMINANT...SUPPORTED BY STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL IN SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THUS...IT APPEARS CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN... 36149941 36729922 36859876 36859827 36199783 35149779 34329785 34219831 34399930 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 23:28:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 19:28:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162326 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-170030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1207 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/NWRN IA/SWRN MN CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 490... VALID 162326Z - 170030Z ALTHOUGH MCS INTENSITY APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY WANED...REDEVELOPMENT ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS IN RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF 90-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET...MAY STILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS/PULSE SEVERE HAIL. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF CURRENT WW INTO NERN KS/SERN NEB. IN ADDITION...CELLS TRACKING NNE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN WIND VECTOR WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. SUBTLE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR AN MCS WITH A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON HAS TRACKED FROM THE SAND HILLS OF NEB INTO SWRN MN THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO WW 493 WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. REDEVELOPMENT HAS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS ERN NEB INTO NWRN IA WITH 20-30 KTS OF 0-1 KM SOUTHERLY INFLOW. THIS WILL BE STRENGTHENED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES. CELL MERGERS AND DEVELOPMENT ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MAY SUSTAIN A DAMAGING WIND/PULSE LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH AROUND 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. FLASH FLOODING/HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE OF GREATER CONCERN ACROSS NERN NEB/NWRN IA WITH TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE ECHOES LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..GRAMS.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40849910 41719914 42079792 42939672 44299602 44689489 42079496 41169754 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 00:28:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 20:28:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170026 KSZ000-170130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1208 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170026Z - 170130Z THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 491 BY 02Z AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NECESSARY. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A NEARLY SOLID CONVECTIVE LINE HAS DEVELOPED FROM PHILLIPS AND SMITH COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL KS TO CLARK COUNTY IN SWRN KS TO ROGER MILLS AND BECKHAM COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL OK. SMALLER-SCALE SURGES IN THIS LINE HAVE BEEN NOTED FROM PHILLIPS AND SMITH COUNTIES SWD TO ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTIES IN KS...AS WELL AS OVER NWRN OK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MORE ORGANIZED COLD POOLS. WITH TIME...EXPECT FURTHER COLD POOL EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...WITH EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY INTO S-CNTRL KS. RELATIVELY STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WITHIN BOUNDARY LAYER /WHICH SHOULD BE AIDED BY INTENSIFYING SLY LLJ/ WILL MAINTAIN STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL...SUPPORTING CONTINUED SYSTEM PROPAGATION. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC... 37119833 38089841 38469823 38849775 39069716 38809666 37889665 37119710 37019754 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 00:44:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 20:44:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170041 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-170215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1209 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN MN...N-CNTRL IA AND NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493... VALID 170041Z - 170215Z DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT CONTINUES MAINLY TO THE E OF A MESOLOW JUST N OF MKT...WITH THREAT DIMINISHING IN MCS COLD POOL REGION ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL MN. CONTINUE WW. LONG-LIVED MESOLOW ASSOCIATED WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WAS LOCATED NORTH OF MANKATO AS OF 0035Z. EMERGING LEWP STRUCTURE IN VICINITY OF LOW MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS FEATURE LIKELY TRACKS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. CONTINUED LIFT NE OF MCS COLD POOL...HAS HELPED INDUCE SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR LAKE MILLE LACS AND INTO THE ST CROIX RIVER VALLEY. ANY OF THESE CELLS...AS WELL AS THOSE WHICH ADDITIONALLY DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM...WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS PER MODIFIED INL/GRB AND RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER DARK AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE LLJ FOCUSES FURTHER W. ..GRAMS.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 44309485 45029410 46589335 47069199 46258994 44319038 43519295 42769483 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 01:03:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 21:03:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170101 OKZ000-TXZ000-170200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1210 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX PNHDL INTO NWRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 492... VALID 170101Z - 170200Z THROUGH 02Z...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST OVER SERN PORTION OF WW AREA. QUASI-LINEAR MCS HAS EVOLVED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER ERN PORTION OF WW 492 FROM E OF DDC SWD INTO NWRN OK...WITH TRAILING PORTION COMPRISED OF MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER WHEELER COUNTY TX. ANOTHER STORM CLUSTER WAS OBSERVED OVER CHILDRESS AND COTTLE COUNTIES IN THE SERN TX PNHDL/NRN TX. DESPITE MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...00Z AMA SOUNDING INDICATED THAT CONSIDERABLE COOLING HAD OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS BETWEEN 800 AND 350 MB WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WAS CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SERN TX PNHDL INTO NWRN TX AND SWRN OK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...EVEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH WITH TIME...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 35080088 35360077 35510021 34969978 34519969 34130017 34210089 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 02:35:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 22:35:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170232 OKZ000-170330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1211 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0932 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170232Z - 170330Z THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MCS AS IT MOVES E OF WW 495...MAINLY AFTER 03Z. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS OF 0225Z...VANCE AFB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED LEADING EDGE OF QUASI-LINEAR MCS FROM RENO...KINGMAN AND HARPER COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL KS SSWWD INTO ALFALFA...MAJOR...DEWEY AND BLAINE COUNTIES IN NWRN OK. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT REMAINS QUITE CLOSE TO PARENT CONVECTION OVER S-CNTRL KS WHERE RECENT SEVERE WIND GUSTS/WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED. FARTHER S...GUST FRONT HAS STARTED TO OUT RUN CONVECTIVE TOWERS BY ROUGHLY 10 MILES... SUGGESTING THAT SYSTEM COLD POOL IS BEGINNING TO OVERWHELM AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. RECENT MESONET OBSERVATION FROM ALFALFA COUNTY INDICATES THAT WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES E OF WW 495 INTO N-CNTRL OK. ..MEAD.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 36629743 36899738 36959674 36879623 35969635 35749698 35979756 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 03:09:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 23:09:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170307 TXZ000-170400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1212 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS...BIG COUNTRY INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494... VALID 170307Z - 170400Z THROUGH 05Z...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS E-CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW 494. SHOULD CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WW MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. AS OF 0250Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A NE-SW ORIENTED LINE OF TSTMS FROM JONES INTO NOLAN COUNTIES OF W-CNTRL TX WITH A GENERAL EWD MOVEMENT OF 30-35 KTS. ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED STORMS WERE BEING OBSERVED OVER KNOX AND TERRELL AND PECOS COUNTIES IN TX. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NEAR ABI IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL TX /DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F/ WHERE RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CAP. ADDITIONALLY...JAYTON TX PROFILER HAS BECOME MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OWING TO AN INCREASE AND VEERING OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL TO CONTINUE E OF ABI...PERHAPS TOWARD BWD WITH TIME. ELSEWHERE...SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM RE-DEVELOPMENT EXISTS OVER THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AS COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS RETREATING DRY LINE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...JAYTON PROFILER HAS BECOME MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS...SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION INDEED FORM. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND CAP STRENGTH WITH GRADUAL COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER. ..MEAD.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31200143 32090102 33170015 33259926 32799859 31859873 30989930 30569985 30560094 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 03:17:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 23:17:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170315 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-170415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1213 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL MN/WCNTRL WI/NE IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493... VALID 170315Z - 170415Z ...SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE BEYOND 04Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL WI/SE MN AND NCNTRL INTO NERN IA. ANOTHER WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED... LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BUBBLE HIGH ACROSS SW MN...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE TWIN CITIES AND DES MOINES RADARS INDICATE NEW STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NCNTRL IA INTO SCNTRL MN. SEVERE WINDS WERE REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS HANCOCK CO IA WITH THESE STORMS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS ERN MN/WI OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 45 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE CERTAINLY STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST ONE WAVE ACROSS NRN MN...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA...REDUCING MASS FLUX THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OVER THE REGION. BUT...PORTIONS OF SE MN/WRN WI ARE NOW IN A LOCAL CONFLUENCE ZONE WHICH MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS. ..TAYLOR.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 42689225 42899398 43969427 44689326 45959220 46269131 46129077 44379058 43559083 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 03:51:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 23:51:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170349 KSZ000-OKZ000-170445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1214 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL INTO SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 497... VALID 170349Z - 170445Z THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE E OF WW 497 BY 0430Z AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 0330Z...ICT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE LINE FROM CNTRL MARION COUNTY SSWWD INTO CNTRL SUMNER COUNTY WITH A SYSTEM MOTION OF ROUGHLY 265/35 KTS. STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LINE HAS RECENTLY MOVED THROUGH THE ICT AREA WHERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. ICT/VNX VWP DATA SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A 40-45 KT REAR INFLOW JET BELOW 2 KM AGL WHICH IS LIKELY ENHANCING DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM GUST FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS GUST FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE PARENT CONVECTION...SUGGESTING THE A GRADUAL UPSHEAR TILT TO THE LEADING UPDRAFT TOWERS. THUS...THERE MAY BE SOME TENDENCY FOR A DECREASE IN PEAK WIND GUSTS AS MCS SHIFTS E OF WW 497...THOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 37809726 38549710 38739637 38809570 37829534 37079571 36969655 37039721 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 04:21:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 00:21:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170419 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170419 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-170515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1215 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/NE KS/SW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496... VALID 170419Z - 170515Z ...SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED OVER THE REMAINDER OF WW 496...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY... STRONGEST PART OF SQUALL LINE AT 04Z EXTENDS FROM CNTRL KS SWD INTO OK. BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE IN ECNTRL NEB HAS STABILIZED WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S. SFC WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS EAST OF CNK/HJH. ..TAYLOR.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...GID... 40109692 40999755 41499703 41519589 40479560 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 04:25:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 00:25:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170424 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170423 OKZ000-TXZ000-170600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1216 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495... VALID 170423Z - 170600Z THROUGH 06Z...THE GREATEST THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST FROM GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I-40 AND W OF I-44. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITH TIME E OF WW 495. SRN PORTION OF QUASI-LINEAR MCS IN PROGRESS OVER CNTRL KS INTO N-CNTRL OK REMAINS MORE CELLULAR ACROSS W-CNTRL INTO SWRN OK AS OF 04Z. VWP FROM FREDRICK AFB INDICATES THAT KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AS BOTH LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY /I.E. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2/. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY OWING TO COOLING BOUNDARY-LAYER. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP IS STRENGTHENING IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER...THOUGH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. THUS...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. AS MORE INTENSE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SWRN OK APPROACHES THE CNTRL PART OF THE STATE ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN... 34639989 35389960 35679840 35829789 35709728 35039722 34089909 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 07:36:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 03:36:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170735 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170734 TXZ000-170930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1217 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498... VALID 170734Z - 170930Z SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 498. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX/IN AND TO THE SW OF WW 498. SELY LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITHIN MOIST /LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/ AND MODERATELY-UNSTABLE /AROUND 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ AIRMASS. THOUGH VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS NWD INTO NW TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...RESULTING IN AN EVEN LESS FAVORABLE WIND FIELD WITH TIME. THEREFORE...EXPECT A LOCAL THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...BEFORE DECREASING THROUGH SUNRISE. ..GOSS.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31829958 32149839 32069745 30279808 29710031 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 09:05:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 05:05:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170902 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170902 MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-171100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500... VALID 170902Z - 171100Z LIMITED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SWRN OK. MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO ERN OK ATTM. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE A SLOW WEAKENING...AS STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER ERN OK. MEANWHILE...A LIMITED THREAT FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE SWRN QUARTER OF OK -- WITHIN WW 500. THIS REGION REMAINS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER NOW CROSSING THE TX PNHDL...AND MODELS FORECAST AN INCREASE IN A WRN BRANCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THOUGH ANY STORM REDEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE...A LOCAL THREAT FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY A FEW STRONGER STORMS. ..GOSS.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN... 35129928 36979623 36959445 34309710 34299998 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 15:14:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 11:14:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 171512 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171512 LAZ000-TXZ000-171715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1219 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171512Z - 171715Z THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX GULF COAST THIS MORNING...AND PERHAPS INTO SWRN/SRN LA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS REGION WILL BE INCLUDED IN A SLGT RISK IN THE NEXT DAY ONE OUTLOOK AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. MATURE MCS WITH LARGE COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED UPSCALE AND ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW/CIRCULATION ACROSS SERN TX THIS MORNING. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE ADVANCING EAST AT ABOUT 30KT WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY MCV MOVING EAST INTO VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE TX GULF COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDING DATA REVEALS ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN STEEP THETA-E LAPSE RATES. GIVEN RELATIVELY MARGINAL DEEP SHEAR... GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS AS MCV AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL ACTIVITY DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX GULF COAST AND THE SABINE RIVER AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE THAN ISOLATED...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED. ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP... 28269613 28099691 28429710 29249621 30279554 31069537 31259511 31229460 31039389 30689335 30399299 29989253 29639254 29329331 29189373 28989450 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 16:56:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 12:56:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 171654 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171654 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-171830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1220 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...NRN WI...MI U.P. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171654Z - 171830Z THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WAS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN MN...NRN WI...AND PARTS OF THE U.P. OF MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PARTS OF THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE COVERED BY A WATCH SHORTLY. WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING INHIBITION WAS PROMPTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM EAST-CNTRL MN ACROSS NRN WI AT NOON. CONTINUED STRONG SURFACE HEATING ON THE SRN/SERN EDGE OF DEEP-LAYERED CLOUD BAND ACROSS MN...AND PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ON LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS WI...SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGION LIES BENEATH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE BETWEEN CNTRL PLAINS UPPER LOW AND LESS AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS ND. APPROACH OF THESE DISTURBANCE WILL AID LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. PRESENCE OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY COULD ALSO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IF CELLS CAN TRACK PREFERENTIALLY NEAR/ALONG THESE FEATURES. ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 47099060 47428812 47388770 46608618 45668774 45168886 44769030 44529110 44329222 44449310 44779370 45339361 46699258 46859180 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 17:59:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 13:59:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 171755 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171755 OKZ000-TXZ000-171900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1221 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX AND SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171755Z - 171900Z SEVERE TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN TX AND SWRN OK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF THESE AREAS. RAPID AIR MASS RECOVERY WAS UNDERWAY IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT OK/TX MCS ACTIVITY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MID LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WERE CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION OVER THE REGION WITH LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. CU FIELD HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND WAS DEEPENING NEAR WEAK FRONT AND OK MCS OUTFLOW INTERSECTION NEAR LTS. FARTHER SOUTH...CU FIELD WAS INCREASING NEAR THE WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM NE OF MAF TO NW OF SPS. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK INHIBITION ACROSS THE AREA...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION AND ALONG THE WEAK FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 20-30KT ATOP GENERALLY WEAK SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. MAGNITUDE OF CAPE/LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE OUTFLOW AND FRONT COULD SUSTAIN A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SUPERCELLS TRACKING ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS OK WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS RESULTING IN STRONGER SRH. IF HIGHER CAPE ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES ACROSS NWRN TX THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL UPDRAFT STRETCHING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34539751 32220007 32090099 32560167 33940085 35569957 35399834 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 18:36:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 14:36:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 171834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171834 LAZ000-TXZ000-171930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1222 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501... VALID 171834Z - 171930Z ARC OF VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION ON LEADING EDGE OF MATURE MCS COLD POOL CONTINUES DEVELOPING EAST INTO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE UPPER TX GULF COAST TO THE WRN LA BORDER. VIL AND LIGHTNING TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY BE STARTING TO WEAKEN AS ACTIVITY OUTRUNS STRONGER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. LIMITED SHEAR AND GENERALLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LINE SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL. WHILE ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER AND NEAR THE GULF COAST...ADDITIONAL WATCHES IN THIS REGION DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 29479379 29149570 30179430 31229403 32249419 32349290 30959268 29179219 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 19:13:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 15:13:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 171911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171911 OKZ000-172015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171911Z - 172015Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FROM SWRN OK NWD/EWD ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN OK. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. STORMS WERE INCREASING NEAR FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION IN SWRN OK. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM THIS AREA NEWD ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS/WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...FROM SWRN OK NEWD TO THE KS BORDER. POST MCS AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL SECTIONS OF OK WAS VERY MOIST AND SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES TO OVERCOME INHIBITION. WHILE MID LEVEL WLY FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS WAS CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST TO LOCALLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL SUPPORTED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...LOWER LFC/HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE UPDRAFT INFLOW LAYER WOULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34289750 35399958 36969838 36949587 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 20:29:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 16:29:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172027 MOZ000-KSZ000-172200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1224 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NERN KS AND NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172027Z - 172200Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/NERN KS AND NWRN MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM CNTRL KS/NEB BORDER TO SCNTRL KS. MEANWHILE LARGER SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD SUPPORT PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE LIFT. AIR MASS ACROSS ERN KS/NWRN MO HAS HEATED THROUGH THE LOWER 80S F. INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY WEAK/LIMITED...FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE LOW MAY INDUCE MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUGGESTED BY LATEST 18Z GUIDANCE FROM NAM-ETA AND NAM-WRF. BAND OF DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW OF 30-40KT ON THE SERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLY EVOLVING FROM INITIAL ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IF STORMS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS DEPICTED IN LATEST GUIDANCE. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 38429813 39469821 39859721 39879509 39339445 38349523 37629628 37319687 37289741 37309825 37569852 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 21:07:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 17:07:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172105 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172104 OKZ000-TXZ000-172230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503...504... VALID 172104Z - 172230Z INTENSE CONVECTION NEAR OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION AND WEAK LOW ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL OK WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WAS FLOWING NWD INTO THIS AREA WHERE BOUNDARY/CELL INTERACTIONS WERE OCCASIONALLY SUPPORTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IN GENERALLY WEAK DEEP SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR IN STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NWRN TX THROUGH THE EVENING. GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY MODEST 30-40KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A SEVERE MCS POSSIBLE PROPAGATING SWD/SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CNTRL/WRN TX DURING TH NIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32220237 36949860 36969590 35849588 35619536 34409561 33849645 31859803 30399939 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 21:20:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 17:20:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172117 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-172245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1226 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0417 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502... VALID 172117Z - 172245Z GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OVER FAR NWRN WI/WRN U.P. OF MI...POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO E-CNTRL MN. A MORE ISOLATED/LIMITED THREAT EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL WI...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE ERN U.P. OF MI. TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MOST VIGOROUS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE WW. ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE BEEN FIRING ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF A MESOLOW AROUND 40 E OF STC. MLCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SMALL SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES...WITH WET MICROBURST AND PULSE SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER E...TSTMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW ACROSS CNTRL WI SHORTLY IN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED IN THIS REGION BY MODEST WIND SHEAR /AROUND 20 KTS PER BLR PROFILER/ AND INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPES/...AS WELL AS OVERALL LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS. TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NON-EXISTENT ACROSS THE ERN U.P. OF MI E OF A MQT TO MNM LINE. RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FINE-LINE WHICH IS LIKELY SEPARATING A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE E...AND IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RUC/ACARS SOUNDINGS. THE WW MAY BE CLEARED EARLY IN THIS REGION. ..GRAMS.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44489162 44979261 46009271 46579218 46789076 47328786 46368424 45918435 45188671 44678857 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 23:38:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 19:38:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172336 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172336 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-180000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1227 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI/WRN U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502... VALID 172336Z - 180000Z SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN REGION OF BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED AND PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING FURTHER AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE LACK OF ORGANIZED FOCUS...ALONG WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GRAMS.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44539206 45889263 46889130 47388796 47138674 44978800 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 18 00:40:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 20:40:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180038 TXZ000-180245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503... VALID 180038Z - 180245Z THUNDERSTORMS OVER NWRN TX ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND SPREAD SEWD THROUGH CNTRL TX...REACHING PARTS OF S CNTRL AND SERN TX LATER THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WW 503 WILL BE REPLACED BY A NEW WW THAT WILL EXTEND FARTHER SE INTO CNTRL AND SERN TX BEFORE 02Z. EARLY THIS EVENING A CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS INCREASING IN VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN TX. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING SEWD THROUGH NWRN TX SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE NUMBER OF STORMS DEVELOPING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS CLUSTER TO EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. ONCE THIS OCCURS...SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KT VEERING TO WNWLY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE LEADING GUST FRONT AND SUPPORT A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO SUPPORT THE MCS CONTINUING SEWD OVERNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL TX IS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WNWLY OF 20 TO 30 KT AT 500 MB WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITHIN THE EVOLVING MCS. ..DIAL.. 06/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29639706 30249940 32240132 32689885 33469714 31999595 30759518 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 18 02:02:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 22:02:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180200 KSZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-180330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1229 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0900 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO THROUGH SWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505... VALID 180200Z - 180330Z LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH ERN KS...SWRN IA AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN MO. STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING E OF WW 505 BY 03Z AND THIS WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME OF 05Z. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW EAST OF WW 505. LINE OF STORMS FROM SWRN IA THROUGH ERN KS IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 25 KT. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE E OF WW 505 AFTER 03Z. THE 00Z RAOB DATA FROM TOPEKA INDICATES ONLY MARGINAL MLCAPE WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THIS HAS SERVED AS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT ENHANCED BY EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS INTO WRN MO WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST E OF WW 505. GIVEN THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...ANOTHER WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY. ..DIAL.. 06/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 37669630 39429599 41069577 40889497 39679480 37759531 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 18 04:27:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2006 00:27:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180425 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180425 TXZ000-180600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1230 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL AND S CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506... VALID 180425Z - 180600Z THREAT FOR PRIMARILY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW 506 AS MCS CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH CNTRL TX. LINEAR MCS WITH TRAILING COLD POOL EXTENDS FROM THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA SWWD TO NEAR BALLINGER IN CNTRL TX. THE LINE IS MOVING SEWD AT 25 TO 30 KT. SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THE LINE...AND THE STRONGER STORMS REMAIN CAPABLE OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. A BROAD AREA OF SELY 25 TO 30 KT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IMPINGING ON THE GUST FRONT/COLD POOL WILL MAINTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATION WITHIN THE MCS THROUGH CNTRL TX NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..DIAL.. 06/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31220072 31349893 31959748 32569632 32229563 31339576 30119802 30300057 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 18 07:12:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2006 03:12:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180710 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180710 TXZ000-180845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1231 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506... VALID 180710Z - 180845Z THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT HAS DECREASED IN AND NEAR WW 506...A THREAT FOR HAIL PERSISTS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BOWING LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING SEWD/SWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- MOVING S AND E ACROSS/OUT OF WW. THOUGH THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS LINEAR CONFIGURATION...RADAR INDICATES CONTINUED WEAKENING IN REFLECTIVITY. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECREASING. GREATEST THREAT REMAINS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW WITH MORE DISCRETE STORMS ON WRN FRINGE OF MCS...WHERE MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND STRONGER SHEAR ARE INDICATED. THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION -- POSSIBLY SPREADING S OF WW WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 06/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 32230074 32260036 31909926 30999884 30299907 29829970 30060071 31160105 31840106 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 01:45:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2006 21:45:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 190146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190145 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-190345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1235 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0845 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SRN IA AND EXTREME NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 190145Z - 190345Z SERN NEB THROUGH SRN IA AND NRN MO ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF STORMS MATERIALIZE...THEY MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. OVERALL THREAT IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INITIATION. ONE INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT...A WW MAY BE NEEDED. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WI SWWD THROUGH SRN IA INTO SRN NEB WHERE IT BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORM THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER SERN NEB S OF HASTINGS HAS DISSIPATED...BUT LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A LINE OF CUMULUS ALONG THE IA PORTION OF THE FRONT. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK FROM NERN NEB THROUGH MUCH OF IA APPEARS TO BE INDICATIVE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A SEWD MOVING UPPER JET. THIS ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD AND MAY BEGIN TO OVERTAKE THE PORTION OF THE FRONT IN SRN IA. DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DUE TO THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP FARTHER W ACROSS SERN NEB AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND WHERE DEVELOPING CLOUDS SUGGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY ALREADY BE INCREASING ALONG THAT PORTION OF THE FRONT. ..DIAL.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID... 40949910 40819612 41059357 41239209 40649242 39979919 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 02:20:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2006 22:20:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 190221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190221 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-190415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1236 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0921 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN IND...WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508... VALID 190221Z - 190415Z THREAT FOR SVR APPEARS TO BE WANING AND WW 508 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z WITH NO OTHER ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCES ANTICIPATED. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EARLIER SFC WAVE NEAR HUF HAS WASHED OUT AND ONLY WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE REMAINS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER CENTRAL/ECENTRAL IND FROM EARLIER LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN/ECENTRAL IND INTO SWRN OH REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCAPPED...PER 00Z ILN SOUNDING...DECREASING INSTABILITY AND LACK OF PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SUGGESTS THAT THE SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 508 VALID TIME /04Z/. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST /100 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH PER RECENT ILN VWP DATA/ AND THERE WILL REMAIN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WITH ANY STRONG/SHORT LIVED UPDRAFT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... 40828469 40278566 39438687 38828728 38648702 38658615 38788500 39578378 40758375 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 06:51:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 02:51:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 190652 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190651 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA/S CENTRAL AND SERN NEB/NRN KS/NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 190651Z - 190845Z EXPECT STORMS TO PERSIST -- ROUGHLY CENTERED ON THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY -- OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH LOCAL THREAT FOR HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONGER CELLS...WW NOT ANTICIPATED. ELONGATED CLUSTER OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SRN IA ATTM...WITHIN REGION OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. STORMS ARE ALSO INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS S CENTRAL NEB...WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF SURFACE FRONT. MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL JET AND UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH MODERATELY-STRONG MID-LEVEL WNWLY FLOW REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...ELEVATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ONLY A LIMITED HAIL THREAT. ..GOSS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD... 41629328 41079155 39759123 38699604 39300026 40030073 41089904 41999691 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 13:39:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 09:39:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191340 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191340 VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-191545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1238 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0840 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NY INTO PORTIONS OF VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191340Z - 191545Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. LATEST ANALYSES INDICATE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF MOIST CONVECTION NOW INCREASING OVER WRN NY AND NWRN PA THIS MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 80F NEAR SYR/UCA AND INTO THE NRN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE MODIFIED OBSERVED/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW TO MID 80F TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORMS. SBCAPE / NOW AROUND 1000 J/KG / SHOULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG IN ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. VWP/S FROM BGM AND BUF INDICATE SFC-6 KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT...WITH DEEP CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SITES GIVEN MORE WLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT AT BUF. NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE SHOULD SUPPORT LINEAR ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND SPREADS INTO ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 41977547 42157712 43357673 44897433 44837230 42797318 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 15:05:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 11:05:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191506 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191506 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-191630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IL ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN IND INTO SERN MI/NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191506Z - 191630Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING OVER FAR W-CENTRAL IL AND INTO SWRN MI THIS MORNING AHEAD OF STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GIVEN CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG SHEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS IND...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AIR MASS HAS YET TO SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS IND AND SRN LOWER MI THIS MORNING...YET DEEP ASCENT IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AXIS OF STRONGER HEATING FROM ERN IL INTO SWRN MI. SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES...WHERE RUC FORECAST AND MODIFIED-OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WILL OVERCOME MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER CAP. APPEARS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE INCREASING UNDER 40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS... THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 39468591 39318775 40118820 42948491 43468315 42448266 40208462 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 15:07:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 11:07:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191508 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191508 COR MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-191630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IL ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN IND INTO SERN MI/NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191508Z - 191630Z CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN FIRST PARAGRAPH THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING OVER FAR E-CENTRAL IL AND INTO SWRN MI THIS MORNING AHEAD OF STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GIVEN CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG SHEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS IND...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AIR MASS HAS YET TO SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS IND AND SRN LOWER MI THIS MORNING...YET DEEP ASCENT IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AXIS OF STRONGER HEATING FROM ERN IL INTO SWRN MI. SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES...WHERE RUC FORECAST AND MODIFIED-OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WILL OVERCOME MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER CAP. APPEARS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE INCREASING UNDER 40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS... THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 39468591 39318775 40118820 42948491 43468315 42448266 40208462 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 15:08:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 11:08:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191506 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191506 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-191630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IL ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN IND INTO SERN MI/NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191506Z - 191630Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING OVER FAR W-CENTRAL IL AND INTO SWRN MI THIS MORNING AHEAD OF STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GIVEN CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG SHEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS IND...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AIR MASS HAS YET TO SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS IND AND SRN LOWER MI THIS MORNING...YET DEEP ASCENT IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AXIS OF STRONGER HEATING FROM ERN IL INTO SWRN MI. SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES...WHERE RUC FORECAST AND MODIFIED-OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WILL OVERCOME MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER CAP. APPEARS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE INCREASING UNDER 40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS... THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 39468591 39318775 40118820 42948491 43468315 42448266 40208462  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 15:10:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 11:10:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191508 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191508 COR MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-191630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IL ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN IND INTO SERN MI/NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191508Z - 191630Z CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN FIRST PARAGRAPH THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING OVER FAR E-CENTRAL IL AND INTO SWRN MI THIS MORNING AHEAD OF STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GIVEN CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG SHEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS IND...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AIR MASS HAS YET TO SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS IND AND SRN LOWER MI THIS MORNING...YET DEEP ASCENT IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AXIS OF STRONGER HEATING FROM ERN IL INTO SWRN MI. SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES...WHERE RUC FORECAST AND MODIFIED-OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WILL OVERCOME MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER CAP. APPEARS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE INCREASING UNDER 40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS... THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 39468591 39318775 40118820 42948491 43468315 42448266 40208462  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 17:29:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 13:29:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191730 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191730 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-191930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1240 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NH..WRN ME..MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191730Z - 191930Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NRN MA NNEWD ACROSS WRN ME. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF MA/NH WITH STRONG HEATING ALSO ACROSS ME. MLCAPE AXIS IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG HAS ALREADY BECOME ESTABLISHED AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT SHEAR IS IN PLACE FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS ACCORDING TO REGIONAL VWPS. SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE IN TWO MODES...ONE WILL BE AS ONGOING STORMS SPREAD EWD OUT OF NY WITH ANOTHER ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS NOW INCREASING NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NH/WRN ME AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 42257135 42497262 45217118 47386918 47136790 45056911 43377041 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 18:14:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 14:14:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191814 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-192015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1241 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO ACROSS CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191814Z - 192015Z AREA OF MAXIMUM SURFACE CONVERGENCE BEING MONITORED FROM NERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF ACTIVITY INCREASES OVER THIS AREA. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SMALL CB FORMING ALONG E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS FAR NRN MO INTO SERN NEB. STORM IS INITIATING INVOF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX NOW SHIFTING ACROSS SERN IA. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE ONCE TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER CENTRAL/SRN IL. INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN A NW-SE ORIENTATION ACROSS CENTRAL IL AS AREAS TO THE NORTH UNDERGO STRONGER DRYING DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH ANY PERSISTENT STORM. THOUGH WIND PROFILE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT. THUS...IF A STORM CAN TAKE ROOT INTO DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH RIGHT MOVERS DEVELOPING INTO GREATER INSTABILITY OVER SRN HALF OF IL. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40349313 40599261 40319000 40188758 39088750 38658878 39389146 39949297 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 18:42:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 14:42:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191842 NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-192045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1242 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NY...NERN PA...VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509... VALID 191842Z - 192045Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS INCREASED OVER UPSTATE NY INTO MUCH OF VT AHEAD OF EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NY. CONTINUE WW 509 AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THOUGH COUNTIES WEST OF THE FRONT CAN LIKELY BE DROPPED FROM THE WATCH. AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND INTO ERN NY/CENTRAL PA WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90F AHEAD OF BROKEN LINE OF STORMS PRODUCING EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING FROM NW OF BTV TO 25 W GFL TO JUST E OF IPT. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO WHERE SSELY SURFACE WINDS ARE INCREASING LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. VWP FROM ALB INDICATES 40 KT SFC-6 KM SHEAR AND 0-3 KM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITHIN THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT WHERE STORMS ARE MAINTAINING MORE DISCRETE CHARACTER AS OPPOSED TO PERSISTENT LINEAR SEGMENT NOW MOVING TOWARDS NWRN VT. WIND DAMAGE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 41397414 41187627 41477656 42977517 44957343 44867123 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 19:04:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 15:04:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191905 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191904 NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-192000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1243 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...CENTRAL/NRN OH...NWRN PA...FAR WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191904Z - 192000Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF WW 510 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN OH TOWARDS NWRN PA/FAR WRN NY. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED IN TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON...ONE OVER SERN LOW MI INTO WRN LAKE ERIE WITH ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL IND. EACH OF THESE CLUSTERS IS PERSISTING AND MOVING ESEWD WITHIN WW 510...WHERE AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. MLCAPE MAX AROUND 2000 J/KG IS PREVALENT OVER LAKE ERIE ATTM...WHERE STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS IS SHIFTING ACROSS WRN LAKE ERIE IN THE SHAPE OF A SMALL BOW ECHO. OTHER MORE DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SWRN ONTARIO. SEVERE THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR WW IS THEREFORE GREATEST ACROSS NRN OH INTO FAR WRN NY/NWRN PA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. SEVERE THREAT IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SOUTHEAST OF WW 510 INTO SERN IND/SWRN OH...THOUGH CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW MAY PUSH SEVERE THREAT INTO MORE OF SRN IND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND... 38808715 39928438 42368165 42977811 38428508 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 20 17:21:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 13:21:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201721 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201721 WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-201845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1258 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE IL..SRN IND...KY...SWRN VA...WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201721Z - 201845Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE ACROSS KY AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND WWD THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL IL INTO NRN KY AND NEWD INTO WRN PA. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. STORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NRN IL. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE MOSTLY UNDIRECTIONAL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR ABOVE 700 MB WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG MULTICELL STORMS. THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 06/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 36748197 36718636 37678863 38848812 38238619 38238383 38128194 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 20 18:53:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 14:53:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201854 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-202030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1259 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY...WRN NEB...NE CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201854Z - 202030Z THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 20Z TO 21Z ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SCNTRL NEB EXTENDING SWWD INTO SRN CO WITH A DUAL-CENTERED SFC LOW OVER NW KS AND SE CO. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT PRESENT FROM FAR SE WY EXTENDING SSEWD TO NEAR GOODLAND KS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE MEDICINE BOWS AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN...MOVING INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SE WY...NE CO AND WRN NEB SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-45 KT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 06/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... 40630227 40260375 40750509 41390540 42340523 42910412 42720243 41580173 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 20 19:56:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 15:56:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201956 KSZ000-COZ000-202200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1260 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN CO INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201956Z - 202200Z ISOLATED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT HAS BECOME VERY HOT WITHIN SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH FROM NRN KS SWWD INTO SERN CO AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WHERE STRONG MIXING WITH LOW LEVEL JET HAS CAUSED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO ERODE. THIS EROSION WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY NEWD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN KS AS HEATING CONTINUES. VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40-55 F RANGE TO PRODUCE SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. STRONG WARM ADVECTION PROFILES IN THE LOW LEVELS AND MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST MULTICELLULAR STORMS ARE LIKELY. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND MIXING DOWN OF LOW LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES MAY CONTAIN HAIL ..JEWELL.. 06/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38969783 37570128 37070273 37510321 37960321 38760344 39260126 39909985 39929914 39949765 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 20 20:02:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 16:02:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202003 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-202200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1261 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MO...SE IA...WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202003Z - 202200Z SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS SE IA...NE MO AND WRN IL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 21Z ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE FROM CNTRL IL INTO SRN IA AND ERN NEB. A MOIST AXIS WITH LOW 70 F DEWPOINTS EXIST FROM ST LOUIS EXTENDING NWWD INTO FAR NW MO WHERE STRONG UNSTABLE AIR IS PRESENT. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS NCNTRL MO JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE CAP AND INTO THE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR...SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. IF THIS OCCURS...MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. ..BROYLES.. 06/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 38689132 39009235 39889294 40729297 41409219 41309070 40348990 39129007 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 20 22:19:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 18:19:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202219 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-210015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1262 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0519 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NERN IA...SERN MN...SWRN WI AND NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202219Z - 210015Z POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY FROM CNTRL AND NERN IA INTO SERN MN...SWRN WI AND NWRN IL. A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW WILL BE NEEDED IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR INITIATION IS IMMINENT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN IA SEWD THROUGH CNTRL IL. THIS BOUNDARY IS LIFTING SLOWLY NWD THIS EVENING ALONG A 40+ KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET. PARTIAL CLEARING IN WAKE OF MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. STEEP LAPSE RATES...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S HAVE RESULTED IN AN AXIS OF 2500 MLCAPE FROM WRN AND S CNTRL IA SEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN IL. PLUME OF WARM AIR IN THE 850 MB TO 700 MB LAYER HAS ADVECTED NEWD CONTRIBUTING TO A CAP. THIS LENDS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN AND IF STORMS WILL INITIATE. MCV THAT ACCOMPANIED THE MORNING CONVECTION HAS MOVED EWD INTO IL AND WI WITH TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE NRN IA...SRN MN INTO SWRN WI ON NRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CONTAINING LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR AND N OF THE WARM FRONT. ..DIAL.. 06/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 40559021 41699280 42979626 44659285 42538929 40778898 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 20 22:49:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 18:49:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202249 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202249 VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-210045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1263 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0549 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN IL...WRN IN...CENTRAL AND WRN KY...MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202249Z - 210045Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVER MUCH OF KY INTO MIDDLE TN...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. FARTHER W...NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER SERN IL AND WRN INDIANA LATE EVENING WITH HAIL AND WIND POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS KY/TN ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH TIME AS LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE AND WITH LACK OF FORCING MECHANISM. FARTHER NW...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROFILES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS IL AND UPSTREAM OVER MO...THUS SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION. ..JEWELL.. 06/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 39908907 40978814 41058702 39328594 37028343 35888365 35068456 35138624 37218768 38218954 39258975 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 20 23:16:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 19:16:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202316 SDZ000-NEZ000-210045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1264 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202316Z - 210045Z SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO SRN SD. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...A FEW MORE STORMS MAY FORM OVER SWRN SD. THUS A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LEFT MOVING SUPERCELL OVER NW NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO SD. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS SRN SD WITH A BROAD ZONE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR DUE TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN SEVERE CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY LEFT MOVING STORMS.IN ADDITION...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS WRN SD BENEATH STRONG COOLING ALOFT. ..JEWELL.. 06/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 43000276 42990404 43830400 44560065 44459976 43809885 42979969 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 00:22:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 20:22:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210022 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1265 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND WRN KS / FAR ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210022Z - 210115Z A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AND PROPAGATE EWD OUT OF CO AND INTO SWRN NEBRASKA/NWRN KS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR LONG LIVED CONVECTION. LIFT WILL PERSIST ON NOSE OF SLY LOW LEVEL JET FURTHER AIDING STORMS AS THEY TREK EWD ACROSS KS AND NEBRASKA. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROFILES BENEATH MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR MOSTLY MULTICELLS...BUT A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW. ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38510332 39900189 40650057 41030010 40889817 39989802 39149792 38639940 38590103 38620207 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 02:12:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 22:12:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210212 KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-210415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1266 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0912 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...WRN...CENTRAL AND SRN NEB...SRN SD AND NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 522...523...524... VALID 210212Z - 210415Z CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER NERN CO /WW 522/ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD INTO SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS...EVENTUALLY MOVING ITO WW 524 BETWEEN 03-05Z. THE MAIN SVR THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS. THE SVR THREAT OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW 522 /WRN NEB/ APPEARS TO BE WANING AND THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED FROM WATCH IN THE NEXT HR OR SO. FURTHER NORTH OVER WW 523 /SRN SD/ ADDITIONAL SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SWRN SD AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF NRN ROCKIES. ACTIVITY ONGOING OVER SCENTRAL SD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF WW 523. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW OVER SERN CO NEWD INTO SCENTRAL/SERN NEB. LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SUPPORT ONGOING SVR STORM CLUSTER AS IT MOVES OUT OF NERN CO...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS. CLUSTER/S OF SVR STORMS SHOULD THEN PROPAGATE EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SCENTRAL/SERN NEB...NCENTRAL/NERN KS LATER THIS EVENING GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 524 BEFORE 05Z. FURTHER NORTH...LARGE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER NWRN NEB. DESPITE INFLUX OF STEEP LAPSE RATE AIR INTO THE REGION AND WEAK LIFT ON SRN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...THE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE NERN QUARTER OF WW 522 WILL LIKELY REMAIN STABLE ENOUGH THAT NEW SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REMNANT LEFT SPLITTING SUPERCELL OVER WW 523 SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS OVER SERN SD...SO A NEW WW EAST OF  000 ACUS11 KWNS 210212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210212 KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-210415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1266 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0912 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...WRN...CENTRAL AND SRN NEB...SRN SD AND NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 522...523...524... VALID 210212Z - 210415Z CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER NERN CO /WW 522/ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD INTO SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS...EVENTUALLY MOVING ITO WW 524 BETWEEN 03-05Z. THE MAIN SVR THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS. THE SVR THREAT OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW 522 /WRN NEB/ APPEARS TO BE WANING AND THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED FROM WATCH IN THE NEXT HR OR SO. FURTHER NORTH OVER WW 523 /SRN SD/ ADDITIONAL SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SWRN SD AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF NRN ROCKIES. ACTIVITY ONGOING OVER SCENTRAL SD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF WW 523. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW OVER SERN CO NEWD INTO SCENTRAL/SERN NEB. LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SUPPORT ONGOING SVR STORM CLUSTER AS IT MOVES OUT OF NERN CO...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS. CLUSTER/S OF SVR STORMS SHOULD THEN PROPAGATE EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SCENTRAL/SERN NEB...NCENTRAL/NERN KS LATER THIS EVENING GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 524 BEFORE 05Z. FURTHER NORTH...LARGE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER NWRN NEB. DESPITE INFLUX OF STEEP LAPSE RATE AIR INTO THE REGION AND WEAK LIFT ON SRN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...THE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE NERN QUARTER OF WW 522 WILL LIKELY REMAIN STABLE ENOUGH THAT NEW SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REMNANT LEFT SPLITTING SUPERCELL OVER WW 523 SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS OVER SERN SD...SO A NEW WW EAST OF WW 523 IS NOT ANTICIPATED. NEW SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER REMAINS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OVER SWRN SD AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF NRN WY/SERN MT AND SUPPORTS LARGE SCALE LIFT ON UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG NRN EDGE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER WRN NEB. ..CROSBIE.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU... 44800160 43080353 42940212 41390212 40610241 40120322 38710327 38790101 38709979 38689748 41529692 41620043 43070065 44729845 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 06:38:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 02:38:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210639 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210638 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-210845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1267 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IN/WRN OH/N CENTRAL KY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 210638Z - 210845Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN INDIANA...WHERE MARGINAL HAIL THREAT EXISTS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR -- AS A WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE IF MORE EXPANSIVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND SUBSEQUENT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN INDIANA...ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE NOSE OF THE WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS OCCURRING. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST THAT STORMS ARE ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER -- AND THUS MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY ISOLATED STORM SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF MARGINAL HAIL. HOWEVER...GIVEN SHALLOW NATURE OF THE STABLE LAYER...AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION ON THE MESOSCALE COULD RESULT IN A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ANY SIGNS OF MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION...WHICH COULD SUBSEQUENTLY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... 41338528 40598370 39648412 38138419 37848547 38308633 40228652 40978639 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 06:49:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 02:49:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210650 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210649 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-210815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...IA...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525... VALID 210649Z - 210815Z LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEB WILL LIKELY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF IA/MO OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE WW. RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEB MOVING EASTWARD AT 25-30 KT. OVERALL INTENSITY OF STORMS HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS DIURNAL COOLING WEAKENED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL REMAIN IN AN AXIS OF VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCAPE OVER 2000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH 35-40 KT WESTERLY 500MB FLOW AND 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. MORE IMPORTANTLY...SHEAR PROFILES...SIZE OF MCS...AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION/ ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTIVE COLD POOL FORMATION. WE WILL MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY FOR SIGNS OF UPSCALE ORGANIZATION WHICH WOULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. ..HART.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 41629625 42179503 42399216 41819100 40469100 39849192 39799430 39879611 40619655 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 11:27:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 07:27:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211127 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211127 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-211330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1269 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 211127Z - 211330Z CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES DEVELOPING NWD ACROSS ERN IA/NRN IL/SRN WI. STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY-GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS SRN WI...BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE ERN IA/CENTRAL AND NRN IL/NRN MO REGION WITH TIME. 40 TO 50 KT WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH A VERY SHALLOW...NOCTURNALLY-STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED FROM NEB EWD INTO NRN IL/FAR SRN WI. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLY-STRONG WIND FIELD VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO WLY AT 40 TO 50 KT AT MID-LEVELS HAS SUPPORTED TRANSIENT SEVERE STORMS -- WITH HAIL AND A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS. AREA OF STORMS HAS SHOWN NWD PROPAGATION WITH TIME ACROSS ERN IA AND INTO SRN WI DESPITE WLY MEAN FLOW/CELL MOTION -- APPARENTLY DUE TO A NWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH STORMS THUS MOVING AWAY FROM MORE FAVORABLE REGION OF WARM ADVECTION AND INTO A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS...EXPECT THREAT FOR HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIMITED. MEANWHILE...DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VIGOROUS/PERSISTENT CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY-HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS SERN WI OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING ACROSS KS/NEB ATTM...WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS CIRCULATION NOW CROSSING THE MO VALLEY INTO SWRN IA ACCORDING TO RADAR LOOP. ATTM...GREATEST THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO EXIST ALONG SRN FRINGE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...AS UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER MOVES EWD AND INTERACTS WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON SRN FRINGE OF THE MCS. WITH SWRN MOST CELLS WITHIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER -- ACROSS SERN IA -- RECENTLY EXHIBITING A MORE ELY MOVEMENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PORTION OF THE MCS FOR SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL ONSET OF A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT WHICH WOULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43808910 43578793 42038689 40678717 39798948 39699404 40579476 41899356 43349156 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 13:32:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 09:32:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211332 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211332 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-211500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1270 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0832 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211332Z - 211500Z THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE STORM ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED ACROSS SWRN IA AND THIS IS CREATING VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SUSTAINED THIS MORNING WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41079417 40799715 41149821 41769839 42519805 42889625 42789420 41909364 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 15:31:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 11:31:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211532 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211532 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-211730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1271 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA...FAR NRN IL...SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211532Z - 211730Z THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AS A DEVELOPING MCS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO FAR NRN IL AND NRN IND. AN MCS IS ONGOING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL MOVE EWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN WI AND IL WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE MCS. IN ADDITION...A 50 KT JET MID-LEVEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER ERN IA WILL INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT REMAIN NEAR THE BOUNDARY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42328832 42129122 42649219 43809192 43918852 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 16:22:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 12:22:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211623 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211622 MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-211745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1272 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MN...NRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211622Z - 211745Z A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN MAY EXPAND SWD INTO NRN WI OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ERN MANITOBA EXTENDING SSWWD INTO ERN ND. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS NRN MN AND IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF STORMS ONGOING IN THE ARROWHEAD. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND JUST AHEAD OF A 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX WHICH IS CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. AS A RESULT...A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE AND MAY EXPAND SWD ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO NRN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE IF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN FURTHER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH... 45739125 45959233 46379259 47619203 48129135 47928999 47428985 45939058 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 16:38:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 12:38:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211639 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211638 NCZ000-VAZ000-211815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1273 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...SE VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211638Z - 211815Z A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NC AND FAR SE VA. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN VA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS ERN NC INTO CNTRL SC AND CNTRL GA. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE TROUGH ARE IN THE 70S F AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVEL0PING ALONG THE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING AND INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOWN BY RUC ANALYSIS OVER WRN VA. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NC SHOW ONLY ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUBSTANTIAL VEERING EXISTS BELOW 700 MB. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 34697608 34487734 35327855 36317849 36897695 35947549 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 17:19:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 13:19:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211719 ILZ000-IAZ000-211845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL IA...FAR NW IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526... VALID 211719Z - 211845Z THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS WW 526. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER CNTRL IA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE UPPER 60S F CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. AT UPPER-LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ANALYZED BY THE RUC OVER CNTRL WI. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CNTRL IA AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN IA. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON THE SLATER IA PROFILER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW 526 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN...DMX... 40639154 40689341 41029422 42149427 42639321 42509108 41879026 41019044 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 17:57:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 13:57:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211758 COZ000-211930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1275 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211758Z - 211930Z CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL CO. AS THE STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE WITH A COLD FRONT BACKED UP AGAINST THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND FRONT RANGE. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE COLORADO SPRINGS AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE SURROUNDING PEAKS AND MOVE EWD INTO THE COLORADO PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION NEAR COLORADO SPRINGS IS DEVELOPING NEAR A MAXIMA IN MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ACCORDING TO THE RUC AND ALONG A THERMAL GRADIENT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S F JUST SOUTH OF THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA. THE HIGH SFC TEMPS ARE CREATING LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 40 DEGREES F IN PLACES SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP SUGGESTING HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37550319 37640484 38670512 39930478 39970336 39440289 38580293 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 18:06:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 14:06:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211807 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211806 MIZ000-WIZ000-211930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI / U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211806Z - 211930Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADO WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NRN WI AND WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. A WW APPEARS LIKELY. STRONG COOLING ALOFT WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ACROSS NRN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG COLD FRONT/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS NWRN WI...AND WILL INTENSIFY WITH TIME. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT/STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT STRONG...IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR. ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46079138 46959042 47548773 46508641 45748702 44678792 44739178 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 18:08:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 14:08:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211808 MIZ000-WIZ000-211945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI / U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211808Z - 211945Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NRN WI AND WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. A WW APPEARS LIKELY. STRONG COOLING ALOFT WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ACROSS NRN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG COLD FRONT/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS NWRN WI...AND WILL INTENSIFY WITH TIME. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT/STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT STRONG...IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR. ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46079138 46959042 47548773 46508641 45748702 44678792 44739178 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 18:57:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 14:57:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211858 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211857 FLZ000-212130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1277 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211857Z - 212130Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL DIAMETERS OF 0.75-1.00 IN. WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE. RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-9.0 C AT 500 MB/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE STORMS. MEAN ELY FLOW NEAR 10 KTS IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM SUGGEST STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TOWARD THE W. ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 27338084 25168051 25168112 26448184 27698271 28668267 28808191 28698143 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 19:29:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 15:29:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211928 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-212100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1278 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IL...NRN IND...NW OH...SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 527... VALID 211928Z - 212100Z THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN NRN IL...NRN IND AND NW OH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS THE STORMS DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 21Z ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN WI...SRN LOWER MI INTO WCNTRL OH. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CUMULUS FIELD EXPANDING ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS VERY WEAK ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND STORM INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED OVER NE IL AND IS RESULTING IN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. AS STORMS INITIATE...RAPID DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING IF A LINEAR MCS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 40438437 40058863 40728938 41548931 41968861 42238654 42228419 41368355  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 20:21:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 16:21:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212019 MIZ000-212145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1279 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212019Z - 212145Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN LOWER MI WITH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOW MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE MCS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WSR-88D VWPS CURRENTLY SHOW 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NRN LOWER MI SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE MCS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT. ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 43488473 43658652 44568719 45358631 45458431 44768307 43708348  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 20:25:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 16:25:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212024 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-212300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1280 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0324 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SW KS...ERN OK PANHANDLE AND NRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212024Z - 212300Z SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL INITIATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. A WW WILL LIKELY SOON. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE INCREASED DUE TO PERSISTENT SLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DIFFUSE STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED NE-SW ACROSS KS. THE STRONGEST HEATING AND STEEPEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST ACROSS FAR SWRN KS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND THIS IS WHERE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AS CAPPING IS STRONGER FARTHER E. GIVEN VERY LARGE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF 20-35 KTS IS NOT OPTIMAL FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE FROM SWRN AND CENTRAL KS INTO NRN KS...WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR LEFT-MOVERS. FARTHER S INTO OK AND TX...DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY GIVEN VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENHANCING OUTFLOW. ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 39489704 38439694 37939749 37249794 36359951 35720028 35170094 34590172 34420258 34520295 34950305 36280233 36720207 37320163 37950112 38500073 39329982 39959846 39909751 39769718  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 21:25:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 17:25:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212125 OHZ000-MIZ000-212200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1281 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0425 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI / NRN-CENTRAL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212125Z - 212200Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR SERN LOWER MI INTO PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL OH. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE NERN AND SERN PARTS OF WW 530. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE... GIVEN MOIST SWLY FLOW. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS SERN LOWER MI INDICATED LIKELIHOOD FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS BECOMING SEVERE AS NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO SERN LOWER MI AND NRN/CENTRAL OH. ..PETERS.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41578431 42028432 42718405 42648311 41868276 41448179 40718182 39938200 39938303 40108390 41038385 41438400 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 21:37:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 17:37:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212138 MIZ000-WIZ000-212315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1282 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0438 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WI...UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 528... VALID 212138Z - 212315Z THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND CONTINUES OVER ERN WI AS WELL AS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN U.P. OF MI. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY SURVIVE E OF CURRENT WW...BUT ANOTHER WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STORMS HAVE REMAINED RATHER ISOLATED WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT NOTED OVER NERN WI AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERING...AND DEWPOINTS DECREASING...TEMPERATURES/LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN HIGH THUS INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE. GIVEN STRONG WLY SHEAR VECTORS AND CONTINUED FORCING WITH UPPER TROUGH...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED. ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...ARX... 44978324 44368326 44548664 44198770 44189009 47278821 46908476 45908360 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 23:25:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 19:25:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212326 KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-220100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1285 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 529... VALID 212326Z - 220100Z SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND HAVE MERGED INTO LARGE CLUSTER ACROSS SERN CO...AND WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW WITH HIGH WIND THREAT. ASIDE FROM THIS CLUSTER...MORE DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS ELY SFC-850 FLOW PERSISTS AND BRINGS HIGHER DEWPOINTS WWD. DEPARTURE OF MAIN CLUSTER MAY ALLOW MASS FIELDS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CO. DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED ON RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. E OF THE WW INTO W CENTRAL KS...THREAT OF SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL WILL EXIST IF CO STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM NWD AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 37000205 36960501 39980497 39990361 38620198 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 00:25:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 20:25:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220025 OHZ000-MIZ000-220130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI / NRN-CENTRAL INTO ERN OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 532... VALID 220025Z - 220130Z SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS WW 532 THIS EVENING. NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WW INTO ERN PARTS OF OH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION PER INCREASING SWLY LLJ ACROSS OH VALLEY IS CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS EWD INTO ERN OH. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN ESTABLISHED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM NWRN OH EWD ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE... REACHING NRN ERIE COUNTY. CURRENT TRACK OF THIS LEAD ACTIVITY SHOWED STORMS MOVING EAST OF WW 532 INTO LORAIN COUNTY BETWEEN 2330- 01Z. 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ATOP SWLY 30-35 KT LLJ ARE MAINTAINING STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES FROM W-E. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS LOCATED NORTH OF THE SERN LOWER MI/NWRN OH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT...GIVEN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD THROUGH LOWER MI AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX... 40468379 41718417 42718403 43128263 42878249 41648233 41608134 41878072 41248059 40428077 40238145 40308285 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 00:45:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 20:45:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220046 KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-220245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1287 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...MUCH OF KS...SERN NEBRASKA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 531...533... VALID 220046Z - 220245Z THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY OVER MOST OF KS AND SERN NEBRASKA...WITH SMALLER HAIL LIKELY OVER TX. DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE IN THE WATCHES. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND SERN CO STORM CLUSTER. NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS FORMED OVER NERN CO...ESSENTIALLY LINKED UP WITH ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY ENTER WRN KS. TO THE SE..SEVERE STORMS PERSIS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SERN NEB. INTO SWRN KS...AND ALONG DRYLINE INTO TX PANHANDLE. RAPID DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN KS WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE NEXT FEW HOURS. TO THE SOUTH...STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL PERSIST AS WELL GIVEN SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AMPLE FEED OF INSTABILITY NWD. LATER IN THE NIGHT...STORM CLUSTER COULD MERGE TOGETHER INTO A LARGER MCS...SHIFTING SEWD TOWARD THE ICT AREA AND INTO NRN OK LATE...WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT. 01Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK WILL BE SHIFTED EAST TO REFLECT LATEST THINKING. ..JEWELL.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB... 34759995 34740038 34320042 34360204 34740207 34710296 36940298 36990207 38240205 38280019 39140008 39159959 40029964 40029833 40359825 40359737 40699733 40749691 41079685 41069640 40839642 40789581 40169542 39969526 39679532 39649549 39449552 39429512 38979513 38959499 38739504 38719548 38379557 38389586 38129592 38029725 37869725 37919762 37689783 37329788 37339827 37059834 36959995 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 02:08:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 22:08:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220207 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-220230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1288 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0907 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MI/NERN IND/NWRN OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 530... VALID 220207Z - 220230Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MI...NERN IND AND NWRN OH THROUGH 03Z. WRN MOST STORMS...NOW LOCATED OVER CALHOUN COUNTY MI AND ALLEN/WELLS COUNTIES IND SHOULD MOVE EAST OF WW 530 JUST AFTER 03Z ALLOWING THIS WW TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. UNTIL 03Z...AIR MASS ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 530 REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AT 40-50 KT SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH 03Z. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... 40448532 41378505 42418521 42768507 42768411 41438397 40568392 40178409 40358502  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 02:10:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 22:10:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220209 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-220415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1289 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0909 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NWRN KS/FAR SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 529...535... VALID 220209Z - 220415Z THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN LIMITED FOR THE REMAINDER OF WW 529 THROUGH THE EXPIRATION TIME /03Z/ OVER THE FRONT RANGE NERN CO. FURTHER EAST...CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NERN CO WITH LEFT AND RIGHT SPLITS MOVING NEWD/SEWD RESPECTIVELY INTO FAR SWRN NEB/NWRN KS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. NRN HALF OF WW 529 OVER NERN CO HAS NOT BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFIED DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT MOVED ACROSS SERN CO INTO SWRN/WCENTRAL KS. MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER WRN CO AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG PER THE 00Z DNR SOUNDING/ SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HR OR SO ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO. LONG TERM SVR THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HIGH...SO A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO REPLACE WW 529. HOWEVER...WW 529 MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY PER WFO DISCRETION. FURTHER EAST OVER FAR ERN CO..NWRN KS AND SWRN NEB...GLD VWP AND MCK PROFILER DATA SHOWS MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR /35-40 KTS/ WITH STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS. SPLITTING SUPERCELLS HAVE RESULTED WITH THE MAIN SVR THREAT OVER WW 535 REMAINING ACROSS FAR ECENTRAL/NERN CO THROUGH 03Z. SUPERCELL STROM MOTIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SLOW DUE TO ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW...LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND THREAT WITH THESE CELLS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH NWRN KS/FAR SWRN NEB UNTIL AFTER 03Z. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SWRN KS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD INTO SRN PORTION OF WW 535. MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DMGG WINDS DUE TO LINEAR NATURE OF STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 40140131 40010344 39990487 38920466 38430429 38280265 38379948 40209962  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 02:44:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 22:44:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220245 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-220445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1290 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0945 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES...NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 531... VALID 220245Z - 220445Z OUTFLOW COLLISIONS OVER SWRN KS AND THE NRN/ERN TX PANHANDLES MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL SVR THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 531 EXPIRATION TIME. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ORGANIZING OVER THE NERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN OK...MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR THREAT AS IT MOVES EWD INTO NRN OK. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW OVER THIS AREA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PRESSURE RISES OVER THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE...WHERE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING. CONVECTIVE LINE WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZING IN NWRN OK. HOWEVER INTERPOLATION OF THE 00Z OUN/DDC SOUNDINGS SHOWS WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CINH SHOULD EXIST OVER NRN OK. HOWEVER IF COLD POOL IS DEEP ENOUGH THEN WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/INFLOW CONVECTIVE LINE MAY BE SUSTAINED OR INCREASE IN STRENGTH. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...SVR THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW OVER NRN OK. FURTHER WEST...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE MAY MERGE WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AND SUPPORT RENEWED ISOLATED SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT BUT THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE. OVER SWRN KS...MOST OF THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER...BUT COLLAPSING TSTMS MAY SUPPORT DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE SVR THREAT OVER WW 531 IS ANTICIPATED TO WANE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAK FORCING...SO WW 531 SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 38099953 38190129 38060155 36190224 35610116 35550055 35499780 35589732 36679670 37349783 37299975 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 03:25:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 23:25:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220325 OHZ000-MIZ000-220400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1291 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI AND NORTH CENTRAL OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 532... VALID 220325Z - 220400Z SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO EXIT MUCH OF WW 532 BY 04Z. THE SERN PART OF THIS WW FROM CRAWFORD/MARION COUNTIES TO ASHLAND TO KNOW COUNTIES MAY REQUIRE A LOCAL WFO EXTENTION GIVEN THAT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD NOT EXIT THIS PART OF WW 532 UNTIL 05Z. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A COUPLE OF LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NRN OH...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING TO THE ESE AT 30-40 KT. THESE LINES OF STORMS ARE TRACKING ESEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED FROM THE SOUTHWEST PER A 35 KT SWLY LLJ AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM SRN IL/IND INTO SWRN-SRN OH. GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AS WAS EVIDENT AT FDY AROUND 03Z WITH A RECORDED SEVERE WIND GUST OF 53 KT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS SERN LOWER MI AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL OH IN THE WAKE OF THE WRN MOST LINE OF STORMS...GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AND INSTABILITY REMAINING SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41748239 40848213 40188232 40398339 40258385 42758419 43158244 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 03:27:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 23:27:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220328 COR OHZ000-MIZ000-220400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1291 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI AND NORTH CENTRAL OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 532... VALID 220328Z - 220400Z CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN FIRST PARAGRAPH SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO EXIT MUCH OF WW 532 BY 04Z. THE SERN PART OF THIS WW FROM CRAWFORD/MARION COUNTIES TO ASHLAND TO KNOX COUNTIES MAY REQUIRE A LOCAL WFO EXTENTION GIVEN THAT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD NOT EXIT THIS PART OF WW 532 UNTIL 05Z. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A COUPLE OF LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NRN OH...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING TO THE ESE AT 30-40 KT. THESE LINES OF STORMS ARE TRACKING ESEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED FROM THE SOUTHWEST PER A 35 KT SWLY LLJ AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM SRN IL/IND INTO SWRN-SRN OH. GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AS WAS EVIDENT AT FDY AROUND 03Z WITH A RECORDED SEVERE WIND GUST OF 53 KT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS SERN LOWER MI AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL OH IN THE WAKE OF THE WRN MOST LINE OF STORMS...GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AND INSTABILITY REMAINING SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41748239 40848213 40188232 40398339 40258385 42758419 43158244 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 03:44:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 23:44:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220345 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-220545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1292 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN KS...NRN MO/FAR SRN IA AND SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533... VALID 220345Z - 220545Z CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER CENTRAL/ERN KS JUST SOUTH OF I-70 WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY SEWD. MERGING OUTFLOW BNDRYS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SVR THREAT BECOMING MORE OF A HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS OVER CENTRAL/ECENTRAL KS. DESPITE INCREASING CINH...CONVECTIVE LINE OVER FAR NWRN OK/SCENTRAL KS MAY PERSIST FOR A WHILE GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG COLD POOL THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE. SVR CLUSTER OVER CENTRAL KS HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SWD SUPPORTED BY MODEST PRESSURE RISES. HOWEVER...EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BNDRY OVER SWRN KS HAS BEGUN TO MERGE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND IS NOW SUPPORTING A SLOWER MVMNT SPEED ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER /SLN AND RSL AREA/. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ROUGHLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I-70 OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AS THE SWRN KS OUTFLOW SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTED BY A STRONG REAR INFLOW JET /50 KTS PER THE 02Z GDA PROFILER DATA/. DMGG WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...BUT AS MERGING OUTFLOWS AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE MODE...HVY RAIN WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT. FURTHER SOUTH...INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT STRONGER INFLOW INTO CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NWRN OK AND PORTIONS OF FAR SCENTRAL KS. DESPITE STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE AND MATURE COLD POOL...INCREASING CINH SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE SVR THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. FINALLY...OVER SERN NEB SMALLER CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY / REF 00Z OMA SOUNDING/ AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. ADDITIONALLY INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE AND A MARGINAL SVR THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO FAR SRN IA AND NRN MO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES NOTED ON THE 00Z TOP SOUNDING. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTH SUGGESTS THAT AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND A NEW WW EAST OF WW 533 IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD... 40859245 40919474 40799634 39519716 38919959 38640045 38410029 38219849 37379862 37189888 36999766 37119499 38569460 39329230 39999193 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 04:04:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 00:04:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220405 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220405 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-220530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1293 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH / WRN PA/ NRN WV PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536... VALID 220405Z - 220530Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD THROUGH WRN PART OF WW 536 BETWEEN 04-06Z. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM RICHLAND TO LORAIN COUNTIES OH AND MOVING TO THE ESE AT 40 KT. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXTENDED EWD INTO NERN OH/NWRN PA. THE WRN MOST STORMS ARE THE STRONGEST AND WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED OVER IND/WRN-SRN OH PER 35 KT SWLY LLJ. THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO ERN OH WITH A RECENT HISTORY OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE ESE REACHING THE NRN WV PANHANDLE COUNTIES OF HANCOCK TO OHIO TOWARD 06Z. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN... 40158220 41988229 42377992 41967896 41167878 40367896 40057926 39948050 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 14:25:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 10:25:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221426 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221403 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-221530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0903 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY...SRN IL...FAR SW IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221403Z - 221530Z A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WRN KY...SRN IL AND FAR SW IND. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORM COVERAGE EXPANDS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MO INTO NCNTRL IL AND FAR NRN IND. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F AND STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF SRN IL...SRN IND AND WRN KY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WRN KY AND SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS EXPAND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NWD THIS MORNING. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM SUGGESTING A HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH... 37028917 37828924 38478868 38548743 37628668 36788713 36578832 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 14:55:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 10:55:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221456 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221455 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-221630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1296 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0955 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE IL...IND AND OH...NRN KY...NRN WV...FAR WRN PA CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 221455Z - 221630Z AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF SE IL...IND...OH...NRN KY...NRN WV AND FAR WRN PA FOR TODAY. THE OUTLOOK DISCUSSION CONCERNING THIS MODERATE RISK UPGRADE WILL BE ISSUED BY 1630Z. ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH... 37028917 37828924 38478868 38548743 37628668 36788713 36578832 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 16:21:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 12:21:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221622 ILZ000-MOZ000-221745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1297 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MO...WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221622Z - 221745Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN SCNTRL MO ON THE SRN END OF AN MCS. AS THE CELLS EXPAND IN COVERAGE...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL DEVELOP. A WW WILL BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC MESOLOW OVER SE MO WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME UNCAPPED AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN SRN MO. THE AIRMASS IN WHICH THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR STRONG MULTICELLS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 37999009 37359259 37779314 38439319 38829277 39559027 38538940 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 16:37:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 12:37:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221638 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221637 OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-221800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IL/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA INTO WESTERN OH/FAR NORTHERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537... VALID 221637Z - 221800Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537 CONTINUES UNTIL 19Z...WITH SEVERE THREAT STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY SOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO WESTERN OH...AND PERHAPS FAR NORTHERN KY. WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS -- EXTENDING FROM NEAR SOUTH BEND TO LAFAYETTE INDIANA AS OF 1630Z -- WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN WW 537. FURTHER SOUTH...TOWERING CU IS EVIDENT FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AT THIS TIME. ACCORDINGLY...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS ERODED OVER A BROAD AREA OF THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA INTO WESTERN OH/NORTHERN KY. WITH STEADILY INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND EVOLUTION OF LINEAR CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED SOON ON THE PERIPHERY OF WW 537. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH... 39878740 40348569 41738437 41358308 40818266 39898240 39038303 38048489 38168680 39008743 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 17:10:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 13:10:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221711 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221710 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-221845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1299 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NWRN AR...FAR SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221710Z - 221845Z THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ERN OK AND NW AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SCNTRL MO SWWD INTO NERN OK ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE. NEW STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN KS WITH A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE SUGGESTING THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO AN AXIS OF VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ESPECIALLY AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN... 34679315 35119641 36089674 36969584 36499284 35719241 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 17:44:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 13:44:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221745 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221745 MOZ000-221915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1300 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221745Z - 221915Z NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN MO TO THE WEST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538. STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MO OVER THE PAST HOUR...INCLUDING A RECENT 1 INCH HAIL REPORT IN CASS COUNTY MO. AS THE STORM ENTERS HENRY COUNTY IT APPEARS TO BE EXHIBITING AT LEAST MID LEVEL ROTATION...LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO BACKGROUND VORTICITY VIA CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MCV. NARROW CORRIDOR OF SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE WEST OF WW 538...HOWEVER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST MO BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY ENTERS WW 538. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... 37869446 38669416 39349330 39079242 38329243 37539343 37319435 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 17:46:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 13:46:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221747 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221746 COZ000-NMZ000-221915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1301 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/CNTRL CO...NRN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221746Z - 221915Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ECNTRL CO AND NRN NM. A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY BY THE 19-20Z TIMEFRAME. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF ERN CO WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGING DEWPOINTS UPWARD IN THE UPPER 50S F AND LOWER 60S F. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT CONTINUED SFC HEATING SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE CO AS WELL. AS STORMS MOVE EWD OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. THE PROFILER IN SERN CO SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...A WELL-DEFINED DENVER CYCLONE IS PRESENT AND THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE INCREASING THE SUPERCELL THREAT ACROSS NE CO AS WELL. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR AS SUPERCELLS MATURE IN THE CO PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 35860436 36090619 37290631 38740577 40340489 40470365 39720249 37720322 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 18:30:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 14:30:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221829 PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-222000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1302 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WV...WRN PA...FAR WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221829Z - 222000Z THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EWD INTO WRN PA AND WV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW WILL BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY. LATEST ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS SRN OH...WRN PA AND WV WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT. CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION IS ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN OH IN AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EXPANDING THE CONVECTION AND MOVING THE STORMS EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A JET NEAR 700 MB ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. AS A RESULT...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND/OR STRONG MULTICELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE... 37968101 38538174 40008112 41738024 42617923 41947747 40197809 37957954  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 19:11:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 15:11:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221912 TXZ000-OKZ000-222045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1303 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221912Z - 222045Z STORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND AS STORMS INITIATE AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WEST TX. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WSWWD FROM SW OK INTO ERN NM. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25 KT SUGGESTING SEVERE MULTICELLS AND/OR SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE IN THE 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM RANGE WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 33170141 33260245 33790282 35450289 36340267 36520163 36250012 34389996 33450014 33250054 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 19:30:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 15:30:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221931 SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-222100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1304 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF GA/EASTERN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221931Z - 222100Z STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST/HAIL THREAT THROUGH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF GA/EASTERN AL/FL PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. IN PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH...HOT TEMPERATURES/WELL MIXED AIRMASS HAS LEAD TO PULSE-TYPE STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PRESENCE OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. GIVEN MOIST AIRMASS /PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG IN PRESENCE OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /20 KTS OR LESS PER ATLANTA WSR-88D WVP/...AN EPISODIC SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE MORE ROBUST STORMS. ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB... 35538537 35788341 35438258 33708254 32538265 30358335 30348502 31108614 32628644 34008636 35178596 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 20:12:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 16:12:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222012 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-222145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1305 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...OH...NE KY...WV...WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 541... VALID 222012Z - 222145Z A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO IS DEVELOPING AND WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS ERN OH AND WRN PA. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE ERIE WSWWD INTO NRN IND AND CNTRL IL. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL FUEL A LINEAR MCS EWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE MCS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 55 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX JUST BEHIND THE MCS WHICH IS CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONG WINDS AT MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SFC BY THE MCS AND MAY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN OH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN OR OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX... 37678217 37608394 38278489 39988474 41528412 42018210 41607944 38458009 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 20:19:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 16:19:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222020 KSZ000-222145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222020Z - 222145Z WITH AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS WESTERN KS. STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHWEST KS NEAR GOODLAND/COLBY KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING BOUNDARY IN PRESENCE OF EASTERLY UPSLOPE REGIME. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST KS REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WHERE THE AMBIENT AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATIVE OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. PER GRANADA/RED WILLOW PROFILERS...MODEST MID LEVEL WESTERLIES ATOP LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/UPDRAFT ROTATION. IT APPEARS A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED SOON. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... 39400184 39440022 38369930 37209919 37150014 37200141 37650179 38290185 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 20:40:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 16:40:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222039 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-222245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1307 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO WESTERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538...540... VALID 222039Z - 222245Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 538 AND 540 CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES NAMELY IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KY...THIS IS EAST OF WELL ORGANIZED SOUTH CENTRAL MO MCS...EASTWARD INTO A RELATIVELY UNPERTURBED MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN INDIANA/WESTERN KY. STRONG INSOLATION WITH 90S F TEMPERATURES/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS IS SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3250 J/KG IN THE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODEST /20 KTS PER BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILER/...EASTWARD MOVING SOUTH CENTRAL MO MCS/COLD POOL AND CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE THE RELATIVELY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO EARLY EVENING...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 36709349 38309293 39659080 39708645 39158574 37888627 36878687 36468836 36659001  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 21:30:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 17:30:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222129 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222129 COZ000-222300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0429 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 542... VALID 222129Z - 222300Z TORNADO WATCH 542 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO...WITH CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CO IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. SEVERAL TORNADOES WERE REPORTED EARLIER IN DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES. COMBINATION OF VEERING WIND PROFILES AND MOIST AIRMASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ASIDE FROM LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES -- SEEMINGLY MOST LIKELY IN LINCOLN AND PERHAPS CROWLEY/WESTERN KIOWA COUNTIES IN THE SHORT TERM -- ALTHOUGH EAST CENTRAL CO STORMS MAY TEND TO BE UNDERCUT BY SOUTHWARD SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 39110451 39110288 38810221 37220212 37150251 37170381 37160480 38190486 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 21:43:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 17:43:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222143 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222143 NYZ000-PAZ000-NJZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-222215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1309 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0443 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN PA/SRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 543... VALID 222143Z - 222215Z NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL/ERN PA AND SRN NY. THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS WW 543 DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS WRN PA WITH AN ESTABLISHED BOW ECHO...NOW LOCATED OVER ERN OH /SUMMIT TO NRN COSHOCTON COUNTIES/...APPROACHING WRN PART OF WW 543 BY 22-2230Z. AIR MASS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO ERN PA/SRN NY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. DESPITE ONGOING STORMS OVER WRN PA...CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNING THE AIR MASS...THE ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WITH THE BOW ECHO AND 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSLATING EWD TO NRN PA/SRN NY THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE BOW STRUCTURE AND ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER EAST...THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE EWD AIDING IN AN INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN NY/NRN PA...WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO SUPPORT STORMS MAINTAINING SEVERE POTENTIAL EWD OF WW 543. THUS...NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR CENTRAL-ERN PA AND SRN NY. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE... 38047993 38078243 42078037 42687892 42917762 42777561 42167476 41307492 40267554 39757669 39197817 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 22:34:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 18:34:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222234 KSZ000-230000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1310 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 545... VALID 222234Z - 230000Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 545 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL/SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUE FROM EAST CENTRAL CO INTO WEST CENTRAL KS...NAMELY FROM GREELEY COUNTY KS TO RUSH/ELLIS COUNTIES KS AS OF 2230Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. LARGE HAIL/SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO 15-20 KTS OF STORM RELATIVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. SUSTAINED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED AS STORMS TEND TO BE UNDERCUT BY SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD... 38780175 38830052 38749933 38009836 37349835 37149956 37250161 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 22:45:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 18:45:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222245 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-230015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1311 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM AND OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544... VALID 222245Z - 230015Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH CONTINUED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. ASIDE FROM A PERIODIC SEVERE THREAT IN THE TX PANHANDLE IN A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY FROM NEAR AMARILLO TO SOUTH OF LUBBOCK...A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IN WW 544 APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS NORTHEAST NM AND THE OK PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERAL RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED MCS CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...ONE SOUTH OF THE CO/NM BORDER NORTH OF CLAYTON NM...ANOTHER ONE ENTERING KIOWA COUNTY CO NORTH OF LAMAR/LA JUNTA AS OF 2230Z. MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/FORWARD PROPAGATION INTO A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF WW 544 THIS EVENING AS ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED MCS/S...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 36440506 36830346 36730139 36070011 33890045 33660237 34350464 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 23:08:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 19:08:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222308 INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-222345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL/FAR SERN MO/SRN IND/WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 540... VALID 222308Z - 222345Z NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED BY 00Z TO REPLACE MOST OF WW 540. REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND/OR MCV NOW LOCATED OVER ALONG THE MO/IL BORDER AND TRACKING EWD. ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN A LINE OF BROKEN THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SWWD FROM SWRN IL /JUST E OF STL/ TO NERN AR. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR WHERE THE AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000-2500 J/KG/. DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 20 KT/ WIND FIELDS ENHANCED BY MCV MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. IN ADDITION...ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE LINE OF STORMS SPREADS EWD THIS EVENING INTO FAR SERN MO/SRN IL TO SRN IND/WRN KY. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 36579084 39518859 39528565 39478534 38618548 36598684 36488928 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 23:50:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 19:50:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222350 COZ000-230115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1313 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 542... VALID 222350Z - 230115Z SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TORNADO WATCH 542 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 01Z. IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS/LEADING EDGE OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOWS...PRIMARY SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT REMAINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO...NAMELY IN PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES. WHILE LARGE HAIL/A FEW TORNADOES HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN SOUTHEAST CO...STABILIZING COLD POOL IN WAKE OF MCS/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION OUT OF SOUTHEAST CO SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT IN TORNADO WATCH 542. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38370460 38610294 38600242 37450222 37160243 37120406 37190487 37790496  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 00:20:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 20:20:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230021 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-230215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1314 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM/TX AND OK PANHANDLES/SOUTHERN KS/NORTHWEST OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544...545... VALID 230021Z - 230215Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 544/545 CONTINUE UNTIL 04Z...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATEST LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM/SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/NORTHWEST OK. RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED MCS...DRIVEN BY STRONG COLD POOL/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO/ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OK THROUGH MID EVENING. DOWNSTREAM OF THE MCS...A CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY UNPERTURBED AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS/NORTHEAST NM INTO THE OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OK...WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG PER AUGMENTED RUC SOUNDINGS. MODEST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND ADEQUATE INSTABILITY OUTSIDE OF EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS /NAMELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLES/ SUGGESTS CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FORWARD PROPAGATION INTO 20 KNOTS OF LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL CONTINUING. ..GUYER.. 06/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36120417 36490246 37810158 38219854 36559747 34670054 34080334 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 00:38:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 20:38:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230038 PAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-230145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1315 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN IND/SRN OH/SWRN PA/CENTRAL-ERN KY/MUCH OF WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 541...543... VALID 230038Z - 230145Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PARTS OF WW/S 541 AND 543 THROUGH 02Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUING TO MOVE EWD THROUGH SWRN PA AND BEGINNING TO ENTER SWRN PART OF WW 546. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED SWWD INTO CENTRAL AND WRN WV...WITH A SECOND LINE OF STORMS ADVANCING ESE THROUGH FAR SRN OH/FAR WRN WV AT THIS TIME. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...BUT GENERALLY MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25 KT SHOULD RESULT IN LIMITED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH 02Z. FARTHER W...CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING NNEWD THROUGH CENTRAL IND SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE /RECENT 38 KT WIND GUST PER 2345Z SURFACE OBSERVATION AT IND/ AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FARTHER NWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. ..PETERS.. 06/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND... 36808677 38518608 39568565 39848361 40597865 40507867 38067989 37608156 36838312 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 01:08:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 21:08:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230108 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-230215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0808 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN-SERN NY/ERN-SRN PA/FAR NRN MD/NRN-WRN NJ/NRN DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546... VALID 230108Z - 230215Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS ERN PART OF WW 546 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH SRN CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD REACHING FAR ERN PA/WRN NJ/FAR NRN DE BY 02Z. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 546. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING THROUGH THE PA COUNTIES OF LYCOMING TO WRN SCHUYLKILL TO FRANKLIN. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS AREA AND EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM INTO NJ/DE AND NRN MD REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...SUGGESTING FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WILL CONTINUE EWD WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SPREADING EAST OF WW 546 BY 02Z. ..PETERS.. 06/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 39787903 40007879 40127775 40477719 41017690 41867701 42287684 42777628 42757463 42097417 40907402 40007444 39677476 39307538 39427638  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 03:34:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 23:34:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230334 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-230430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1317 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE/NW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544... VALID 230334Z - 230430Z ...ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS MAINLY NW OK ASSOCIATED WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH MCS... LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOWS THAT THE MOST INTENSE AREA OF ONGOING MCS IS ACROSS BEAVER THROUGH WOODS CO IN NW OK...SWWD THROUGH LIPSCOMB/ROBERTS CO TX. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FROM AMA TO CVS...AS AIRMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY EARLIER STORMS. LOCAL RADAR FROM AMA SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS OUTRUN STRATIFORM RAIN BY NEARLY 30 MILES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW GUSTS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 40 MPH. WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY WEAK...SO STORMS WILL HAVE TO MOVE BY PROPAGATION LARGELY. GIVEN RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS...HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NW OK IS LIKELY WITH 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RATES. SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MERGING CELLS AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ANOTHER WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..TAYLOR.. 06/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 35609838 34820170 34180292 35600273 36930160 37389855 36479797 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 03:48:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 23:48:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230349 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-230415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1318 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA/WRN NJ/FAR NRN DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546... VALID 230349Z - 230415Z WW 546 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z...OR MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY BY THE LOCAL WFO...GIVEN THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT HAS ALL BUT ENDED. AIR MASS ACROSS THE VALID PART OF WW 546 /PA COUNTIES OF YORK AND LANCASTER/ WHICH IS IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW WEAKENING ALONG THE PA/NJ BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE...AND THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 06/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39767704 40227647 40477575 40907534 41057492 40787471 39877474 39527547 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 14:41:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2006 10:41:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231441 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231441 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-231615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1319 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0941 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN VA...MD...DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231441Z - 231615Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN NRN VA...MD AND DE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS CNTRL VA. EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO INITIATE AND ORGANIZE NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALLOW THE STORMS TO INTENSIFY. WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST SHEAR PROFILES ARE ADEQUATE FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATE THIS MORNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP...HAIL COULD ALSO BE A THREAT DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 37567667 37267746 37047838 37537901 38237915 38847836 39177732 39537625 39417541 38517490 37977550 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 15:52:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2006 11:52:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231553 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231552 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-231715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1320 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...NW GA...TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231552Z - 231715Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVES EWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN...NRN AL AND NW GA 0VER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 17Z ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM NRN AR EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS WRN TN INTO CNTRL KY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS ALREADY PRESENT THIS MORNING. THE INSTABILITY WILL FUEL THE CONVECTION ALLOWING THE LINE TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXISTING FROM NRN AL EXTENDING NNEWD INTO ECNTRL TN. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.0 C/KM ALONG THIS AXIS AND MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS THE LINE MOVES EWD. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED IN OR AHEAD OF THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34078512 33908779 34928823 36008731 35918484 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 17:08:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2006 13:08:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231709 NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-231845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1321 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC...NW SC...FAR NE GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231709Z - 231845Z AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WSWWD FROM WV INTO CNTRL KY AND WRN TN. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES ALREADY IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THIS WILL FUEL THE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM IN PLACES. THIS MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... 35417995 34668097 34268239 34658381 35718342 36578139 36348003 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 17:31:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2006 13:31:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231731 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-231930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MA/CT/RI/SOUTHEAST NY/SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHERN VT/NJ/EASTERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231731Z - 231930Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NY/NJ/EASTERN PA. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT CUMULUS FIELD DEEPENING OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST NY ACROSS MA AND SOUTHERN NH. A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NY/PA/NJ...WITH UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS COMMON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODIFIED 12Z ALBANY/LONG ISLAND/CHATHAM OBSERVED RAOBS SUGGEST NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH MLCAPES VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PRESENCE OF 30-35 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ..GUYER.. 06/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 43397209 43397119 43207067 42587110 41917111 41507181 41357268 40747334 39977429 39597494 40017585 41487541 42277401 42687301 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 26 15:37:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2006 11:37:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261538 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261537 MNZ000-NDZ000-261700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1355 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1037 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN...PARTS OF ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261537Z - 261700Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW. MID-LEVEL COOLING ACCOMPANYING STRONG DIGGING UPPER JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE CENTRAL U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AREA. DEEPENING CONVECTION IS ALREADY EVIDENT...MOSTLY ALONG COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME...GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY NEAR/JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF MID-LEVEL COLD CORE /500 MB TEMPS TO -20C/...SPREADING SOUTH OF THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA. RISK OF HAIL IS PROBABLY PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. SHEAR/FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...MAINLY WITH ANY PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY DEEPER INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS... 48569287 48079331 47379445 47269625 47599708 47699945 47820063 48290117 48930100 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 26 16:39:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2006 12:39:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261639 INZ000-ILZ000-261815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1356 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...IL...IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261639Z - 261815Z A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING/INCREASING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING AND SURFACE WARMING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...FOCUSED NEAR 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. EVOLUTION INTO A SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE/CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18-21Z...AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN TROUGH...AND PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ROUGHLY BETWEEN QUINCY AND ST. LOUIS. FLOW/SHEAR REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS IS RATHER WEAK...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG COULD STILL SUPPORT BRIEF STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BECOME MINIMIZED AS OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BECOME DOMINANT. ..KERR.. 06/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 41338851 41478737 40878658 40098726 39158750 38348791 37688893 38548912 39248912 39898976 40908932 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 26 20:39:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2006 16:39:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262039 MNZ000-NDZ000-262215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1357 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557... VALID 262039Z - 262215Z CONTINUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ON LEADING/SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET...SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF WATCH AREA. HOWEVER...STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION STILL APPEARS TO REMAIN FOCUSED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MID-LEVEL COLD CORE NOW SHIFTING INTO/THROUGH THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA...WHERE A CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO GROW. IN ADDITIONAL TO CONTINUING RISK OF HAIL...GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS...MAY BECOME AN INCREASE THREAT THROUGH 22-23Z ACROSS THE BEMIDJI/GRAND FORKS AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF BRAINERD. ..KERR.. 06/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 48859541 48549431 47779388 47149439 46999548 47129682 47539804 48249844 48619717 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 26 23:51:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2006 19:51:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262352 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262351 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-270145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1358 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN ND...NRN/W-CENTRAL MN. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557... VALID 262351Z - 270145Z ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF WW AREA HAS BEEN STABILIZED EITHER BY OUTFLOW OR BY NEGATIVE BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE ADVECTION BEHIND WIND SHIFT/FROPA. PORTIONS WW OVER E-CENTRAL/NERN ND AND NERN MN ALREADY HAVE BEEN CLEARED. REMAINDER WW MAY BE CANCELED INCREMENTALLY AS NEEDED...BEFORE SCHEDULED 2Z EXPIRATION. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW NEAR BJI WITH COLD FRONT WWD ACROSS CENTRAL ND. NONCONVERGENT NLY FLOW AND DRYING IS EVIDENT BEHIND FRONT...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AHEAD OF FRONT...TSTMS HAVE PRODUCED RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE OUTFLOW AIR ACROSS MOST OF NRN MN. ISOLATED STG-SVR TSTMS MAY CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS BECKER/OTTER TAIL COUNTIES...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR SWWD TOWARD SERN CORNER ND. REMAINING SVR GUST/HAIL POTENTIAL APPEARS MRGL ATTM. EXPECT PREFRONTAL AIR MASS TO STABILIZE WITH DIABATIC SFC COOLING OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46439807 46969668 48309513 48019452 46539473 45619594 45889695 46049780 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 28 13:50:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Jun 2006 09:50:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 281351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281351 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-281615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0851 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI...NWRN OH...NRN/CNTRL IND AND ERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281351Z - 281615Z TSTMS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. H5 CHART SHOWS THE SEASONABLY COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 20 DEG C AT GRB. THIS COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD SPREAD EWD ATOP THE RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS/MIDWEST REGION THROUGH THE AFTN. 12Z DTX/ILX/GRB SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AS SFC TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 DEG F...SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS WILL BE THE WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE OVERALL WNWLY FLOW REGIME. BUT...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT CURLING FROM NERN WI ACROSS WRN LWR MI SWWD INTO CNTRL IL THAT SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE DAY. TSTMS SHOULD MAINLY FORM INTO CLUSTERS OR SHORT BANDS AND PULSE TO SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTN WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR AS COLD POOL ORGANIZATION ALIGNS WITH THE MEAN WNWLY FLOW. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTN FROM PARTS OF LWR MI/WRN PARTS OF SWRN ONT SWWD INTO PARTS OF IND/NWRN OH. ..RACY.. 06/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 39968892 42058720 43858751 44878672 45548431 44698135 43208070 39638488 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 28 17:00:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Jun 2006 13:00:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 281702 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281701 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-281900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1365 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA...WRN NY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 281701Z - 281900Z ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ERN OH INTO PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS STEEPENED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY WHERE VALUES ARE NOW APPROACHING 8C/KM TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE. THIS IS EVIDENT BY RAPID EXPANSION OF CU FIELD AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN OH. DEEP SWLY FLOW WILL LIMIT LAKE BREEZE MOVEMENT INLAND AND STRONG CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NWRN PA INTO WRN NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE LONGER LIVED ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 06/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE... 39788208 41808039 42947730 42087698 39358072 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 03:43:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 05 Jun 2006 23:43:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060342 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-060515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1079 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 PM CDT MON JUN 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439... VALID 060342Z - 060515Z ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING INTO CENTRAL KS... MCS HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATURE OVER NRN KS THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. STRONGEST CONVECTION...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES...IS OVER MITCHELL COUNTY KS...MOVING SWD AT ROUGHLY 25KT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LLJ CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM CNTRL OK...40KT...INTO SCNTRL KS. THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE THAT AN EXPANDING MCS MAY EVOLVE OVER CNTRL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. ..DARROW.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU... 40589712 37659556 37770104 40500272 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 04:14:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 00:14:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060413 OKZ000-KSZ000-060545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 PM CDT MON JUN 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL KS...NERN OK CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 060413Z - 060545Z ...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NCNTRL OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AIDED BY A STRONG LLJ FOCUSED FROM CNTRL OK INTO SCNTRL KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SUGGEST ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND CAPPING INVERSION ARE INCREASING WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 14C. MOIST CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY BE ROOTED ABOVE THE CAP INGESTING LOWER THETA-E PARCELS THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE NOTED IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY CAN AGITATE THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR MORE BUOYANT PARCELS TO ASCEND TO THEIR LFC. FARTHER NORTH...SEWD MOVING CONVECTION MAY INTERACT WITH THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING ENHANCING THE PROSPECT FOR DEEPER...POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37579892 37569655 35559483 34589621 35279778 36709907 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 08:58:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 04:58:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060857 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060857 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-061030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 AM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN KS...ERN OK...FAR WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440... VALID 060857Z - 061030Z AN MCS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SERN KS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SSEWD LATE TONIGHT INTO ERN OK. A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH 12Z. THE AREA DOWNSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN AND CNTRL KS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AN MCS ONGOING IN SERN KS. THE MCS IS TRACKING SSEWD DOWN AN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ORIENTED FROM SE KS INTO ERN OK AS SUGGESTED BY RUC ANALYSIS. THE ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY LIFT FROM THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE LOW-LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH 30 KT OF NW FLOW AT MID-LEVELS IS CREATING A SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM SUGGEST THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN... 35149679 34569600 34319523 34709423 35679393 36649463 37169546 37159635 36639710 35849714 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 16:20:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 12:20:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 061619 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061619 OKZ000-TXZ000-061815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1082 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL OK AND EXTREME NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061619Z - 061815Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY FROM E CNTRL THROUGH SERN OK BY 18-19Z. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LATE THIS MORNING A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A DYING CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING SWD THROUGH OKFUSKEE CO AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SWD MOVING MCV. A 30 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET IN CNTRL OK WILL VEER AND WEAKEN WITH TIME. HOWEVER...12Z RAOB FROM NORMAN SUGGESTS THE CAP MAY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR NEW STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX ALONG THE SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THE UPPER 80S. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NWLY 35 KT AT 6 KM WILL MAINTAIN VERTICAL SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE INCLUDING FORWARD PROPAGATING MULTICELLS AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. ..DIAL.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 35199624 35229533 34939491 33879484 33639627 35129717 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 19:07:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 15:07:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 061907 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061906 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-062100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK THROUGH NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061906Z - 062100Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20-21Z OVER SERN OK AND SPREAD SEWD INTO NERN TX. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THIS AFTERNOON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST S OF MCALESTER OK IS MOVING SEWD. DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING S OF THIS BOUNDARY. FULL SUN AND UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. AN MCV CONTINUES MOVING SEWD THROUGH ERN OK WITH A 40 KT NWLY MID LEVEL JET LOCATED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING TO NEAR 90 OVER SERN OK AND NERN TX AND SUGGEST THE CAP IS BECOMING WEAK ENOUGH FOR STORM TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD MOVING MCV AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED. HOWEVER...LIGHT SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING TO NWLY AND INCREASING TO 40 KT AT 500 MB WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO. ..DIAL.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34279542 34319453 33509435 32859430 32709536 33449600 34249627 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 19:35:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 15:35:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 061934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061934 IAZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-062130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1084 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND SRN IA THROUGH NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061934Z - 062130Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER ERN IA AND EXPAND SWWD WITH TIME INTO SRN IA AND PARTS OF NRN MO. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER ERN IA ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. OTHER STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER SERN IA ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL IL NWWD INTO SERN IA. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN A NARROW AXIS NEAR AND S OF THESE BOUNDARIES AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF CUMULUS EXTENDING ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM ERN IA SWWD INTO SWRN IA AND NWRN MO. THE CAP HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE FRONT. WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NWLY AT 35 TO 40 KT AT 6 KM WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SOME UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP MID LEVEL ROTATION. THIS ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX... 39929495 40589389 42129199 42549123 41889065 40639105 40359244 40019332 39299465 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 20:40:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 16:40:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 062039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062039 AZZ000-062245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062039Z - 062245Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING MICROBURSTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL AZ REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON. STORMS HAVE RECENT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST AZ AS OF 2030Z. A FURTHER INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH STORMS LIKELY TO SPREAD WEST-NORTHWEST ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR AND I-10/I-19 CORRIDOR. AMBIENT AIRMASS IS RATHER MOIST IN MID LEVELS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.0 INCH. BETWEEN ROCKIES RIDGE/BAJA LOW...A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW -- 25-35 KTS PER 12Z TUCSON RAOB AND TUCSON/PHOENIX WSR-88D VWPS -- WILL FAVOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST SPREAD OF EVOLVING CLUSTERS ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. SOME HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... 33661254 33551103 32880960 31590955 31401062 31751199 32371298 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 21:05:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 17:05:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 062104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062104 NMZ000-COZ000-062300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1086 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 062104Z - 062300Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS -- IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL -- WILL EXIST ACROSS EASTERN CO AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...STRONG HEATING/LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN CO AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 15-25 KTS. SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN NEAR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PULSE-TYPE LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS. WEAK FLOW REGIME AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 40230499 39680430 37900372 36400376 35480453 35330513 35570628 36090634 36970594 38950576 39990535 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 23:25:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 19:25:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 062324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062324 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-070030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1087 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442... VALID 062324Z - 070030Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NERN TX TOWARD NWRN LA... WELL DEFINED MVC IS DROPPING SWD ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER WITHIN REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. THIS FEATURE REMAINS INFLUENTIAL IN ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTION OVER NERN TX AS MODEST NWLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM CNTRL OK TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER WITH NEAR 40KT OBSERVED AT 6KM AT PAT PROFILER. IN ADDITION...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AIDING THIS ACTIVITY AS LATEST SFC DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM CNTRL LA NWWD INTO SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WEST OF TXK. LATEST THINKING IS THIS DEVELOPING MCS WILL CONTINUE DRIVING SWD AT 30KT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING FORWARD PROPAGATION DURING THE EVENING AS COLD POOL EVOLVES. DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. ..DARROW.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 31959491 34549576 34529331 31739241 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 23:49:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 19:49:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 062348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062348 AZZ000-070115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443... VALID 062348Z - 070115Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z FOR SOUTHERN AZ...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL. ORGANIZED MCS/HABOOB WITH HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL IN THE TUCSON/MARANA AREAS CONTINUES TO SPREAD WEST-NORTHWEST ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. WELL ORGANIZED COLD POOL AND EAST-SOUTHEAST STEERING WINDS OF 25-35 KTS PER TUCSON WSR-88D VWP SUGGESTS A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST PROPAGATION ACROSS THE DESERT FLOOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE CASA GRANDE VICINITY AFTER 0000Z...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX METRO BY AROUND 0130Z. OTHER STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST AZ MAY ALSO MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 33491320 33741251 33831138 33671024 32630948 31560915 31430984 31451101 31871253 32321319 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 7 00:53:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 20:53:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 070052 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070052 AZZ000-070215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443... VALID 070052Z - 070215Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z FOR SOUTHERN AZ...WITH CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED HAIL POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE/EXTENSION INTO SOUTHWEST AZ. AT 0045Z...MCS/HABOOB WITH HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS/BLINDING DUST CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PINAL COUNTY INTO SOUTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY. THIS COMPLEX APPEARS LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. GUSTS OF 46 KTS WERE RECENTLY MEASURED AT CASA GRANDA AT 0015Z. FARTHER EAST...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF TUCSON. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED TO A DEGREE PER EARLIER CONVECTION...THESE STORMS COULD POSE A SIMILAR DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THEY MOVE ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN 30-35 KTS OF STEERING FLOW PER TUCSON/S WSR-88D VWP. AMBIENT AIRMASS REMAINS DEEPLY MIXED OUTSIDE OF EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...WITH DCAPE OF 12OO J/KG PER 21Z PHOENIX RAOB/00Z TUCSON RAOBS...FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..GUYER.. 06/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 34181398 34011250 33831138 33671024 32630948 31560915 31430984 31451101 31871253 32471396 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 7 01:37:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 21:37:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 070136 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070136 MOZ000-070230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1090 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0836 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444... VALID 070136Z - 070230Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER WEST CENTRAL MO... RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT PROPAGATES SWWD ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS OF WATCH. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING FROM ERN KS INTO NRN MO IN THE WAKE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND VEERING DEEP LAYER FLOW. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY LINGER AHEAD OF TROUGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IT APPEARS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX... 39389300 38869265 38539354 38859421 39219400 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 7 02:07:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 22:07:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 070206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070205 WIZ000-070300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1091 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0905 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 445... VALID 070205Z - 070300Z ...TORNADIC THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE... UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS WI TOWARD LOWER MI...PER RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION ON LEE SIDE OF LAKE MI. STRONGEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST OF THE LAKE AND IS GRADUALLY DECREASING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RADAR DATA SUPPORTS THESE TRENDS WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS BECOMING LESS IDENTIFIABLE. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE GREATEST RISK WITH REMAINING ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX... 42628970 43358904 43998943 44408827 43698747 42858798 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 7 04:36:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 07 Jun 2006 00:36:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 070435 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070435 LAZ000-TXZ000-070530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LA...SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446... VALID 070435Z - 070530Z ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL LA INTO SERN TX... LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUES ITS SWD MOVEMENT ACROSS NWRN LA INTO ECNTRL TX WITH LEADING EDGE OF MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY PROPAGATING SWD AT ROUGHLY 30KT. CURRENT SPEED/MOVEMENT PLACES STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SRN PORTION OF THE WATCH AT ROUGHLY 07Z. WITH EXPIRATION CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR 05Z IT APPEARS AN EXTENSION FOR A FEW HOURS MAY BE NECESSARY. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG LEADING GUST FRONT. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 32259473 32289242 30329130 30129363 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 16:52:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 12:52:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091651 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-091845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1113 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...NJ...NRN MD...NRN DEL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091651Z - 091845Z THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PA AND GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NRN MD...NRN DEL AND NJ NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW. A MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVER CNTRL PA WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND -16 C AT 500 MB WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES AS AN UPPER JET SHIFTS SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO WRN PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD. STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE SEWD ADVANCING MID LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN W OF THE THERMAL TROUGH...SUGGESTING STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR IN CHARACTER. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT FOR HAIL. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 41207565 40437437 39567448 39497552 39737738 41067821 41847738 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 18:02:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 14:02:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091800 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091800 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-092000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1114 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN ID...FAR WRN WY AND SWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091800Z - 092000Z CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAINS AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SNAKE RIVER RANGE...AND OVER FAR SCENTRAL ID. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSES WILL SUPP0RT THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WHILE MOVING NEWD EVENTUALLY INTO FAR WRN WY/SWRN MT. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NERN NV WILL PROGRESS NEWD INTO SERN ID/WRN WY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEEP CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT WERE RECEIVING AMPLE SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...MAINLY THE LOWER-UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SNAKE RIVER RANGE IN FAR ERN ID. STORMS HAVE ALSO SHOWN SOME INTENSIFICATION RECENTLY OVER SCENTRAL ID JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. 12Z BOI SOUNDING INDICATED RELATIVELY DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH WELL MIXED DWPTS IN THE LOWER 50S. RESULTANT MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG...COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. LOCAL HAIL MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES AROUND 1 INCH HAIL POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FOR A WEAK/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AS REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN STRONG FLOW OVER SRN GREAT BASIN AND ERN ORE...SUFFICIENT FOCUS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI... 45761168 44541318 43221465 42471457 42041375 42151196 42761094 43151060 44511033 45331011 45791051 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 18:46:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 14:46:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091845 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091844 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-092045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1115 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL AND NERN WY...SWRN SD...NWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091844Z - 092045Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NERN WY THROUGH SWRN SD INTO NWRN NEB. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN WY SEWD THROUGH NWRN NEB THEN EWD TO A SURFACE LOW IN NERN NEB. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY SWD. A RESERVOIR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S RESIDES OVER THE DAKOTAS. NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AS FAR W AS NERN WY...WHILE S OF THIS BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE 40S. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD THROUGH WY ALONG NWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE BLACK HILLS REGION OF WRN SD. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND IN UPSLOPE REGIME OF NERN WY AND SPREAD ESEWD. NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SWLY 30 KT AT 500 MB WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...RIW... 41900086 41550158 42140365 43530614 44280634 44590539 44030350 43280247 42530092 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 19:19:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 15:19:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091917 UTZ000-NVZ000-092115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1116 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NV...WRN/NRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091917Z - 092115Z A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 20Z. ISOLATED SVR STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN NV SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND GROW IN COVERAGE WHILE MOVING INTO WRN UT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. ADDITIONAL STRONG-SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER ECENTRAL NV/WCENTRAL UT ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRY EXTENDING FROM NEAR EKO SEWD TO MILLARD COUNTY UT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /DUE TO PRESENCE OF 30-40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW/ SHOULD SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN... 40751291 41981456 41571616 40011605 38601526 38051443 37991332 38211147 38551079 40001085 40791182 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 19:28:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 15:28:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091927 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091927 NMZ000-COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-092200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1117 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...WRN CO AND NWRN/NCENTRAL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091927Z - 092200Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NCENTRAL NM NWD INTO ERN UT/WRN CO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE AREA. MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN NV/WRN UT. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST /MLCAPES UP FROM 750-1000 J/KG/ AS REMNANT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN A TRANSITION OUT OF MONSOONAL TYPE PATTERN. COMBINATION OF MODERATE FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL SVR THREAT. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DCAPE /1100 J/KG / WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL SHEAR. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...FGZ...SLC... 38240598 39610685 40340800 40180980 39271081 38491105 37770996 37070942 35870862 35320779 35290685 35390601 36480533 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 20:44:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 16:44:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092042 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA AND EXTREME SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092042Z - 092245Z POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 23Z FROM NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN MN. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY 23Z OR ONCE IT APPEARS INITIATION IS IMMINENT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NERN NEB WWD THROUGH NWRN NEB WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH E CNTRL NEB. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ENEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SERN SD THEN SEWD THROUGH WRN IA. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG E OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NERN NB/SERN SD INTO NWRN IA. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE HEATING AND STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME IN VICINITY OF LEE TROUGH IN E CNTRL NEB AND SPREAD EWD. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY AT 35 KT AT 500 MB IS RESULTING FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN NEAR AND E OF TRIPLE POINT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY HIGH STORM BASES SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41669718 42429769 43189813 43769797 43829642 43339503 42669446 41989505 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 20:47:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 16:47:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092046 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN ID AND SWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453... VALID 092046Z - 092245Z MARGINAL SVR HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS OVER THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER NRN NV...LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE AREA. AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS HAS BECOME STABILIZED FROM PREVIOUS TSTM CLUSTER AND WILL LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT. THUS THIS AREA SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM WW 453 SHORTLY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NRN UT HAS MERGED WITH OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THIS SW-NE ORIENTATION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT CELL TRAINING AND FOCUSED MARGINAL SVR THREAT AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ENEWD INTO SWRN MT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI... 44421319 43961377 42991503 42601540 42161524 42101227 42191118 44181096 45211064 45481124 44691271 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 20:47:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 16:47:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092042 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA AND EXTREME SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092042Z - 092245Z POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 23Z FROM NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN MN. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY 23Z OR ONCE IT APPEARS INITIATION IS IMMINENT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NERN NEB WWD THROUGH NWRN NEB WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH E CNTRL NEB. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ENEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SERN SD THEN SEWD THROUGH WRN IA. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG E OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NERN NB/SERN SD INTO NWRN IA. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE HEATING AND STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME IN VICINITY OF LEE TROUGH IN E CNTRL NEB AND SPREAD EWD. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY AT 35 KT AT 500 MB IS RESULTING FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN NEAR AND E OF TRIPLE POINT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY HIGH STORM BASES SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41669718 42429769 43189813 43769797 43829642 43339503 42669446 41989505  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 20:48:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 16:48:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092046 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN ID AND SWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453... VALID 092046Z - 092245Z MARGINAL SVR HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS OVER THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER NRN NV...LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE AREA. AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS HAS BECOME STABILIZED FROM PREVIOUS TSTM CLUSTER AND WILL LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT. THUS THIS AREA SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM WW 453 SHORTLY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NRN UT HAS MERGED WITH OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THIS SW-NE ORIENTATION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT CELL TRAINING AND FOCUSED MARGINAL SVR THREAT AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ENEWD INTO SWRN MT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI... 44421319 43961377 42991503 42601540 42161524 42101227 42191118 44181096 45211064 45481124 44691271  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 22:12:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 18:12:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092211 UTZ000-NVZ000-100015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1120 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NV...WRN/NRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 455... VALID 092211Z - 100015Z ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER THE UT/NV BORDER WILL MOVE EWD AROUND 30 KTS INTO THE SLC METRO AREA BETWEEN 00-01Z. MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE SLC AREA/WASATCH FRONT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERITY OF THE WIND THREAT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WW. CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NERN NV AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO NWRN/NRN UT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. SFC AIRMASS HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY EARLIER CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NRN UT. RECENT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES WHICH MAY AID TO SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION OVER THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WHITE PINE COUNTY NV EWD INTO JUAB AND MILLARD COUNTIES UT. MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW /30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/ ALONG WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY /1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE/ WILL SUPPORT A SVR THREAT IN SRN/SERN PORTIONS OF WW 455 FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS WITH THESE STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN... 41951584 38581568 38661133 39961104 41201106 41951126 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 23:13:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 19:13:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092312 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092312 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-100045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1121 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...SWRN SD...NWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 454... VALID 092312Z - 100045Z NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS HAVE INITIATED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST FROM NERN NEB SFC LOW...ACROSS NWRN NEB...AND INTO NERN WY. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE AND HIGH WINDS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SEVERE THREAT MAY BEGIN TO LESSEN LATER THIS EVENING AS EMPHASIS FOR STRONGER FORCING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST OVER PARTS OF NERN NEB AND SERN SD WHERE WATCH 456 HAS RECENTLY BEEN ISSUED. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... 44010230 43039995 41970001 41920111 43040591 44310484 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 00:35:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 20:35:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 100034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100033 COZ000-UTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-100230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1122 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0733 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN ID...ERN NV...NRN AND CENTRAL UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453...455... VALID 100033Z - 100230Z THREAT FOR SVR IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY OVER BOTH WW/S 453 AND 455 AND BOTH WW/S MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WAS BEGINNING TO SURGE AHEAD OF ONGOING TSTMS OVER SERN ID. THEREFORE THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE REMAINDER OF WW 453 IN SERN ID. A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINS BEHIND WW 453 IN SWRN ID AND FAR NCENTRAL/NERN NV AS PER THE 00Z LKN SOUNDING. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF VORT MAX MOVING SEWD THROUGH ERN OR MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS REGION. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER WW 455...CONVECTIVE LINE HAS SURGED OUT OF THE WATCH ACROSS THE SLC AREA. FURTHER SW...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SRN FRINGE OF OUTFLOW REMAINS MODEST OVER WCENTRAL/CENTRAL UT. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE VORT MAX THAT IS DRIVING THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS FAR NRN UT. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE INSTABILITY AS NOTED ON THE 00Z GJT SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EAST OF WW 455 AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NERN UT AND POSSIBLY NWRN CO FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN... 40880821 40911106 42361103 43421120 42431330 42551449 42511618 42001655 41631639 41131515 40741273 40361245 39321247 39111159 38791016 38750852 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 01:59:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 21:59:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 100158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100158 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-100300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1123 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456... VALID 100158Z - 100300Z STORMS MOVING INTO NWRN IA APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING FROM LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STRONG INHIBITION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE/LIFT NEAR SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT...FROM NERN NEB...ACROSS WRN IA...AND INTO SWRN MN...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE WARM FRONT...SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS MOVING EAST FROM NCNTRL NEB MAY ALSO MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 456 SHORTLY. HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 43060070 41390058 41439380 42229382 42279397 42499400 43479400 43609402 43649488 43829489 43839834 43939834 43939931 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 17:15:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 13:15:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101714 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-101915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1124 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NERN CO AND WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101714Z - 101915Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER SERN WY INTO NERN CO THROUGH 19Z AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN NEB BY MID AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES ARE EXPECTED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB INTO EXTREME NERN CO. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS BY 18Z OR 19Z. A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NERN CO THROUGH WRN NEB AND INTO SWRN SD. W OF THIS BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE 40S...WHILE E OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG FROM SERN WY INTO PORTIONS OF NERN CO TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS WRN NEB AND EXTREME NERN CO. SATELLITE DATA SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN WY ACCOMPANIED BY ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES EWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY AND NERN CO AND SPREAD EWD. STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY FURTHER AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS TOWARD WRN NEB. STORMS W OF THE FRONT IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE HIGHER BASED. STORM BASES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER E OF THE FRONT OVER A PORTION OF WRN NEB AND EXTREME NERN CO WHERE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 39900424 42340540 42900362 41560237 39870231 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 18:21:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 14:21:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101820 VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-102015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1125 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/FAR SWRN IN...PORTIONS OF KY...NERN TN AND FAR SWRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101820Z - 102015Z ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL KY SEWD INTO FAR SWRN VA/NERN TN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER FAR SRN IL AND SWRN IND. SVR THREAT MAY BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH THAT A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 20Z. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR MWN TO OWB ESEWD TO 60 W OF LOZ TO TRI. AIRMASS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH AXIS OF MID-UPPER 60S DWPTS SUPPORTING MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. WITH MODERATE NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 25-30 KTS...AND WEAK ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION AND LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND POTENTIAL GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE SEWD PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY...AND THUS SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE FAIRLY CONFINED EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AXIS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...LSX... 38188695 38568862 38548955 38138969 37468874 36798675 36368517 35888349 35928261 36368214 36768229 37658501 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 18:45:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 14:45:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101844 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101844 NCZ000-SCZ000-102045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC AND PORTIONS OF WRN OF SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101844Z - 102045Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER ERN FOOTHILLS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT OF NC/SC THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SVR THREAT AND TSTM COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. DOWNSLOPE SUBSIDENT FLOW OFF THE SRN APPALACHIANS HAVE AS YET LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN NC/UPSTATE OF SC. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WILL SUPPORT WEAK FORCING OVER THE REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. EVIDENCE OF THIS FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE CAN BE SEEN BY INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN VA/NERN TN. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...AS MODEST DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT EXISTS /1200-1400 J/KG OF DCAPE/. IF NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER WRN NC/PIEDMONT OF SC IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...THEN CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NERN TN MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY POSE AN ORGANIZED DMGG WIND THREAT AT THAT TIME. ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP... 36408107 35978197 35728246 35408277 34818252 34708114 34927997 36297928 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 18:55:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 14:55:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101854 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-102100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1127 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD...NERN WY THROUGH SERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101854Z - 102100Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM SERN MT THROUGH NERN WY INTO SWRN SD. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN SD NWWD THROUGH NERN WY INTO SERN MT. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION IN NARROW CORRIDOR IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MITIGATED TO SOME EXTENT BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS COULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. SATELLITE DATA SHOWS A VORT MAX OVER NRN CO THAT WILL LIFT ENEWD THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER SERN MT THROUGH NERN WY NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER SRN WY INTO WRN NEB AS A MID LEVEL JET ADVANCES EWD THROUGH THAT AREA. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES FROM NERN WY INTO SERN MT. ..DIAL.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 44090550 45170678 45590660 45550553 44820408 43530336 43050459 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 19:55:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 15:55:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101953 KSZ000-OKZ000-102200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN...CENTRAL AND NRN OK...SCENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101953Z - 102200Z ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BASED TSTMS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH FROM WCENTRAL OK NEWD INTO SCENTRAL KS THROUGH 22Z. STORM MVMNT SHOULD BE EAST AROUND 10 KTS. THE OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL OK /BECKHAM COUNTY/ NEWD INTO SCENTRAL KS /RENO COUNTY/. CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXISTED DUE TO MID-HIGH LEVEL REMNANT MONSOON PLUME AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN KS/TX PANHANDLE. VERY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES /LOWER 100S/ EXISTED OVER WRN OK NWD INTO SCENTRAL KS. RECENT RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CINH REMAINING AND AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. MODEST LOW LEVEL WINDS /20-25 KTS/ EXISTED IN DEEPLY MIXED THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. COMBINED WITH DCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG...A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS WILL EXIST WITH ANY HIGH BASED TSTM ACTIVITY. ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 35939739 37809603 38139662 37779813 36359905 36029911 35429959 35259960 34869880 34959823 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 20:30:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 16:30:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 102029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102028 ILZ000-MOZ000-102230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1129 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL MO...SWRN/SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102028Z - 102230Z SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR COU ESEWD TO THE STL METRO AREA/SRN IL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AREA IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO. LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR COU ESEWD BISECTING THE STL METRO...THEN SEWD TO NEAR MT VERNON. RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING CINH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH /AS EVIDENT BY RECENT INCREASE IN LTG /ELEVATED ECHO TRENDS OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO/ SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE NEXT FEW HRS AND LEAD TO ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AN ADDITIONAL POSSIBILITY IS THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NCENTRAL/NWRN MO MAY MOVE SEWD ACROSS INTO ECENTRAL MO AND INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CU DEVELOPMENT SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT DMGG WIND GUSTS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX... 39309096 39519217 38649257 37708823 38648780 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 21:08:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 17:08:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 102107 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102107 MOZ000-KSZ000-102300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1130 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0407 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102107Z - 102300Z NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO ARE BEING MONITORED FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA ONCE STORM INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT. THIS AFTERNOON A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN MO NWWD THROUGH E CNTRL KS TO THE SW OF EMPORIA. FARTHER N...A ZONE OF MID LEVEL ELEVATED STORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR TOPEKA EWD THROUGH NRN MO. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THE CORRIDOR FROM NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO S OF THE ELEVATED STORMS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. A ZONE OF ASCENT EXISTS FROM NERN KS INTO NWRN MO WHERE IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING AND WHERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY THE ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS. A BAND OF 30 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS IN THIS AREA...SUPPORTING 0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35 KT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL APPEARS CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS...AND IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TOWARD EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38869304 38209474 38239700 38879726 39229648 39289521 39489352 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 21:43:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 17:43:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 102141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102141 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-102345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1131 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0441 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...SWRN NEB...FAR ECENTRAL CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...458... VALID 102141Z - 102345Z THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AND ECENTRAL CO AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS OVER FAR WRN NEB/NERN CO MOVE ESEWD OUT WW/S 457 AND 458. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY BEFORE 23Z OVER THE AREA. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER FAR WRN NEB...WITH MORE ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION OVER NERN CO SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE LARGE MCS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...CELL/LINE MERGERS AND STRONG MID LEVEL WLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT OUTFLOW DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE THIS EVENING. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE INTO NWRN KS. THUS THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND ORGANIZED SVR THREAT SHOULD TRACK ALONG THIS AXIS INTO SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AND FAR ECENTRAL CO THIS EVENING. ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 41439911 40750248 38540250 38769893 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 00:25:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 20:25:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 110024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110024 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-110230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1132 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ECENTRAL/SERN KS...CENTRAL MO AND SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459... VALID 110024Z - 110230Z CONTINUE MOST OF WW 459 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER WRN MO/ERN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. COMBINED WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA /MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG/ AND MINIMAL CINH...HIGH BASED TSTMS OVER SERN KS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING INTO WW 459 DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON SLOWLY SWD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS WCENTRAL/CENTRAL MO SHOULD SUPPORT CELL BACKBUILDING INTO WCENTRAL MO. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST AS CELL MOTIONS WILL REMAIN NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. FURTHER EAST...A CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS WITH DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW 459 WILL MOVE EWD AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS THE STL METRO AREA FROM 0030Z TO 02Z. LEAD CELL THAT HAS EXHIBITED BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOW ECHO CHARACTERISTICS SHOULD RIGHT MOVE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN STL METRO AREA WHERE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS. LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM THROUGH 02Z. THE SVR THREAT MAY LAST LONG ENOUGH THAT A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 459 ACROSS SERN IL/SWRN IND AND FAR WRN KY BEFORE 03Z WHERE AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE. AFOREMENTIONED STG-SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF STL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CELL TRAINING/HVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOPING OVER THE ECENTRAL MO/SWRN IL LATER THIS EVENING. ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 39299078 38769491 37759501 37399506 37848992 37008803 38258646 39548880 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 00:42:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 20:42:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 110041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110041 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-110215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CENTRAL AND NERN CO/SWRN NEB/NWRN AND INTO N CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...460... VALID 110041Z - 110215Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE SPREADING SEWD OUT OF ERN CO AND SWRN NEB INTO/ACROSS PARTS OF WW 460. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS WW 457...WITH SUPERCELL NOW OVER SRN YUMA/NRN KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN ERN CO NOW WITHIN THE CONFINES OF WW 460. STORMS ARE ALSO ENTERING WW 460 FROM THE NW...WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SWRN NEB. AIRMASS AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WHILE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EWD INTO THIS AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 460. WITH TIME...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXPAND EWD INTO FAR S CENTRAL NEB AND N CENTRAL KS...AS STORMS MOVE E OF WW 460 -- AND PERHAPS WITH SEPARATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. ..GOSS.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU... 40580216 40660134 40640077 40489984 40169885 39769806 38669807 38399856 38470081 38740248 39500280 40370272 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 03:43:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 23:43:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 110342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110342 ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-110545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL MO INTO ERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459... VALID 110342Z - 110545Z ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER FAR NWRN AREAS OF WW 459...AND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALSO...MCS OVER NWRN KS WILL CONTINUE SEWD AND WILL BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE WW INTO NERN KS. SEVERE STORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER FAR NERN KS/NWRN MO ALONG ZONE OF DEEP CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION IS MARGINAL. STILL...LIFT WILL PERSIST ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WITH LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND LIKELY WITH STRONGER CELLS. LATER TONIGHT...MCS NOW ENTERING N CENTRAL KS...OR AT LEAST OUTFLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FURTHER AND MAY PROVIDE FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL AND/OR INCREASED STORM COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PORTIONS OF NERN KS FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND POSSIBLE WW LATER TONIGHT. ..JEWELL.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38989499 38889140 38868902 38078897 37289513 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 04:07:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 00:07:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 110406 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110405 KSZ000-NEZ000-110530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1135 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND N CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460... VALID 110405Z - 110530Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS NWRN KS. THOUGH A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...NEW WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM E OF WW 460. LATEST RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT THE TWO MOST ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS -- ONE OVER ERN NORTON/WRN PHILLIPS COUNTY KS AND THE OTHER OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY KS -- HAVE WEAKENED RECENTLY. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO PERSIST...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED INTO N CENTRAL KS...WITH LOW-LEVEL JET NOW BECOMING WELL-ESTABLISHED WELL E -- ACROSS NERN KS. THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30 TO 40 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LIMITED/LOCAL SEVERE THREAT...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT NEW WW WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. ..GOSS.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 39720093 40150026 40179943 39789852 39039811 38379896 38389984 38870057 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 08:16:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 04:16:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 110814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110814 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-110945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1136 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS AND NRN/CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462... VALID 110814Z - 110945Z COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE MCS ACROSS NRN MO AND SERN NEB ARE STRENGTHENING EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD THROUGH ERN KS WHILE ANOTHER IS SETTLING SWD INTO CNTRL MO. H9-H85 JET OF 40-50 KTS BLOWING PERPENDICULAR TO THE EVOLVING COLD POOLS WAS SUPPORTING A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTMS VCNTY KMCI EWD TO WEST OF KSTL. THESE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME THE DOMINATE STORMS AND AS THE LLJ VEERS...AREAS FROM CNTRL INTO ERN MO ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE THE MOST STORMS. MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BUT...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. ..RACY.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP... 39739665 40439629 40479424 40109278 38689069 37959058 37909226 38149560 38869695 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 16:40:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 12:40:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 111639 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111638 KYZ000-TNZ000-111845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN THROUGH N CNTRL TN THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111638Z - 111845Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH NWRN AND NCNTRL TN INTO WRN AND CNTRL KY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SRN KY. FARTHER SW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN EWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN IL SWWD THROUGH SERN MO AND NERN AR. WARM SECTOR S AND E OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS DESTABILIZING WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. AN MCV OVER S CNTRL IL WILL CONTINUE ESEWD THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS KY. OTHER STORMS MAY INTENSIFY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE MODEST WITH WLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 KT. A BELT OF STRONGER FLOW EXISTS OVER CNTRL KY NEAR AND N OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT. DOMINANT STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE MULTICELLULAR AND SOME STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY DEVELOP EWD. ..DIAL.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... 37618458 37198406 36658415 36238486 35858643 35548781 35438949 36748886 37658713 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 17:09:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 13:09:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 111708 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111707 NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-111900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1138 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA...EXTREME NERN TN...NWRN THROUGH E CNTRL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111707Z - 111900Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 18Z OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN VA...NERN TN AND NWRN NC. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD SEWD THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL NC. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN NC NWWD THROUGH SWRN VA. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION BY 18Z-19Z. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SEWD IN VICINITY OF FRONT AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS LOCATED ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A BELT OF STRONGER 40 TO 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. ..DIAL.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...MRX... 35897689 35167691 34647806 34837892 35578010 36618266 37318099 36407823 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 18:52:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 14:52:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 111851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111851 OKZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-112115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1139 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE...ERN CO AND FAR NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111851Z - 112115Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM FAR NERN NM NWD INTO SERN WY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS OF NERN CO/SERN WY BY 21Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 20Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF SERN WY SWD INTO NERN NM. DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CINH REMAINING OVER THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE...AND AS A RESULT CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP EWD FROM THE ERN SLOPES INTO THE FRONT RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 40+ T/TD SPREADS....MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG / INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINAL SVR WIND GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE. STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WERE EVIDENT PER SFC AND REGIONAL PROFILER DATA OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF FAR NRN CO/SERN WY. CONSEQUENT GREATER VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS REGION AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT GREATER UPDRAFT ROTATION POTENTIAL AND INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. FURTHER EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE...SEVERAL MORE HRS OF HEATING WILL BE NECESSARY FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ERN CO AND SERN WY AS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MLCINH REMAINS AT 18Z. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR OTHER SVR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE WILL BE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/LEE TROUGH EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF AKO WNWWD TO A MESOLOW OVER SRN WELD COUNTY IN NERN CO AND ALONG A LEE TROUGH ORIENTED E-W NORTH OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE OVER SERN WY/FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE. ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 41350265 42480306 42300529 40620572 39950562 38240545 37080521 36440488 36610299 38490276 39560274 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 20:00:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 16:00:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 111958 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111958 OKZ000-TXZ000-112230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1140 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/NWRN TX...SERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111958Z - 112230Z ISOLATED SVR WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING TSTMS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS/LOW ROLLING PLAINS REGION. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SERN TX PANHANDLE/FAR WCENTRAL OK IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED AND MARGINAL...SO A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION OF WRN TX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED SFC TROUGH AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NM WAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED AND MODEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND SFC CONVERGENCE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP NEWD TOWARDS A SFC LOW CENTER OVER THE SERN TX PANHANDLE/FAR SWRN OK. LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER T/TD SPREADS SUPPORTING INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS...HIGH DCAPE VALUES /1500-2000 J/KG/ AND MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG...SUGGEST THAT DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. OVERALL WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE AND LIMITED DURATION FOR ANY SINGLE CELL LIFESPAN. ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF... 35370050 34340116 33610299 33120298 32400253 32080226 32370123 34289974 35179950 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 21:48:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 17:48:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 112147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112147 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-120015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1141 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...FAR NERN NM... OK PANHANDLE/FAR NWRN OK AND SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112147Z - 120015Z ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO WILL LIKELY TRACK SLOWLY EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF SERN CO/NERN NM IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SWRN KS/SERN CO. THE OVERALL SVR THREAT ACROSS THE AREA APPEARS MARGINAL...AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WAS SUPPORTING BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND RATON RIDGE AREA. DESPITE MARGINAL MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER THE AREA...15 KTS AT 500 MB...THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS SUPPORTING AROUND 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SUFFICIENT UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/. ADDITIONAL SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER NERN NM...AND NORTH OF THIS STORM IN THE PUB AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH CONTINUED MODERATE UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR A DEEPLY MIXED BNDRY LAYER SHOULD FAVOR MARGINALLY SVR WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT. FURTHER EAST...AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WW 464 SEWD INTO SWRN KS /JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO OK/ AS FOCUSED SFC CONVERGENCE COMBINES WITH ASCENT FROM UPPER WAVE MOVING OUT OF NM AND WEAKENING CINH. THE OVERALL INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS IN THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT ORGANIZED SVR THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 39020210 38880462 38040465 36900445 36270434 36350317 36460208 36560087 36879938 37299920 37470144 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 22:40:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 18:40:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 112239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112239 SDZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-120045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1142 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0539 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE...SWRN SD...AND NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 464... VALID 112239Z - 120045Z CONTINUE ALL OF WW 464. CONVECTION WAS INTENSIFYING OVER THE ERN WY/CO FRONT RANGE...AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN POSING A SEVERE THREAT IN THE NEXT HR OR SO. TSTMS WERE INTENSIFYING OVER THE DEN AREA NWD TO NEAR CYS...AND ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO POSE A SVR THREAT IN THE NEXT HR OR SO AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH WWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 20 W KIMBALL NEB TO 20 W OF AKRON COLO. PRIND ARE THAT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS...DUE TO 30-35 DEG F T/TD SPREADS...WILL PRECLUDE MORE THAN A VERY ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT. ANY BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH CONVECTION THAT MOVES ALONG OR CROSSES THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY WILL BE ENHANCED. ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE A FEW COUNTIES NORTH OF WW 464 AS LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION INTO ECENTRAL WY/SWRN SD...BUT OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT ANOTHER WW IS NOT EXPECTED. ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 42990315 44210359 43810542 42840513 39090396 39100217 41830281 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 23:02:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 19:02:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 112301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112301 OKZ000-120100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1143 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0601 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112301Z - 120100Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ACROSS NRN OK BY 00Z. OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DISORGANIZED THAT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR GAG EWD TO NEAR SWO. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 100S ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE WEAKENED THE CINH SUFFICIENTLY THAT WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE /INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS/ AND APPROACHING UPPER JET...SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY 00Z. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL...BUT INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS /1500-2000 J/KG OF DCAPE/ ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 36359652 36519841 36549948 36279995 36069995 35799980 35639923 35749645 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 23:17:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 19:17:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 112315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112314 NCZ000-SCZ000-120045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1144 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463... VALID 112314Z - 120045Z CONTINUE WW. ADDITIONAL WWS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT THROUGH 01-02Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL BELOW 90F AHEAD OF OUTFLOW...AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS UNTIL ACTIVITY PROGRESSES INTO COOLER MARINE LAYER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS EVENING. BETTER HAIL POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ON NOSE OF STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WARMING...WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF FAYETTEVILLE NC...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT COOLS FROM THE MID 90S...LARGE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STABILIZE BY 01-02Z. ..KERR.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 36498001 36377917 36047804 35667775 35207774 34457910 34447965 34548027 34598092 34798129 35328089 35828059 36188045 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 23:57:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 19:57:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 112355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112355 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-120230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN ID AND NWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112355Z - 120230Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD AROUND 25 KTS ACROSS SRN/SERN ID...EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN WY BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. SVR STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE WRN EDGE OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS THAT EXTENDS DOWN THE MAGIC/SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN ID. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS /40-45 KTS/ ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG/ SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SVR THREAT WITH THE ONGOING TSTMS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO NWRN WY. RELATIVELY MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SVR WIND/HAIL AND THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...PIH...BOI... 43710873 44720926 44621129 42931475 42081444 42681097 42960996 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 00:13:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 20:13:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120012 KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-120145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1146 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...KY...TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465... VALID 120012Z - 120145Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. ADDITIONAL WWS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE BEING MONITORED. CLUSTER OF STORMS...PERHAPS SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG SEASONABLY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH 02-03Z. RELATIVELY MODERATE SURFACE HEATING ON WARM SIDE OF BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION BENEATH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. AND...AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STABILIZE NEXT FEW HOURS...VIGOR OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. UNTIL THEN...HOWEVER...BELT OF BROADLY CYCLONIC 30+ KT MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE STORM MOTIONS FOR CONTINUING MARGINAL SEVERE WIND THREAT...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO STABILIZE ON NOSE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. MIXED LAYER CAPE TO 2000 J/KG COULD STILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL...AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED...STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/WEST OF NASHVILLE BY 02Z. ..KERR.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... 37658396 37188262 36248418 35748660 35758769 36208860 36928787 37078627 37458465 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 06:05:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 02:05:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120604 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120603 KSZ000-OKZ000-120730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL KS AND EXTREME NCNTRL OK CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 120603Z - 120730Z TSTMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SCNTRL KS AND PERHAPS EXTREME NCNTRL OK THROUGH 09Z. ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RNFL WILL BE LIKELY...BUT A CONVECTIVE WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV ROTATING EWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND WILL BE ENHANCING THE LLJ THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A WEAK H85 JET WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE SLY THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. NOSE OF THIS JET WILL BE IMPINGING ON AN E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOIST CONVECTION N OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER OF AROUND 35 KTS AND MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG SUGGEST THAT INITIAL STORMS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY ORGANIZED WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. BUT...AS MORE STORMS FORM...ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT ESEWD INTO EXTREME NCNTRL/NERN OK AND SERN KS THROUGH 12Z...WHILE STRONGER STORMS FAVOR THE WRN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BANDS ACROSS SCNTRL KS. ..RACY.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38369803 37839651 37429603 36949594 36699683 37169897 38039953 38459899 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 09:40:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 05:40:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120939 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120938 FLZ000-121115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1149 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0438 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL FL COAST CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120938Z - 121115Z ISOLD WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHORE FROM NEAR FORT MYERS NWD TO TAMPA BAY AREA. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. CONVERGENCE BAND HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED JUST OFF THE WCOAST THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY AUGMENTED BY A WEAK LAND BREEZE. SATL AND TAMPA RADAR SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN TSTMS ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE BAND. TPA VWP EXHIBITS ABOUT 30 KTS OF SFC-1KM SHEAR FOR A STORM MOTION 200/14 KTS. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF TSTMS OFFSHORE HAVE SHOWN LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM FORT MEYERS NWD TO TAMPA BAY...WITH EVEN HIGHER WATERSPOUT RISKS. THE TORNADO THREAT PROBABLY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST THROUGH MID-MORNING AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..RACY.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW... 28048324 28308272 27618186 26388176 26018188 26278242 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 12:47:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 08:47:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121245 FLZ000-121415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1150 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121245Z - 121415Z TORNADO/WATERSPOUT THREATS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN AN HOUR OR TWO. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT ACROSS KTPA/KMLB. S OF THIS FRONT...TROPICAL AIR MASS EXISTS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWED NO CINH AND 3800 J/KG MUCAPE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT AS HEATING COMMENCES...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN FL AND MOVE NNWWD INTO CNTRL FL. HIGHER 0-1KM SRH VALUES EXIST VCNTY THE WARM FRONT...BUT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER MOST OF CNTRL AND SRN FL THROUGH THE MORNING AS ALBERTO MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE WCOAST. AS A RESULT...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE AFTN AND ACROSS THE CNTRL PARTS OF THE STATE. ..RACY.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 27528282 28388271 28648070 28108035 26597973 25688007 25548189 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 15:10:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 11:10:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121509 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121509 NCZ000-SCZ000-121715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NC/SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121509Z - 121715Z MONITORING PORTIONS OF SRN/CENTRAL NC AND NRN SC FOR POSSIBLE WW BY 17-18Z. AT 15Z...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER...BUT A BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDED NEAR A LINE FROM HKY TO FAY AND EWN. WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AROUND RDU...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS WRN VA/NC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL HAVE TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONCE SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOP...MLCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE MAY SUPPORT BANDS OF STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..IMY.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 35798136 36248032 35857874 35927581 35277570 33757895 34228103 35068188 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 16:38:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 12:38:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121637 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121636 FLZ000-121830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1152 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 466... VALID 121636Z - 121830Z TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SWRN FL PENINSULA. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST HOUR AS THE MORE CELLULAR STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...THE VAD WIND PROFILE AT TAMPA BAY SHOWS THE LOW SHEAR...1 KM SHEAR NEAR 4O KT ...REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE WEST CENTRAL FL COAST...IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF ALBERTO. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR SRQ TO PIE. ALSO...STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK THERMAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS NORTH OF A DAB-FMY LINE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE RESULTING IN STRONGER INSTABILITY SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THIS MAY AID IN UPDRAFT STRENGTH/POSSIBLE TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..IMY.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 29178327 29458104 28468031 26418085 25548133 25888231 27678311 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 18:06:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 14:06:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121804 ORZ000-WAZ000-122000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN ORE/WA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121804Z - 122000Z ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND BEGIN POSING A SEVERE THREAT BEFORE 21Z AS THEY MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL ORE/SCENTRAL WA. A WW MAY BE NEED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 21Z. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN CASCADES OF ORE...WHERE SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND SOME OF THESE TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NNEWD INTO THESE AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR /AREA WILL RESIDE ALONG MID LEVEL JET AXIS/ WILL SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND THREAT FOR SVR HAIL GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. FURTHER EAST...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF ERN ORE/SERN WA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE REMAINDER OF NERN ORE/ERN WA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SCENTRAL ORE/NERN CA. THESE CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT HEATING AND ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION...THUS DELAYING ISOLATED SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION THROUGH 21Z. HOWEVER WITH TIME IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES SHOULD POSE A SVR THREAT TO THIS REGION AFTER 21Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR... 45542128 43312219 42242180 42112147 42582010 44431853 45251792 47451720 48181750 48481977 46512093 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 18:07:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 14:07:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121804 ORZ000-WAZ000-122000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN ORE/WA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121804Z - 122000Z ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND BEGIN POSING A SEVERE THREAT BEFORE 21Z AS THEY MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL ORE/SCENTRAL WA. A WW MAY BE NEED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 21Z. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN CASCADES OF ORE...WHERE SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND SOME OF THESE TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NNEWD INTO THESE AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR /AREA WILL RESIDE ALONG MID LEVEL JET AXIS/ WILL SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND THREAT FOR SVR HAIL GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. FURTHER EAST...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF ERN ORE/SERN WA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE REMAINDER OF NERN ORE/ERN WA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SCENTRAL ORE/NERN CA. THESE CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT HEATING AND ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION...THUS DELAYING ISOLATED SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION THROUGH 21Z. HOWEVER WITH TIME IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES SHOULD POSE A SVR THREAT TO THIS REGION AFTER 21Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR... 45542128 43312219 42242180 42112147 42582010 44431853 45251792 47451720 48181750 48481977 46512093  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 18:07:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 14:07:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121805 COZ000-NMZ000-122000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...FAR NE NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121805Z - 122000Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. VISIBLE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE FRONT RANGE. THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND ENCOUNTER MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW STRONGLY VEERING WIND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME LIKELY AS THE STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 9.0 C/KM GENERALLY WEST OF I-25. THIS SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER PEAKS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP. ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36290327 36180449 36930484 37660494 38790496 39280456 39110344 37610306 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 18:09:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 14:09:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121805 COZ000-NMZ000-122000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...FAR NE NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121805Z - 122000Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. VISIBLE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE FRONT RANGE. THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND ENCOUNTER MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW STRONGLY VEERING WIND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME LIKELY AS THE STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 9.0 C/KM GENERALLY WEST OF I-25. THIS SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER PEAKS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP. ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36290327 36180449 36930484 37660494 38790496 39280456 39110344 37610306  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 19:18:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 15:18:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121916 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121916 MTZ000-IDZ000-WAZ000-122145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1155 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ID PANHANDLE...FAR NERN WA/NWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121916Z - 122145Z ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP EITHER NORTH OF OR EMBEDDED IN ADVANCING CLOUD SHIELD MOVING ACROSS SERN WA/NERN ORE. OVERALL SVR THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL THROUGH 22Z...AND A WW IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE THEN. AIRMASS OVER NERN WA...NRN ID PANHANDLE AND NWRN MT WILL LIKELY SEE SLOW DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS...AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN ORE. EMBEDDED ELEVATED CELLS WITHIN THIS CLOUD MASS HAVE SHOWN BRIEF SIGNS OF INCREASING IN THE LAST HOUR...BUT THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL SHEAR AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. A MODIFIED 12Z OTX SOUNDING AND RECENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES FROM 78-80 DEG IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE REMAINS A SHORT WINDOW THAT CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NERN WA/NRN ID PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN MT BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD OFFSET HEATING FOR SEVERAL HRS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY BE VERY ISOLATED. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE MAIN SVR THREAT WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE INITIAL CLOUD MASS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA /AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/ WHEN DESTABILIZATION INCREASES AFTER 22Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED AFTER THAT TIME. ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX...PDT... 48941614 48881865 48571927 46911945 46521900 46251781 46731541 47361410 48861406 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 19:59:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 15:59:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121958 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121958 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-122130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121958Z - 122130Z A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY INITIATING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WWD ACROSS WEST TX TO NEAR CLOVIS NM. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S F...THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AS SHOWN BY RUC ANALYSIS 700-500 MB LIFTED INDEX. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS BUT SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EXPANDS ACROSS THE WEST TX CAPROCK. THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 33470168 33660269 34320315 35820302 36380257 36580152 35880063 34610061 33850102 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 20:36:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 16:36:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122034 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-122200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1157 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SC...NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467... VALID 122034Z - 122200Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOW A LARGE MCS ONGOING ACROSS NRN SC AND SRN NC. THE STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE MCS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM NEAR GREENVILLE SC TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE NC. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F AND MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST COAST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP... 34107762 33788012 33868159 34038262 34558287 35228219 35338010 35627815 35597635 34787602 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 21:20:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 17:20:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122118 SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-122315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0418 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY/SWRN SD AND THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122118Z - 122315Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS MAY DEVELOP EAST OF MAIN SFC TROUGH ACROSS ERN WY...AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SWRN SD IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. RELATIVELY MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE SVR THREAT SHOULD NOT BE ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR A WW. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF LOW-MID 50S DEWPTS EXTENDING NWWD FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE NWWD INTO SCENTRAL MT. RECENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CINH WAS DECREASING RAPIDLY JUST EAST OF A SFC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR CYS TO SHR. INCIPIENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SVR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS /BY 22Z/ AS IT MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY. ALSO MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAKENING CINH MAY ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BLACK HILLS. RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS /20 KTS/ DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD MAINLY SUPPORT MULTICELL TSTM MODE. HOWEVER...MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG/ COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW... 42830289 43830307 44580360 44640540 44350679 43910697 42860609 41710512 41180449 41250335 41850290 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 21:48:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 17:48:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122147 OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-122345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1159 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NERN NM AND FAR WRN OK/NWRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468... VALID 122147Z - 122345Z CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE RATON MESA REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS UNION COUNTY NM. AREA EAST OF WW 468 WILL BE MONITORED FOR A NEW WW IN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN CO IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. NORTH OF WW 468 ACROSS NERN CO...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANOTHER WW. A CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE RATON MESA/NERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SLOWLY ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS INTO A MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS /MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG/ EXTENDING ACROSS THE NWRN TX AND WRN OK PANHANDLES. EWD EXTENT OF SVR THREAT INTO SERN CO WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS DUE TO PRESENCE OF MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. DESPITE UPPER RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS /35-40 KTS/ DUE TO PRESENCE OF ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 10-15 KTS. THUS STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY SHOW SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH...SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS EXIST...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS MORE VEERED...SUPPORTING SIMILAR VERTICAL SHEAR AS AREAS SOUTH. ISOLATED STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INVOF COLO SPRINGS AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME SVR IN THE NEXT HR OR SO UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THIS MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE DEN AREA IN THE SAME TIME FRAME AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED INVOF OF DEN CYCLONE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN NERN CO. ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 39190345 37380285 36600142 35500143 35040233 35700493 36320505 39350549 40600533 40840409 40680362 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 22:30:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 18:30:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122228 MTZ000-IDZ000-130030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1160 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID AND WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122228Z - 130030Z ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS IN ID AND SWRN MT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. AIRMASS OVER NWRN MT AND NRN ID SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 00Z. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU OVER THE NRN CENTRAL MTS OF ID AND FAR SWRN MT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN ORE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG/ AND WEAKENING CINH BASED ON RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH APPROACHING UPPER FORCING AND CONTINUED HEATING/UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 00Z. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR DISCRETE CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER SVR COVERAGE IS INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF UPPER JET AND IT/S EFFECTS ON HEATING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...OTX... 47091308 48451404 49051439 48471682 46461562 45401484 44771435 45381186 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 22:34:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 18:34:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122233 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-130000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1161 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467... VALID 122233Z - 130000Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW TIL 01Z EXPIRATION. NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN MYRTLE BEACH AND WILMINGTON...WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY THROUGH 00-01Z SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/THERMAL LOW ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HEATED INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP. THEREAFTER...STABILIZING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING TRENDS. DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EAST OF BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH...IS PROGGED TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST OF SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 03Z...WHEN CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH MORE RAPIDLY. ..KERR.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34038257 34288198 34458099 35128033 35527994 35597927 35567795 35717671 35697568 35237548 34897624 34567720 33997760 33727822 33527922 33838022 33698094 33508155 33348227 33408312 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 23:48:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 19:48:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122346 FLZ000-GAZ000-130145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1162 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 469... VALID 122346Z - 130145Z TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT COULD INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. A NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED BY SCHEDULED 02Z EXPIRATION OF WW 469. LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE NEAR SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF TROPICAL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. AS ALBERTO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...BAND OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD...INLAND ACROSS THE BIG BEND...PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS GAINESVILLE DURING THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TAMPA AREA. MODIFICATION OF RAIN- COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER TO ONE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ...IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REGIME BENEATH LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS... DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. BUT RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD INCREASE IN THE IMMEDIATE TAMPA AS EARLY AS 03Z. UNTIL THEN...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SEEMS MINIMAL. ..KERR.. 06/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29068290 29628300 30228274 30408207 30178143 29128152 28578194 27718239 27338271 27708303 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 00:15:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 20:15:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 130014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130014 MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-130215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1163 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ORE...SRN WA...NRN ID AND NWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470...472... VALID 130014Z - 130215Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY NRN/ERN PORTIONS OF WW 470...AS SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SW OF INITIAL ACTIVITY. OVER WW 472...CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER NERN ORE WILL MAINTAIN INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING INTO NRN ID OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. ADDITIONAL SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE ID/MT BORDER AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME ERN PORTION OF WW 472 AND JUST EAST OF WW 472. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH ERN ORE...WAS SUPPORTING CLUSTER OF STG-SVR STORMS OVER WW 472 /NERN ORE/ WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS. SEVERAL STORMS HAVE LIKEWISE EXHIBITED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND THE SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO NRN ID. TO THE WEST THE SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER NERN PORTIONS OF WW 470 AHEAD OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE BUT HAS LIKELY BEEN DIMINISHED OVER SRN WW 470 DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH MAY BE CLEARED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OVER THE BITTEROOTS OF FAR WRN MT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY EAST OF WW 472 SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF ANY OF THIS SVR THREAT...AND A NEW WW EAST OF WW 472 IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..CROSBIE.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 46662075 46512080 46132144 43972124 43941841 43431842 44831480 45411385 46761340 47801429 47571667 47141928 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 00:51:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 20:51:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 130049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130049 COZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-130245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1164 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468...471... VALID 130049Z - 130245Z CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND RECENTLY...BUT REDEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS AND TERRAIN/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY STILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT FOR THE NRN HALF OF WW 468 AND MOST OF 471 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. VIS SAT AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING GENERALLY NWWD WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. SEVERAL ONGOING GENERALLY WEAK CELLS MAY FLARE UP AND POSE A SVR THREAT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME WHEN THESE BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE NRN HALF OF WW 468 AND WW 471. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE AS UPSLOPE FLOW GETS LOCALLY ENHANCED AS AIRMASS REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED /PER THE 00Z DNR SOUNDING/. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS EVENING...AND MAY SUPPORT THE SVR THREAT INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WW/S 468 AND 470 FOR A COUPLE HRS AFTER DARK...GIVEN THE MOIST 850 MB LEVEL AND RELATIVELY WEAK INHIBITION NOTED ON THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING. ..CROSBIE.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 41080259 41060467 39190521 37020504 36850465 37000303 38570289 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 04:55:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 00:55:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 130453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130453 FLZ000-130630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1165 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 473... VALID 130453Z - 130630Z CONTINUE WW. VWP FROM TAMPA NOW INDICATES 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN 1 KM OF THE SURFACE...AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST SIMILAR FLOW DEVELOPING EAST NORTHEAST OF TAMPA TOWARD NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGEST NORTHEAST OF TAMPA...WHERE SURFACE FLOW IS MAINTAINING A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE VICINITY OF REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MODIFYING RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS. SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE NOW IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY INCREASE THROUGH 06-08Z WEST/NORTHWEST OF ORLANDO INTO THE OCALA AREA...AS CENTER OF ALBERTO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. ..KERR.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 28248157 28028181 28128243 28508244 28898246 29188227 29088167 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 07:21:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 03:21:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 130719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130719 FLZ000-GAZ000-130845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL...NRN FL AND EXTREME SERN/SCNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130719Z - 130845Z TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY NEWD ABOUT 80 MILES SW OF CEDAR KEY FL AT 07Z. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT EWD FROM THE LOW AND ACROSS NRN FL JUST S OF KCTY-KGNV-KSGJ. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED ACROSS NCNTRL FL AND ALBERTO SHOULD CONTINUE ON A TRACK ENEWD TOWARD NCNTRL FL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND ALBERTO WITH THE STRONGEST BAND CURRENTLY MOVING NWD ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN FL PENINSULA. OTHER BANDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO ORGANIZE FARTHER W OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA. VWP DERIVED HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL TURNING HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NE FROM EARLY IN THE EVE...MAINLY FROM THE LAKELAND AREA NWD WITH 0-1KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD...HIGHEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST WHERE THEY APPROACH THE WARM FRONT. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE INCREASING ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER AREA AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLIGHTLY NWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVER SRN GA. AS A RESULT...ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NRN FL AND EXTREME SRN GA. ..RACY.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 26508249 28998390 29588491 30878432 31648202 31178123 29538074 27868051 26368091 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 11:23:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 07:23:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131122 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131121 FLZ000-GAZ000-131145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1167 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 473...474... VALID 131121Z - 131145Z WT473 HAS A 12Z EXPIRATION AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL WFO/S...A DECISION WILL BE MADE WHETHER TO ISSUE A NEW WW. DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTO HAS BEEN ROTATING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN FL. THIS BAND HAS LARGELY MOVED OFFSHORE...EXCEPT THE SRN END THAT TRAILS SWWD ACROSS THE CAPE AND INTO THE NAPLES AREA. PER LATEST VWP FROM TBW/MLB...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE VEERED ACROSS CNTRL FL AND EFFECTIVELY LESSENED THE 0-1KM SRH. FARTHER TO THE N...JAX VWP REMAINS FAVORABLY SHEARED FOR TORNADOES. BUT...SATL SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WRAPPING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY PROVE DETRIMENTAL IN SUPPORTING SUSTAINED BANDING STRUCTURES/CONVECTION. PRIND THAT THERE WILL BE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MAINLY AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST ACROSS CNTRL FL THROUGH LATE MORNING. FARTHER N...WITHIN THE RICHER HELICITY ENVIRONMENT...GIVEN A SUSTAINED STORM...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN WT474. ..RACY.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 26428203 30298372 31478232 31238040 28508017 26608131 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 18:03:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 14:03:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131801 SCZ000-GAZ000-131930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1169 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SC...SE GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131801Z - 131930Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN SC AND ERN GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF ERN GA AND SRN SC FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE CENTER OF A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXISTS JUST OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THIS FEATURE IS CREATING STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONG SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL ROTATING STORMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 50-75 MILES OFFSHORE FROM SAVANNA GA. AS THIS CONVECTION APPROACHES THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX... 31278102 31608178 32048183 32858114 33588017 33417943 32757918 31798030 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 18:42:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 14:42:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131841 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131841 SDZ000-132015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1170 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131841Z - 132015Z A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE SD. HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN NEB AND WRN SD. A BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM WRN ND INTO ERN SD ALONG THE SRN SIDE OF 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET. CELLS ARE INITIATING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET ALONG A SFC TROUGH AND STRONG GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY. THE MID-LEVEL JET IS CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE SD. IF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CAN INITIATE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F...THEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... 43739732 43839946 44450009 45469974 45779823 45149685 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 18:54:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 14:54:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131852 MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-131945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1171 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NRN ID / FAR WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131852Z - 131945Z WW MAY BE ISSUED BY 20Z FOR PARTS OF WRN/NRN ID INTO FAR WRN MT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG/E OF CLOUD BAND/BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 AT MSO...AND BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG AT PRESENT OVER WRN MT AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NRN ID/MT BORDER. ADDITIONAL HEATING EXPECTED TO AID IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION/WEAKENING INHIBITION FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED CU ALREADY FORMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL ID/ WRN MT WHERE STRONGEST INSOLATION IS OCCURRING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. A FURTHER INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX APPROACHES REGION FROM THE SOUTH...MAINTAINING THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..PETERS.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 48681678 48991663 49011411 47761331 46671298 44751365 44641453 43531492 43091585 43861727 48741698 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 20:05:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 16:05:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132003 SDZ000-132200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1172 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132003Z - 132200Z STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 21Z ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM NEAR SPEARFISH TO PIERRE SD. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F AND THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING CUMULUS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE BLACK HILLS AND FURTHER EAST BETWEEN PIERRE AND HURON SD. AS THE CAPPING INVERSION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43189908 42990210 43470377 44630355 44940130 44589880 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 20:39:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 16:39:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132037 TXZ000-132230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1173 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132037Z - 132230Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SE TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR WACO INTO THE HOUSTON AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD ACROSS EAST TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES IN PLACE WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB. THIS SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. THE LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... 29189489 29359542 29689577 30359578 30679503 30219410 29369437 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 22:40:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 18:40:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132238 SDZ000-WYZ000-140015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1174 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477... VALID 132238Z - 140015Z CONTINUE WW. SHARP UPPER RIDGING IS GENERALLY INHIBITIVE...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY. THIS IS OCCURRING MAINLY WHERE OROGRAPHY/STRONG HEATING WEAKENED INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY JUST SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS...AND JUST NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN. GIVEN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG...FAVORABLE SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG VEERING OF WIND FIELDS FROM EASTERLY/SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH HEIGHT...WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFYING STORMS THROUGH 00-01Z. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ..KERR.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 44730403 45100314 44760220 44650006 44409863 43999837 43559863 43259965 43410026 43760086 43800142 43430261 43460349 44030436 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 23:09:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 19:09:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132307 MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-140030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1175 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NRN ID / FAR WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476... VALID 132307Z - 140030Z INITIAL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE WRN TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH SRN ID...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF MSO TO EKO. THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER ID IS INDICATIVE OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC JET MAXIMUM ADVANCING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN NV. THE 1900 UTC TFX RAOB SHOWED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH A WELL MIXED...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON INSOLATION PRIOR TO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO MLCAPES NOW IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG OVER NORTHWEST MT TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG OVER THE SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS AND TREASURE VALLEY. AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS AT OR ABOVE 45 TO 50 KTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ..BRIGHT.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 43201697 49021675 48981356 43301413 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 23:46:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 19:46:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132344 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-140145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1176 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN GA THROUGH THE CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 475... VALID 132344Z - 140145Z CONTINUE WW. AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED BY SCHEDULED 02Z EXPIRATION OF WW 475. TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REFLECTED BY MID/UPPER 70S DEW POINTS REMAINS OFFSHORE...AHEAD OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE EVIDENT EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO AREAS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. INTERSECTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH WEAK WARM FRONTAL ZONE APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR MAIN...GROWING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF CHARLESTON...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHEN/IF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INLAND. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS NEAR 70F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK CONDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...EVEN WITH ONSET OF WEAK DIURNAL COOLING...AND LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF ALBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...AS ITS CENTER LIFTS NORTH OF WAYCROSS GA TOWARD THE SAVANNAH VALLEY THROUGH 03-06Z. ..KERR.. 06/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 32768191 33478180 33988086 34378015 35017896 34287807 33407866 32598009 32158088 31958132 32238166 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 02:41:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 22:41:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140240 SDZ000-NEZ000-140415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1177 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0940 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477... VALID 140240Z - 140415Z CONTINUE WW. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WW BY 04Z EXPIRATION. ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...AND IS PROBABLY BEING SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...FORMING AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. THIS JET MAY STRENGTHEN UP TO 40 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF HIGH PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE. THOUGH CAPPING BENEATH UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY...AN EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03-06Z...NEAR/SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF PIERRE INTO AREAS WEST OF CHAMBERLAIN. IF THIS OCCURS...OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES COULD BE SIGNIFICANT...SUPPORTING A FEW DOWNBURSTS...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL. OTHERWISE...FAVORABLY SHEARED FLOW IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43760236 44140205 44110076 44029952 43899913 43379905 42880002 42870053 43220164 43280216 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 06:21:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 02:21:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140619 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140619 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-140815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1178 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC/NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 478... VALID 140619Z - 140815Z 06Z SFC ANALYSIS/RADAR DEPICT THE REMNANTS OF ALBERTO JUST S OF KAGS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NEWD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SC/NC AND GIVEN STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS VCNTY THIS BOUNDARY...THE LOW SHOULD MIGRATE NEWD ALONG THIS PATH THROUGH 12Z. THE LONGEST-LIVED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BEEN LIFTING NWD ACROSS SC WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS TRACKING EAST OF US 52. HERE...TSTMS HAVE BEEN ENCOUNTERING THE WARM FRONT AS THEY MOVE NEWD. 0-1KM SHEAR DERIVED FROM THE CHS VWP WAS QUITE STRONG...ON THE ORDER OF 360+ M2/S2 AND CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADOES. SPIRAL BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...BUT STRONGER STORMS SHOULD FAVOR THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE EWD TO THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES TO AREAS NEAR/E OF KFLO THROUGH 08Z. OTHER STORMS COULD FORM OFFSHORE AND MOVE NWD INTO SRN COASTAL NC LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE STRONGEST LLJ AXIS SHIFTS EWD...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY SPREAD UP THE COAST INTO ERN NC NEAR/AFTER 12Z. ..RACY.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33038147 34907863 35627745 34977644 34137670 33047839 32057983 31798065 32328145 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 06:59:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 02:59:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140658 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-140930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1179 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL ND AND CNTRL/NERN SD CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 140658Z - 140930Z NW-SE ORIENTED BANDS OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SCNTRL ND AND CNTRL/NERN SD. HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVELS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STRONG GRT BASIN UPPER LOW. THIS HAS LIKELY AUGMENTED THE LLJ WITH 30 KT H85 SLY FLOW NOW BEING OBSERVED ON THE RAPID CITY VWP. THE LLJ WAS IMPINGING ON AN H85-H7 BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE INCREASING TSTMS EARLY THIS MORNING JUST TO THE NE OF A STRONG CAP SITUATED OVER THE HIGHER PLAINS. RUC GUIDANCE HAS THE LLJ GRADUALLY VEERING THROUGH THE MORNING... MAXIMIZING WARM ADVECTION FROM SCNTRL ND SEWD INTO ECNTRL SD. THUS...ONE OR MORE BANDS OF STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 09-12Z. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WAS GREATER THAN 50 KTS. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE INITIAL CELLS TO RAPIDLY ORGANIZE GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. THE ORGANIZATION OF ANY GIVEN UPDRAFT WILL PROBABLY SHORT-LIVED AS THE NUMBER OF STORMS INCREASE. BUT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SEWD WHILE STRONGER CELLS FAVOR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE BANDS CLOSER TO THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT. ..RACY.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45170143 47550355 47720253 47100048 45959691 44579661 43949739 44109982 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 14:45:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 10:45:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141444 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141443 SDZ000-NDZ000-141615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1180 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0943 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ND/NRN-NERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141443Z - 141615Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO NRN-NERN SD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH PRIMARY SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN NRN WY ESEWD ACROSS SRN SD INTO SRN MN...WHILE A SECONDARY TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDED NEWD ACROSS NWRN SD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN ND. 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED A STRONG CAP REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS STATES... WITH ONGOING AND NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FORMING AND TRACKING SEWD ALONG THE NRN-NERN PART OF THE CAP. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER SERN MT...WITH THIS IMPULSE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ITS NEWD MOVEMENT AND TRACK MORE ELY INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN ND/NRN SD...WITH ACTIVITY REMAINING MAINLY ELEVATED. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS MID LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN SSWLY LLJ INTO CENTRAL/ERN SD AIDING IN FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SSEWD ACROSS FAR SERN SD AND SWRN MN HAS STABILIZED THE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION...AND MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE EWD EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE NEW ACTIVITY OVER SRN ND/NRN SD. ..PETERS.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45880125 46330150 46660123 46610005 46429874 46079762 45509698 44889727 44689794 45259905 45560073 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 15:15:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 11:15:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141513 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141513 NCZ000-141715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1181 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 479... VALID 141513Z - 141715Z ...ISOLD TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS THE REMAINS OF ALBERTO MOVE ACROSS ERN NC... LATEST SFC AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS PLACE ALBERTO BETWEEN SSC /SUMPTER SC/ AND UDG /DARLINGTON SC/ WITH RECENT WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AT SUMPTER. WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER TO NEAR MEB/PGV...WHERE WINDS HAVE MAINTAINED S/SELY COMPONENT. STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE FALLS /2-4 MB PER 3 HOURS/ ARE FOCUSED NEAR FORT BRAGG NC WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN ISALLOBARIC ELY COMPONENT. VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF NC. LATEST 0-1KM SRH VALUES RANGE FROM 300-500 M2/S2 PER VAD WIND DATA FROM BOTH RALEIGH AND MOREHEAD CITY RADARS. ..TAYLOR.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 34657827 34927912 35237838 36437540 35687538 34907537 34257706 34677766 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 16:38:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 12:38:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141637 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141636 MTZ000-WYZ000-141800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1182 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WY / SOUTH CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141636Z - 141800Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN WY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS MOVING NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN WY/SRN MT INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND/OR WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE EWD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THIS SAME AREA OF INSTABILITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER ERN ID/NRN UT...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SWLY 70 KT MID LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM UT INTO SRN WY. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH/PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE...FROM SWRN MT INTO NRN-NERN UT. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN WY/SOUTH CENTRAL MT TO THE WEST OF THE BIG HORN BASIN. A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS OVER CENTRAL AND NERN WY WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MOIST ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE BIG HORN BASIN. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING HAS ALLOWED THE AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/... WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AIDING IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. ENELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT BENEATH DEEP SSWLY FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 43840942 44560937 46100936 46770947 46910832 46840730 46680646 44940597 43610685 43430730 43470845 43590918 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 18:49:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 14:49:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141847 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141847 NCZ000-142045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC/OUTER BANKS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 479... VALID 141847Z - 142045Z ...TORNADO THREAT IS BECOMING MORE LIMITED AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME ERN PORTIONS OF NC INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS... CENTER OF ALBERTO CIRCULATION IS NOW AROUND 60-70 MILES SE OF RALEIGH-DURHAM...WITH WINDS ALREADY VEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST AT GSB/ISO. LATEST RADAR DATA FROM MOREHEAD CITY NC SHOW A FEW STRONG CELLS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE OUTER BANKS. ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ESPECIALLY NEAR HSE/MQI WHERE SFC WINDS ARE SELY...MAXIMIZING LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. EARLIER REPORT OF A TORNADO WAS RECEIVED IN MOREHEAD CITY A COUPLE HOURS AGO. THREAT WILL END FAIRLY SOON ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER...AND WATCH 479 IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 20Z. ..TAYLOR.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... 34697611 35027705 35617752 35827695 36347573 36397536 34897521 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 20:34:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 16:34:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142032 MTZ000-WYZ000-142100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1184 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481... VALID 142032Z - 142100Z WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR SERN MT. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO SPREAD NWD AND NOW EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT SEWD INTO SERN MT/WEST CENTRAL SD...WHILE A COLD FRONT PROGRESSED EWD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND INTO CENTRAL WY. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN MOIST WARM SECTOR HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ AND A WEAKENING CAP ACROSS SE MT/FAR NRN-NERN WY. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOW CENTERED OVER ERN ID/WRN WY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE REST OF NRN WY AND NRN/ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPPORTING THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND STRONGER CAP PER 18Z GGW SOUNDING SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NRN MT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT. ..PETERS.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 48150648 45930519 44960520 45000841 45040937 46481029 48061066 48951104 48900828 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 20:35:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 16:35:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142033 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-142200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1185 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0333 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB/ERN CO/EXTREME WRN KS/EXTREME SW SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142033Z - 142200Z ...ISOLD HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF LEE TROUGH... TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW/MID 100S ACROSS THE CO HIGH PLAINS INTO SW NEB. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ISOLD STORM FORMED JUST EAST OF SNY WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH BASED CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS SE CO NEAR LAA AND ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS. LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL BE MOST FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. GIVEN EXCESSIVE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS...ISOLD STRONG/DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ..TAYLOR.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 37050188 37020292 37800376 39460358 40610371 42310435 43840435 44330409 44360280 41490151 39200127 38100120 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 20:36:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 16:36:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142032 MTZ000-WYZ000-142100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1184 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481... VALID 142032Z - 142100Z WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR SERN MT. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO SPREAD NWD AND NOW EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT SEWD INTO SERN MT/WEST CENTRAL SD...WHILE A COLD FRONT PROGRESSED EWD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND INTO CENTRAL WY. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN MOIST WARM SECTOR HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ AND A WEAKENING CAP ACROSS SE MT/FAR NRN-NERN WY. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOW CENTERED OVER ERN ID/WRN WY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE REST OF NRN WY AND NRN/ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPPORTING THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND STRONGER CAP PER 18Z GGW SOUNDING SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NRN MT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT. ..PETERS.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 48150648 45930519 44960520 45000841 45040937 46481029 48061066 48951104 48900828  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 20:36:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 16:36:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142033 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-142200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1185 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0333 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB/ERN CO/EXTREME WRN KS/EXTREME SW SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142033Z - 142200Z ...ISOLD HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF LEE TROUGH... TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW/MID 100S ACROSS THE CO HIGH PLAINS INTO SW NEB. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ISOLD STORM FORMED JUST EAST OF SNY WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH BASED CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS SE CO NEAR LAA AND ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS. LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL BE MOST FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. GIVEN EXCESSIVE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS...ISOLD STRONG/DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ..TAYLOR.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 37050188 37020292 37800376 39460358 40610371 42310435 43840435 44330409 44360280 41490151 39200127 38100120  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 21:10:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 17:10:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142108 WYZ000-MTZ000-142215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL WY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 480... VALID 142108Z - 142215Z AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM OR TWO REMAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO /22-23Z/...BUT GREATER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NNE INTO SERN MT. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORM WAS LOCATED OVER BIG HORN COUNTY MT...WHILE WEAKER CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE VALID PART OF WW 480 /ERN PARK TO SHERIDAN COUNTIES WY/. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED WINDS ACROSS THE WY COUNTIES OF PARK/BIG HORN AND WASHAKIE HAD VEERED TO WLY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING AIR MASS MAY CONTINUE TO STABILIZE LIMITING ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WW 480 COULD BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO THE SCHEDULED 15/00Z EXPIRATION TIME. ..PETERS.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW... 44110713 44020901 45010982 44940601 44570605 44480665 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 22:49:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 18:49:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142247 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-150015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT / SWRN ND / NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482...483... VALID 142247Z - 150015Z THROUGH 01Z...EXPECT GREATEST SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM NEAR AND S OF MLS INTO FAR SWRN ND AND NWRN SD. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NECESSARY TO THE N OF WWS 482 AND 483. AS OF 2225Z...BILLINGS RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED STORMS EXHIBITING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER ERN ROSEBUD COUNTY MOVING 220/30 KTS. HAIL FOUR INCHES IN DIAMETER WAS REPORTED WITH THE NORTHERN-MOST CELL WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT STORM MOTIONS INDICATES THAT NRN PORTION OF THIS STORM CLUSTER WILL MOVE N OF WW 482 INTO PRAIRIE COUNTY MT BETWEEN 2330 AND 0000Z. INTENSIFICATION OF MORE RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM CARTER COUNTY MT INTO HARDING...BUTTE AND MEADE COUNTIES IN SD ALSO APPEARS LIKELY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH INCREASES FROM THE SW. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...CORRIDOR FROM NEAR 2WX SEWD ALONG IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE A COMPARATIVELY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. HERE...WEAKER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING COUPLED WITH LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD MORE DISCRETE...SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THIS AREA...AN UPGRADE TO TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ..MEAD.. 06/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46260614 46850593 47290511 47240366 46630221 45870184 45110181 44850227 44840298 45140385 45500520 45530582 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 00:54:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 20:54:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150052 NDZ000-MTZ000-150145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN MT AND NWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150052Z - 150145Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NE OF WW 484 BETWEEN 0100-0130Z AND AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. AS OF 0040Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A SUPERCELL TO BOW ECHO EVOLUTION OVER NRN DAWSON COUNTY MT WITH A GUST TO 79 KTS RECENTLY OBSERVED AT GDV. THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPEARS TO HAVE ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY /OBSERVED SYSTEM MOTION OF 210 AT 40-45 KTS/ AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...STORMS WOULD MOVE N OF WW 484 BY 0130Z. INCREASING LINEAR STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 KT WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG CREST OF EVOLVING BOW ECHO GENERALLY W OF HIGHWAY 16. ..MEAD.. 06/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... 48130524 48770527 49140419 49070279 48420216 48220258 48050367 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 02:59:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 22:59:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150257 SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-150430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1189 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0957 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL ND/SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150257Z - 150430Z THROUGH 04Z...GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 484. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL NEB INTO S-CNTRL SD. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 04 0R 05Z E OF CURRENT WW. AS OF 0240Z...REGIONAL RADAR...IR SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER WIBAUX COUNTY MT EWD INTO GOLDEN VALLEY AND BILLINGS COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL ND WITH A GENERAL MOTION OF 230 AT 35 KTS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY AND ON THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NNEWD INTO CNTRL MT. PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP FIELDS AND LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE STRONG SELY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD ENHANCE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW INTO ONGOING STORMS...MAINTAINING A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EWD TOWARD THE MO RIVER OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE S...A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS OF 0245Z OVER BENNETT COUNTY SD AND CHERRY COUNTY NEB...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOWER LATITUDE IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH MEAN NRN ROCKIES TROUGH. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS S OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE S OF RAP SEWD INTO N-CNTRL NEB. GIVEN THAT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WELL N OF THIS AREA...AS WELL AS MORE INTENSE DPVA...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND NO ADDITIONAL WW IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 06/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...GGW... 47000437 47640435 48010373 47940129 47040012 45189974 43149943 42529972 42310028 42550123 42970180 44550258 45590268 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 05:50:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 01:50:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150548 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150548 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-150645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1190 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN HIGH PLAINS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 484... VALID 150548Z - 150645Z VALID PORTIONS OF WT 484 ACROSS WRN ND AND WRN SD HAS AN EXPIRATION OF 07Z. LINGERING TSTMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS NWRN/NCNTRL SD EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOCATED FARTHER W. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING RECENTLY VCNTY SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER AND UPSTREAM ACROSS SCNTRL MANT SWD INTO EXTREME NERN MT ALONG A SFC TROUGH. RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS WERE ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE LAYER AND SHOULD MAINLY BE AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT. GIVEN THE OVERALL DECREASE IN TORNADO PROBABILITIES AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR ONLY ISOLD LARGE HAIL...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT RENEWED WW WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE HIGHER PLAINS THIS MORNING. ..RACY.. 06/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 43410178 43730476 48440718 49000730 49860727 50250378 49400135 47120052 44149973 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 06:09:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 02:09:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150608 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150607 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-150830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1191 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA AND EXTREME SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150607Z - 150830Z ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA AND PERHAPS EXTREME SWRN MN. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...UNLESS STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY INCREASES. PLAN VIEW OF PROFILER DATA INDICATES THAT A 60 KT H85 JET WAS IMPINGING ON A NW-SE ORIENTED SFC-H85 FRONT OVER THE NEB/SD BORDER. OVERALL INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM CNTRL-NCNTRL NEB AND MAINTENANCE OF EVE CONVECTION MOVING EWD ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER ATTEST TO THE STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION. STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP ACROSS SERN SD INTO NWRN IA. 00Z LBF SOUNDING SHOWED VERY STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES OVER 9 DEG C/KM AND THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND ISOLD LARGE HAIL. OVERALL ORGANIZATION WILL BE BRIEF WITH ANY INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFT GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AOB 35 KTS. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWED A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND A SHALLOW NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER. THUS...GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER THERE WILL BE A LARGER SCALE ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE MORNING THAT MIGHT INCREASE RISKS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HAIL OR HIGH WINDS. THUS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR INCREASES IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE. ..RACY.. 06/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 44019933 44049693 43679542 42659428 41719500 41979814 43159991 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 19:47:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 15:47:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 151945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151944 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-152115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1192 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE CO...NW KS...SRN AND WCNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151944Z - 152115Z AN ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS EXTREME ERN CO...NW KS AND SWRN NEB. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 21Z ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER SERN CO WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEB. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL MOVE NNEWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE CREATING FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE HIGH-BASED DUE TO LARGE TEMP-SFC DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40 TO 50 DEGREES. THIS SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT ALTHOUGH HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY EXPAND NWD ACROSS WCNTRL NEB AS THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS AND NEW STORMS INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37670253 38200342 40680269 41760192 42050091 41589955 40019982 37780112 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 20:56:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 16:56:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 152053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152053 NDZ000-SDZ000-152230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1193 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ND...NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152053Z - 152230Z AS CONVECTION INCREASES ACROSS FAR NRN SD AND SRN/CNTRL ND THIS AFTERNOON...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL DEVELOP. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL SD WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM THE LOW INTO CNTRL ND. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE TROUGH ARE IN THE 60S F AND A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX IN CNTRL SD ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL AID STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN ND. AS THE CAP WEAKENS...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STRENGTHEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 06/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45370015 45680096 46370151 47500111 48040009 48149897 47769816 47089773 46029802 45399917 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 22:00:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 18:00:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 152158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152158 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-152300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1194 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0458 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...TX/OK PNHDLS...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152158Z - 152300Z CHANCES OF SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL...WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM NERN NM ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDLS...AND SWRN KS THROUGH THE EVENING. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SHORTLY. STRONG HEATING AND DEEP MIXING ALONG NWRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS AIDED HIGH-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX PNHDL OVER THE PAST HOUR. MEANWHILE...PLUME OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH HAS PROMOTED ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS NERN NM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE/PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR. LARGE SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND HIGH DCAPE STRONGLY SUGGEST DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 06/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 37960101 37720036 35280121 33900266 34200390 35150471 37000411 37060186 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 22:45:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 18:45:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 152243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152243 NEZ000-152345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0543 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152243Z - 152345Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO DISCUSSION AREA FROM NWRN KS AND A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. AS OF 2230Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES NRN EXTENSION OF BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS WRN KS OVER RED WILLOW COUNTY NEB WITH A GENERAL STORM MOTION OF 225/25 KTS. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AMBIENT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS S-CNTRL NEB HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY MIXED THROUGH 700 MB. MOREOVER...ACCOMPANYING KINEMATIC PROFILE AND UEX VWP INDICATE MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS HOW SUBSEQUENT DEEP CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE OVER CNTRL NEB THIS EVENING GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL CO. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. ..MEAD.. 06/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... 40400087 40880059 41430016 41909982 41999884 41529833 40849833 40459861 40259952 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 23:49:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 19:49:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 152347 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152347 NEZ000-COZ000-160045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO INTO PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152347Z - 160045Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CNTRL CO IS BEGINNING TO ACT ON SWRN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS...DELINEATED BY WAVY STATIONARY BOUNDARY OR WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM S OF DEN TO W OF IML TO N OF LBF. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST SHORT TERM NAM/RUC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS NERN CO INTO PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB THROUGH 16/06Z. PRESENCE OF 45-55 KT MID-LEVEL JET AXIS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 06/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 40370247 40850290 41720229 42360085 42339995 41969966 41379981 40530100 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 00:26:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 20:26:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160024 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-160230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1197 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160024Z - 160230Z ...PORTIONS OF ERN ND/NCNTRL SD ARE BEING MONITORED FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE WATCH... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR PIR WITH OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING NWD THROUGH CNTRL ND WEST OF DVL AND JMS. ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NCNTRL SD/ERN ND THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS NOW RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S INTO SRN MANITOBA. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL ND INTO SD...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MID LEVEL SPEED MAX NOW OVER WRN ND. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOTED ON AREA VWP DATA BETWEEN MINOT AND GRAND FORKS SUGGESTS CONTINUED ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT VAD WIND DATA FROM BISMARCK AND MINOT INDICATE AROUND 40-45 KT MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER FARTHER WEST...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING. IF SUSTAINED SFC BASED CONVECTION CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY...THEN TSTMS WOULD HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. ..TAYLOR.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 44529778 44520074 48980107 49029773 48769673 46229608 44539683 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 01:09:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 21:09:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160108 NEZ000-KSZ000-160215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1198 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0808 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL KS INTO S-CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160108Z - 160215Z IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. AS OF 0100Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN INTENSE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER KEARNEY AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES OF S-CNTRL NEB...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM GRAHAM COUNTY WWD INTO GOVE AND LOGAN COUNTIES OF NWRN KS. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CAPPING INCREASES CONSIDERABLY WITH EWD EXTENT...THUS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF HOW FAR E STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN OBSERVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER GOVE AND LOGAN COUNTIES...AS WELL AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD FROM ERN CO AND INTENSIFYING SLY LLJ...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST E OF WW/S 485/486 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID... 39169957 40399963 40929931 40969861 40709801 40139800 39539817 39159866 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 02:30:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 22:30:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160228 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-160400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1199 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0928 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NEB / N-CNTRL INTO WRN KS / ERN CO / THE TX AND OK PNHDLS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485...486...488... VALID 160228Z - 160400Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PARTICULARLY WITH STORM CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE HLC AREA. HOWEVER...OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY 04-05Z. AS OF 0220Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS FROM KEARNEY AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL NEB SWWD TO GRAHAM COUNTY KS AND THEN MORE WWD INTO THOMAS AND LOGAN COUNTIES IN KS. MODIFICATION OF 00Z DDC AND AMA SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT THE CAP IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS INTO THE OK AND TX PNHDLS AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE 80S. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF MEAN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ AND RESULTANT ENHANCEMENT OF STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MORE ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS N-CNTRL KS INTO S-CNTRL NEB. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED BY AT LEAST 04-05Z OWING TO FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE CAP...THOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 38450196 39670121 40320016 40709898 40539836 39629843 38870012 36600104 35840112 35550187 35730233 36640266 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 04:31:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 00:31:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160429 SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-160600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1200 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO INTO PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB AND S-CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487... VALID 160429Z - 160600Z THROUGH 07Z...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WW AREA...PERHAPS INTO S-CNTRL SD. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SURFACE PATTERN HAS BECOME COMPLEX OWING TO EXPANSION AND MERGING OF MULTIPLE COLD POOLS. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBS AND MORESO...1000-1500 M AGL PROFILER AND VWP PLAN VIEW DATA...SUGGEST THAT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL SD SWD THROUGH N-CNTRL NEB TO A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NERN CO. AS OF 0420Z...THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXISTED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS DEEP FRONTAL ZONE FROM LOGAN COUNTY CO INTO CHEYENNE COUNTY NEB. OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE LOCATED FROM CHERRY COUNTY NEB INTO TODD AND TRIPP COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL SD. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NERN CO...COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT N AND W OF SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS FROM NEAR SNY NEWD TO NEAR AND N OF VTN THROUGH 07Z. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...THOUGH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 40730087 40400212 40500315 41860277 42810173 43530069 44059976 43819911 42319944 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 17:41:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 13:41:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 161740 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161740 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-161915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1201 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE CO...FAR NE NM...FAR SW KS...WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161740Z - 161915Z AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION BY 19Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW ACROSS NE NM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS FAR SE CO INTO WRN KS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS NM WITH A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING NEWD INTO SE CO AND THE WRN OK PANHANDLE. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE CO AND NE NM...THE ASCENT SHOULD CAUSE STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS IN SE CO ARE IN THE UPPER 40S F WITH AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS AN MCS DEVELOPS AND MOVES EWD INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36320313 36310417 36820456 37470445 38070326 38400191 38040098 37330091 36750176 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 18:00:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 14:00:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 161758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161758 NEZ000-KSZ000-161900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1202 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO N-CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161758Z - 161900Z SEVERE THREAT INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SE OF MCS ACROSS SAND HILLS OF NEB IN AREA OF FORCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 19Z. MCS ACROSS CNTRL NEB SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD AND REMAIN ELEVATED/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS INTO SD. TO THE S OF THIS...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM NEAR EAR TO THE W OF CNK. CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S/DEW POINTS IN LOWER/MID 60S. COMBINED WITH A SW-NE ZONE OF BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS FROM AREA PROFILERS...SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WITH OVERALL THREAT TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH GREATER ORGANIZATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..GRAMS.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 38959964 39889948 40679976 41250003 41620005 42169901 42549834 42149732 41529711 40729708 39879768 39249825 38909888 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 20:40:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 16:40:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162037 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-162100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1203 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 489... VALID 162037Z - 162100Z LINE OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS HAS CROSSED THE SERN CO BORDER AND MOVED INTO WRN KS AND PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 492. STRONG FORCING ATOP RESIDUAL WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SERN CO COULD STILL PROMOTE A FEW TSTMS BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING AND MUCH OF WW 489 WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..CARBIN.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36500220 36520449 39980311 39980019 39160018 38780174 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 21:04:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 17:04:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162102 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-162230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1204 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD....SWRN MN...ERN AND SCNTRL NEB...NWRN IA....CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 490...491... VALID 162102Z - 162230Z EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN/AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALIGNED WITH STRENGTHENING SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AND STORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WATCHES 490 AND 491 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AT PRESENT...A VERY INTENSE AND LONG-LIVED STORM COMPLEX MOVING NEWD AT OVER 40KT WILL CROSS TURNER AND LINCOLN COUNTIES IN SERN SD OVER THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE MOVING INTO SWRN MN BY 22Z. BOWING STRUCTURE OF THIS COMPLEX AND ORIENTATION TO 50KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS THE NRN PART OF WW 490. FARTHER SOUTH...FROM SCNTRL NEB SWD ACROSS CNTRL KS...STRONG LOW LEVEL SLY/SELY FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NWD INTO THE DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE. RESULTING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL VIGOROUS STORMS IN MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SUPERCELL MERGERS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A HAZARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TREND TOWARD LARGE SCALE LINEAR MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DEEP LAYER FRONT MAY COMMENCE AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 40689718 40649732 36989838 37019950 38709956 38780086 40660077 41410027 41519928 42939923 43319896 44239785 44189489 43259484 42949652 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 22:08:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 18:08:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162206 TXZ000-162300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1205 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0506 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY SWD INTO THE ERN PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162206Z - 162300Z THE THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 2157Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED DEEPENING CUMULUS CONVECTION AND SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT FROM CROSBY AND GARZA COUNTIES SWD TOWARD MIDLAND AND GLASSCOCK COUNTIES. HERE...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL THROUGH THE 90S...RESULTING IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /PER RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS/ WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. FURTHER HEATING ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE SHOULD SUPPORT EVENTUAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO THE ERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WRN CONCHO VALLEY. CURRENT JAYTON TX PROFILER INDICATES THAT THIS REGION IS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL. GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IT APPEARS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31140233 32960186 33710153 33810072 33729999 32000025 30440118 30460198 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 23:02:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 19:02:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162300 OKZ000-TXZ000-170030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1206 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0600 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162300Z - 170030Z THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 492 BETWEEN 00-01Z INTO WRN OK AND A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 2245Z...AMA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A RELATIVELY SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENT WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES FROM ERN ROBERTS/WRN HEMPHILL COUNTIES SWD INTO DONLEY COUNTY WITH A MOTION OF 230/35-40 KTS. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AMBIENT INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS THE FAR ERN TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO NEARLY 700 MB WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. REGIONAL PROFILERS AND RUC VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SHOW A LARGE MERIDIONAL COMPONENT OF THE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITHIN THIS LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER /AT LEAST THROUGH DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE/ OWING TO THE MODEST VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR. HOWEVER...COMPLEX WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUTFLOW-DOMINANT...SUPPORTED BY STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL IN SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THUS...IT APPEARS CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN... 36149941 36729922 36859876 36859827 36199783 35149779 34329785 34219831 34399930 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 23:28:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 19:28:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162326 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-170030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1207 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/NWRN IA/SWRN MN CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 490... VALID 162326Z - 170030Z ALTHOUGH MCS INTENSITY APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY WANED...REDEVELOPMENT ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS IN RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF 90-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET...MAY STILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS/PULSE SEVERE HAIL. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF CURRENT WW INTO NERN KS/SERN NEB. IN ADDITION...CELLS TRACKING NNE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN WIND VECTOR WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. SUBTLE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR AN MCS WITH A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON HAS TRACKED FROM THE SAND HILLS OF NEB INTO SWRN MN THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO WW 493 WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. REDEVELOPMENT HAS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS ERN NEB INTO NWRN IA WITH 20-30 KTS OF 0-1 KM SOUTHERLY INFLOW. THIS WILL BE STRENGTHENED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES. CELL MERGERS AND DEVELOPMENT ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MAY SUSTAIN A DAMAGING WIND/PULSE LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH AROUND 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. FLASH FLOODING/HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE OF GREATER CONCERN ACROSS NERN NEB/NWRN IA WITH TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE ECHOES LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..GRAMS.. 06/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40849910 41719914 42079792 42939672 44299602 44689489 42079496 41169754 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 00:28:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 20:28:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170026 KSZ000-170130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1208 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170026Z - 170130Z THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 491 BY 02Z AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NECESSARY. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A NEARLY SOLID CONVECTIVE LINE HAS DEVELOPED FROM PHILLIPS AND SMITH COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL KS TO CLARK COUNTY IN SWRN KS TO ROGER MILLS AND BECKHAM COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL OK. SMALLER-SCALE SURGES IN THIS LINE HAVE BEEN NOTED FROM PHILLIPS AND SMITH COUNTIES SWD TO ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTIES IN KS...AS WELL AS OVER NWRN OK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MORE ORGANIZED COLD POOLS. WITH TIME...EXPECT FURTHER COLD POOL EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...WITH EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY INTO S-CNTRL KS. RELATIVELY STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WITHIN BOUNDARY LAYER /WHICH SHOULD BE AIDED BY INTENSIFYING SLY LLJ/ WILL MAINTAIN STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL...SUPPORTING CONTINUED SYSTEM PROPAGATION. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC... 37119833 38089841 38469823 38849775 39069716 38809666 37889665 37119710 37019754 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 00:44:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 20:44:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170041 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-170215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1209 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN MN...N-CNTRL IA AND NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493... VALID 170041Z - 170215Z DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT CONTINUES MAINLY TO THE E OF A MESOLOW JUST N OF MKT...WITH THREAT DIMINISHING IN MCS COLD POOL REGION ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL MN. CONTINUE WW. LONG-LIVED MESOLOW ASSOCIATED WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WAS LOCATED NORTH OF MANKATO AS OF 0035Z. EMERGING LEWP STRUCTURE IN VICINITY OF LOW MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS FEATURE LIKELY TRACKS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. CONTINUED LIFT NE OF MCS COLD POOL...HAS HELPED INDUCE SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR LAKE MILLE LACS AND INTO THE ST CROIX RIVER VALLEY. ANY OF THESE CELLS...AS WELL AS THOSE WHICH ADDITIONALLY DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM...WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS PER MODIFIED INL/GRB AND RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER DARK AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE LLJ FOCUSES FURTHER W. ..GRAMS.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 44309485 45029410 46589335 47069199 46258994 44319038 43519295 42769483 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 01:03:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 21:03:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170101 OKZ000-TXZ000-170200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1210 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX PNHDL INTO NWRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 492... VALID 170101Z - 170200Z THROUGH 02Z...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST OVER SERN PORTION OF WW AREA. QUASI-LINEAR MCS HAS EVOLVED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER ERN PORTION OF WW 492 FROM E OF DDC SWD INTO NWRN OK...WITH TRAILING PORTION COMPRISED OF MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER WHEELER COUNTY TX. ANOTHER STORM CLUSTER WAS OBSERVED OVER CHILDRESS AND COTTLE COUNTIES IN THE SERN TX PNHDL/NRN TX. DESPITE MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...00Z AMA SOUNDING INDICATED THAT CONSIDERABLE COOLING HAD OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS BETWEEN 800 AND 350 MB WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WAS CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SERN TX PNHDL INTO NWRN TX AND SWRN OK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...EVEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH WITH TIME...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 35080088 35360077 35510021 34969978 34519969 34130017 34210089 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 02:35:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 22:35:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170232 OKZ000-170330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1211 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0932 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170232Z - 170330Z THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MCS AS IT MOVES E OF WW 495...MAINLY AFTER 03Z. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS OF 0225Z...VANCE AFB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED LEADING EDGE OF QUASI-LINEAR MCS FROM RENO...KINGMAN AND HARPER COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL KS SSWWD INTO ALFALFA...MAJOR...DEWEY AND BLAINE COUNTIES IN NWRN OK. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT REMAINS QUITE CLOSE TO PARENT CONVECTION OVER S-CNTRL KS WHERE RECENT SEVERE WIND GUSTS/WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED. FARTHER S...GUST FRONT HAS STARTED TO OUT RUN CONVECTIVE TOWERS BY ROUGHLY 10 MILES... SUGGESTING THAT SYSTEM COLD POOL IS BEGINNING TO OVERWHELM AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. RECENT MESONET OBSERVATION FROM ALFALFA COUNTY INDICATES THAT WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES E OF WW 495 INTO N-CNTRL OK. ..MEAD.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 36629743 36899738 36959674 36879623 35969635 35749698 35979756 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 03:09:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 23:09:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170307 TXZ000-170400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1212 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS...BIG COUNTRY INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494... VALID 170307Z - 170400Z THROUGH 05Z...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS E-CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW 494. SHOULD CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WW MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. AS OF 0250Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A NE-SW ORIENTED LINE OF TSTMS FROM JONES INTO NOLAN COUNTIES OF W-CNTRL TX WITH A GENERAL EWD MOVEMENT OF 30-35 KTS. ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED STORMS WERE BEING OBSERVED OVER KNOX AND TERRELL AND PECOS COUNTIES IN TX. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NEAR ABI IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL TX /DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F/ WHERE RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CAP. ADDITIONALLY...JAYTON TX PROFILER HAS BECOME MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OWING TO AN INCREASE AND VEERING OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL TO CONTINUE E OF ABI...PERHAPS TOWARD BWD WITH TIME. ELSEWHERE...SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM RE-DEVELOPMENT EXISTS OVER THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AS COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS RETREATING DRY LINE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...JAYTON PROFILER HAS BECOME MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS...SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION INDEED FORM. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND CAP STRENGTH WITH GRADUAL COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER. ..MEAD.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31200143 32090102 33170015 33259926 32799859 31859873 30989930 30569985 30560094 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 03:17:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 23:17:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170315 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-170415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1213 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL MN/WCNTRL WI/NE IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493... VALID 170315Z - 170415Z ...SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE BEYOND 04Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL WI/SE MN AND NCNTRL INTO NERN IA. ANOTHER WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED... LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BUBBLE HIGH ACROSS SW MN...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE TWIN CITIES AND DES MOINES RADARS INDICATE NEW STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NCNTRL IA INTO SCNTRL MN. SEVERE WINDS WERE REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS HANCOCK CO IA WITH THESE STORMS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS ERN MN/WI OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 45 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE CERTAINLY STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST ONE WAVE ACROSS NRN MN...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA...REDUCING MASS FLUX THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OVER THE REGION. BUT...PORTIONS OF SE MN/WRN WI ARE NOW IN A LOCAL CONFLUENCE ZONE WHICH MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS. ..TAYLOR.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 42689225 42899398 43969427 44689326 45959220 46269131 46129077 44379058 43559083 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 03:51:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 23:51:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170349 KSZ000-OKZ000-170445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1214 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL INTO SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 497... VALID 170349Z - 170445Z THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE E OF WW 497 BY 0430Z AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 0330Z...ICT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE LINE FROM CNTRL MARION COUNTY SSWWD INTO CNTRL SUMNER COUNTY WITH A SYSTEM MOTION OF ROUGHLY 265/35 KTS. STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LINE HAS RECENTLY MOVED THROUGH THE ICT AREA WHERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. ICT/VNX VWP DATA SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A 40-45 KT REAR INFLOW JET BELOW 2 KM AGL WHICH IS LIKELY ENHANCING DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM GUST FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS GUST FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE PARENT CONVECTION...SUGGESTING THE A GRADUAL UPSHEAR TILT TO THE LEADING UPDRAFT TOWERS. THUS...THERE MAY BE SOME TENDENCY FOR A DECREASE IN PEAK WIND GUSTS AS MCS SHIFTS E OF WW 497...THOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 37809726 38549710 38739637 38809570 37829534 37079571 36969655 37039721 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 04:21:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 00:21:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170419 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170419 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-170515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1215 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/NE KS/SW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496... VALID 170419Z - 170515Z ...SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED OVER THE REMAINDER OF WW 496...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY... STRONGEST PART OF SQUALL LINE AT 04Z EXTENDS FROM CNTRL KS SWD INTO OK. BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE IN ECNTRL NEB HAS STABILIZED WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S. SFC WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS EAST OF CNK/HJH. ..TAYLOR.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...GID... 40109692 40999755 41499703 41519589 40479560 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 04:25:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 00:25:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170424 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170423 OKZ000-TXZ000-170600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1216 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495... VALID 170423Z - 170600Z THROUGH 06Z...THE GREATEST THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST FROM GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I-40 AND W OF I-44. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITH TIME E OF WW 495. SRN PORTION OF QUASI-LINEAR MCS IN PROGRESS OVER CNTRL KS INTO N-CNTRL OK REMAINS MORE CELLULAR ACROSS W-CNTRL INTO SWRN OK AS OF 04Z. VWP FROM FREDRICK AFB INDICATES THAT KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AS BOTH LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY /I.E. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2/. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY OWING TO COOLING BOUNDARY-LAYER. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP IS STRENGTHENING IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER...THOUGH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. THUS...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. AS MORE INTENSE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SWRN OK APPROACHES THE CNTRL PART OF THE STATE ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN... 34639989 35389960 35679840 35829789 35709728 35039722 34089909 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 07:36:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 03:36:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170735 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170734 TXZ000-170930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1217 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498... VALID 170734Z - 170930Z SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 498. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX/IN AND TO THE SW OF WW 498. SELY LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITHIN MOIST /LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/ AND MODERATELY-UNSTABLE /AROUND 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ AIRMASS. THOUGH VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS NWD INTO NW TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...RESULTING IN AN EVEN LESS FAVORABLE WIND FIELD WITH TIME. THEREFORE...EXPECT A LOCAL THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...BEFORE DECREASING THROUGH SUNRISE. ..GOSS.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31829958 32149839 32069745 30279808 29710031 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 09:05:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 05:05:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170902 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170902 MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-171100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500... VALID 170902Z - 171100Z LIMITED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SWRN OK. MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO ERN OK ATTM. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE A SLOW WEAKENING...AS STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER ERN OK. MEANWHILE...A LIMITED THREAT FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE SWRN QUARTER OF OK -- WITHIN WW 500. THIS REGION REMAINS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER NOW CROSSING THE TX PNHDL...AND MODELS FORECAST AN INCREASE IN A WRN BRANCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THOUGH ANY STORM REDEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE...A LOCAL THREAT FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY A FEW STRONGER STORMS. ..GOSS.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN... 35129928 36979623 36959445 34309710 34299998 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 15:14:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 11:14:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 171512 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171512 LAZ000-TXZ000-171715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1219 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171512Z - 171715Z THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX GULF COAST THIS MORNING...AND PERHAPS INTO SWRN/SRN LA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS REGION WILL BE INCLUDED IN A SLGT RISK IN THE NEXT DAY ONE OUTLOOK AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. MATURE MCS WITH LARGE COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED UPSCALE AND ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW/CIRCULATION ACROSS SERN TX THIS MORNING. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE ADVANCING EAST AT ABOUT 30KT WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY MCV MOVING EAST INTO VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE TX GULF COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDING DATA REVEALS ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN STEEP THETA-E LAPSE RATES. GIVEN RELATIVELY MARGINAL DEEP SHEAR... GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS AS MCV AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL ACTIVITY DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX GULF COAST AND THE SABINE RIVER AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE THAN ISOLATED...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED. ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP... 28269613 28099691 28429710 29249621 30279554 31069537 31259511 31229460 31039389 30689335 30399299 29989253 29639254 29329331 29189373 28989450 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 16:56:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 12:56:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 171654 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171654 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-171830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1220 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...NRN WI...MI U.P. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171654Z - 171830Z THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WAS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN MN...NRN WI...AND PARTS OF THE U.P. OF MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PARTS OF THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE COVERED BY A WATCH SHORTLY. WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING INHIBITION WAS PROMPTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM EAST-CNTRL MN ACROSS NRN WI AT NOON. CONTINUED STRONG SURFACE HEATING ON THE SRN/SERN EDGE OF DEEP-LAYERED CLOUD BAND ACROSS MN...AND PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ON LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS WI...SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGION LIES BENEATH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE BETWEEN CNTRL PLAINS UPPER LOW AND LESS AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS ND. APPROACH OF THESE DISTURBANCE WILL AID LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. PRESENCE OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY COULD ALSO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IF CELLS CAN TRACK PREFERENTIALLY NEAR/ALONG THESE FEATURES. ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 47099060 47428812 47388770 46608618 45668774 45168886 44769030 44529110 44329222 44449310 44779370 45339361 46699258 46859180 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 17:59:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 13:59:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 171755 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171755 OKZ000-TXZ000-171900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1221 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX AND SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171755Z - 171900Z SEVERE TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN TX AND SWRN OK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF THESE AREAS. RAPID AIR MASS RECOVERY WAS UNDERWAY IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT OK/TX MCS ACTIVITY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MID LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WERE CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION OVER THE REGION WITH LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. CU FIELD HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND WAS DEEPENING NEAR WEAK FRONT AND OK MCS OUTFLOW INTERSECTION NEAR LTS. FARTHER SOUTH...CU FIELD WAS INCREASING NEAR THE WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM NE OF MAF TO NW OF SPS. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK INHIBITION ACROSS THE AREA...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION AND ALONG THE WEAK FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 20-30KT ATOP GENERALLY WEAK SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. MAGNITUDE OF CAPE/LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE OUTFLOW AND FRONT COULD SUSTAIN A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SUPERCELLS TRACKING ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS OK WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS RESULTING IN STRONGER SRH. IF HIGHER CAPE ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES ACROSS NWRN TX THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL UPDRAFT STRETCHING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34539751 32220007 32090099 32560167 33940085 35569957 35399834 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 18:36:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 14:36:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 171834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171834 LAZ000-TXZ000-171930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1222 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501... VALID 171834Z - 171930Z ARC OF VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION ON LEADING EDGE OF MATURE MCS COLD POOL CONTINUES DEVELOPING EAST INTO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE UPPER TX GULF COAST TO THE WRN LA BORDER. VIL AND LIGHTNING TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY BE STARTING TO WEAKEN AS ACTIVITY OUTRUNS STRONGER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. LIMITED SHEAR AND GENERALLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LINE SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL. WHILE ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER AND NEAR THE GULF COAST...ADDITIONAL WATCHES IN THIS REGION DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 29479379 29149570 30179430 31229403 32249419 32349290 30959268 29179219 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 19:13:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 15:13:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 171911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171911 OKZ000-172015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171911Z - 172015Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FROM SWRN OK NWD/EWD ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN OK. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. STORMS WERE INCREASING NEAR FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION IN SWRN OK. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM THIS AREA NEWD ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS/WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...FROM SWRN OK NEWD TO THE KS BORDER. POST MCS AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL SECTIONS OF OK WAS VERY MOIST AND SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES TO OVERCOME INHIBITION. WHILE MID LEVEL WLY FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS WAS CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST TO LOCALLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL SUPPORTED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...LOWER LFC/HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE UPDRAFT INFLOW LAYER WOULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34289750 35399958 36969838 36949587 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 20:29:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 16:29:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172027 MOZ000-KSZ000-172200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1224 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NERN KS AND NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172027Z - 172200Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/NERN KS AND NWRN MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM CNTRL KS/NEB BORDER TO SCNTRL KS. MEANWHILE LARGER SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD SUPPORT PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE LIFT. AIR MASS ACROSS ERN KS/NWRN MO HAS HEATED THROUGH THE LOWER 80S F. INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY WEAK/LIMITED...FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE LOW MAY INDUCE MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUGGESTED BY LATEST 18Z GUIDANCE FROM NAM-ETA AND NAM-WRF. BAND OF DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW OF 30-40KT ON THE SERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLY EVOLVING FROM INITIAL ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IF STORMS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS DEPICTED IN LATEST GUIDANCE. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 38429813 39469821 39859721 39879509 39339445 38349523 37629628 37319687 37289741 37309825 37569852 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 21:07:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 17:07:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172105 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172104 OKZ000-TXZ000-172230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503...504... VALID 172104Z - 172230Z INTENSE CONVECTION NEAR OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION AND WEAK LOW ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL OK WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WAS FLOWING NWD INTO THIS AREA WHERE BOUNDARY/CELL INTERACTIONS WERE OCCASIONALLY SUPPORTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IN GENERALLY WEAK DEEP SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR IN STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NWRN TX THROUGH THE EVENING. GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY MODEST 30-40KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A SEVERE MCS POSSIBLE PROPAGATING SWD/SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CNTRL/WRN TX DURING TH NIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32220237 36949860 36969590 35849588 35619536 34409561 33849645 31859803 30399939 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 21:20:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 17:20:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172117 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-172245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1226 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0417 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502... VALID 172117Z - 172245Z GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OVER FAR NWRN WI/WRN U.P. OF MI...POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO E-CNTRL MN. A MORE ISOLATED/LIMITED THREAT EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL WI...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE ERN U.P. OF MI. TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MOST VIGOROUS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE WW. ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE BEEN FIRING ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF A MESOLOW AROUND 40 E OF STC. MLCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SMALL SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES...WITH WET MICROBURST AND PULSE SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER E...TSTMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW ACROSS CNTRL WI SHORTLY IN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED IN THIS REGION BY MODEST WIND SHEAR /AROUND 20 KTS PER BLR PROFILER/ AND INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPES/...AS WELL AS OVERALL LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS. TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NON-EXISTENT ACROSS THE ERN U.P. OF MI E OF A MQT TO MNM LINE. RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FINE-LINE WHICH IS LIKELY SEPARATING A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE E...AND IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RUC/ACARS SOUNDINGS. THE WW MAY BE CLEARED EARLY IN THIS REGION. ..GRAMS.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44489162 44979261 46009271 46579218 46789076 47328786 46368424 45918435 45188671 44678857 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 23:38:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 19:38:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172336 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172336 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-180000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1227 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI/WRN U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502... VALID 172336Z - 180000Z SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN REGION OF BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED AND PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING FURTHER AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE LACK OF ORGANIZED FOCUS...ALONG WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GRAMS.. 06/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44539206 45889263 46889130 47388796 47138674 44978800 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 18 00:40:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 20:40:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180038 TXZ000-180245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503... VALID 180038Z - 180245Z THUNDERSTORMS OVER NWRN TX ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND SPREAD SEWD THROUGH CNTRL TX...REACHING PARTS OF S CNTRL AND SERN TX LATER THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WW 503 WILL BE REPLACED BY A NEW WW THAT WILL EXTEND FARTHER SE INTO CNTRL AND SERN TX BEFORE 02Z. EARLY THIS EVENING A CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS INCREASING IN VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN TX. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING SEWD THROUGH NWRN TX SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE NUMBER OF STORMS DEVELOPING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS CLUSTER TO EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. ONCE THIS OCCURS...SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KT VEERING TO WNWLY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE LEADING GUST FRONT AND SUPPORT A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO SUPPORT THE MCS CONTINUING SEWD OVERNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL TX IS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WNWLY OF 20 TO 30 KT AT 500 MB WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITHIN THE EVOLVING MCS. ..DIAL.. 06/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29639706 30249940 32240132 32689885 33469714 31999595 30759518 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 18 02:02:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 22:02:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180200 KSZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-180330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1229 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0900 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO THROUGH SWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505... VALID 180200Z - 180330Z LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH ERN KS...SWRN IA AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN MO. STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING E OF WW 505 BY 03Z AND THIS WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME OF 05Z. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW EAST OF WW 505. LINE OF STORMS FROM SWRN IA THROUGH ERN KS IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 25 KT. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE E OF WW 505 AFTER 03Z. THE 00Z RAOB DATA FROM TOPEKA INDICATES ONLY MARGINAL MLCAPE WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THIS HAS SERVED AS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT ENHANCED BY EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS INTO WRN MO WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST E OF WW 505. GIVEN THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...ANOTHER WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY. ..DIAL.. 06/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 37669630 39429599 41069577 40889497 39679480 37759531 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 18 04:27:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2006 00:27:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180425 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180425 TXZ000-180600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1230 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL AND S CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506... VALID 180425Z - 180600Z THREAT FOR PRIMARILY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW 506 AS MCS CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH CNTRL TX. LINEAR MCS WITH TRAILING COLD POOL EXTENDS FROM THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA SWWD TO NEAR BALLINGER IN CNTRL TX. THE LINE IS MOVING SEWD AT 25 TO 30 KT. SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THE LINE...AND THE STRONGER STORMS REMAIN CAPABLE OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. A BROAD AREA OF SELY 25 TO 30 KT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IMPINGING ON THE GUST FRONT/COLD POOL WILL MAINTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATION WITHIN THE MCS THROUGH CNTRL TX NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..DIAL.. 06/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31220072 31349893 31959748 32569632 32229563 31339576 30119802 30300057 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 18 07:12:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2006 03:12:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180710 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180710 TXZ000-180845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1231 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506... VALID 180710Z - 180845Z THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT HAS DECREASED IN AND NEAR WW 506...A THREAT FOR HAIL PERSISTS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BOWING LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING SEWD/SWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- MOVING S AND E ACROSS/OUT OF WW. THOUGH THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS LINEAR CONFIGURATION...RADAR INDICATES CONTINUED WEAKENING IN REFLECTIVITY. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECREASING. GREATEST THREAT REMAINS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW WITH MORE DISCRETE STORMS ON WRN FRINGE OF MCS...WHERE MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND STRONGER SHEAR ARE INDICATED. THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION -- POSSIBLY SPREADING S OF WW WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 06/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 32230074 32260036 31909926 30999884 30299907 29829970 30060071 31160105 31840106 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 01:45:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2006 21:45:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 190146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190145 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-190345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1235 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0845 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SRN IA AND EXTREME NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 190145Z - 190345Z SERN NEB THROUGH SRN IA AND NRN MO ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF STORMS MATERIALIZE...THEY MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. OVERALL THREAT IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INITIATION. ONE INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT...A WW MAY BE NEEDED. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WI SWWD THROUGH SRN IA INTO SRN NEB WHERE IT BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORM THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER SERN NEB S OF HASTINGS HAS DISSIPATED...BUT LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A LINE OF CUMULUS ALONG THE IA PORTION OF THE FRONT. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK FROM NERN NEB THROUGH MUCH OF IA APPEARS TO BE INDICATIVE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A SEWD MOVING UPPER JET. THIS ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD AND MAY BEGIN TO OVERTAKE THE PORTION OF THE FRONT IN SRN IA. DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DUE TO THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP FARTHER W ACROSS SERN NEB AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND WHERE DEVELOPING CLOUDS SUGGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY ALREADY BE INCREASING ALONG THAT PORTION OF THE FRONT. ..DIAL.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID... 40949910 40819612 41059357 41239209 40649242 39979919 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 02:20:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2006 22:20:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 190221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190221 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-190415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1236 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0921 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN IND...WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508... VALID 190221Z - 190415Z THREAT FOR SVR APPEARS TO BE WANING AND WW 508 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z WITH NO OTHER ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCES ANTICIPATED. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EARLIER SFC WAVE NEAR HUF HAS WASHED OUT AND ONLY WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE REMAINS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER CENTRAL/ECENTRAL IND FROM EARLIER LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN/ECENTRAL IND INTO SWRN OH REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCAPPED...PER 00Z ILN SOUNDING...DECREASING INSTABILITY AND LACK OF PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SUGGESTS THAT THE SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 508 VALID TIME /04Z/. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST /100 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH PER RECENT ILN VWP DATA/ AND THERE WILL REMAIN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WITH ANY STRONG/SHORT LIVED UPDRAFT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... 40828469 40278566 39438687 38828728 38648702 38658615 38788500 39578378 40758375 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 06:51:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 02:51:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 190652 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190651 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA/S CENTRAL AND SERN NEB/NRN KS/NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 190651Z - 190845Z EXPECT STORMS TO PERSIST -- ROUGHLY CENTERED ON THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY -- OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH LOCAL THREAT FOR HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONGER CELLS...WW NOT ANTICIPATED. ELONGATED CLUSTER OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SRN IA ATTM...WITHIN REGION OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. STORMS ARE ALSO INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS S CENTRAL NEB...WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF SURFACE FRONT. MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL JET AND UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH MODERATELY-STRONG MID-LEVEL WNWLY FLOW REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...ELEVATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ONLY A LIMITED HAIL THREAT. ..GOSS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD... 41629328 41079155 39759123 38699604 39300026 40030073 41089904 41999691 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 13:39:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 09:39:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191340 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191340 VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-191545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1238 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0840 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NY INTO PORTIONS OF VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191340Z - 191545Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. LATEST ANALYSES INDICATE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF MOIST CONVECTION NOW INCREASING OVER WRN NY AND NWRN PA THIS MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 80F NEAR SYR/UCA AND INTO THE NRN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE MODIFIED OBSERVED/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW TO MID 80F TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORMS. SBCAPE / NOW AROUND 1000 J/KG / SHOULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG IN ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. VWP/S FROM BGM AND BUF INDICATE SFC-6 KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT...WITH DEEP CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SITES GIVEN MORE WLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT AT BUF. NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE SHOULD SUPPORT LINEAR ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND SPREADS INTO ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 41977547 42157712 43357673 44897433 44837230 42797318 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 15:05:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 11:05:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191506 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191506 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-191630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IL ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN IND INTO SERN MI/NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191506Z - 191630Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING OVER FAR W-CENTRAL IL AND INTO SWRN MI THIS MORNING AHEAD OF STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GIVEN CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG SHEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS IND...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AIR MASS HAS YET TO SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS IND AND SRN LOWER MI THIS MORNING...YET DEEP ASCENT IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AXIS OF STRONGER HEATING FROM ERN IL INTO SWRN MI. SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES...WHERE RUC FORECAST AND MODIFIED-OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WILL OVERCOME MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER CAP. APPEARS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE INCREASING UNDER 40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS... THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 39468591 39318775 40118820 42948491 43468315 42448266 40208462 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 15:07:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 11:07:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191508 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191508 COR MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-191630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IL ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN IND INTO SERN MI/NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191508Z - 191630Z CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN FIRST PARAGRAPH THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING OVER FAR E-CENTRAL IL AND INTO SWRN MI THIS MORNING AHEAD OF STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GIVEN CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG SHEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS IND...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AIR MASS HAS YET TO SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS IND AND SRN LOWER MI THIS MORNING...YET DEEP ASCENT IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AXIS OF STRONGER HEATING FROM ERN IL INTO SWRN MI. SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES...WHERE RUC FORECAST AND MODIFIED-OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WILL OVERCOME MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER CAP. APPEARS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE INCREASING UNDER 40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS... THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 39468591 39318775 40118820 42948491 43468315 42448266 40208462 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 15:08:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 11:08:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191506 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191506 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-191630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IL ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN IND INTO SERN MI/NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191506Z - 191630Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING OVER FAR W-CENTRAL IL AND INTO SWRN MI THIS MORNING AHEAD OF STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GIVEN CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG SHEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS IND...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AIR MASS HAS YET TO SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS IND AND SRN LOWER MI THIS MORNING...YET DEEP ASCENT IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AXIS OF STRONGER HEATING FROM ERN IL INTO SWRN MI. SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES...WHERE RUC FORECAST AND MODIFIED-OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WILL OVERCOME MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER CAP. APPEARS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE INCREASING UNDER 40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS... THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 39468591 39318775 40118820 42948491 43468315 42448266 40208462  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 15:10:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 11:10:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191508 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191508 COR MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-191630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IL ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN IND INTO SERN MI/NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191508Z - 191630Z CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN FIRST PARAGRAPH THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING OVER FAR E-CENTRAL IL AND INTO SWRN MI THIS MORNING AHEAD OF STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GIVEN CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG SHEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS IND...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AIR MASS HAS YET TO SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS IND AND SRN LOWER MI THIS MORNING...YET DEEP ASCENT IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AXIS OF STRONGER HEATING FROM ERN IL INTO SWRN MI. SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES...WHERE RUC FORECAST AND MODIFIED-OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WILL OVERCOME MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER CAP. APPEARS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE INCREASING UNDER 40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS... THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 39468591 39318775 40118820 42948491 43468315 42448266 40208462  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 17:29:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 13:29:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191730 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191730 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-191930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1240 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NH..WRN ME..MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191730Z - 191930Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NRN MA NNEWD ACROSS WRN ME. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF MA/NH WITH STRONG HEATING ALSO ACROSS ME. MLCAPE AXIS IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG HAS ALREADY BECOME ESTABLISHED AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT SHEAR IS IN PLACE FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS ACCORDING TO REGIONAL VWPS. SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE IN TWO MODES...ONE WILL BE AS ONGOING STORMS SPREAD EWD OUT OF NY WITH ANOTHER ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS NOW INCREASING NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NH/WRN ME AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 42257135 42497262 45217118 47386918 47136790 45056911 43377041 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 18:14:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 14:14:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191814 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-192015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1241 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO ACROSS CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191814Z - 192015Z AREA OF MAXIMUM SURFACE CONVERGENCE BEING MONITORED FROM NERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF ACTIVITY INCREASES OVER THIS AREA. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SMALL CB FORMING ALONG E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS FAR NRN MO INTO SERN NEB. STORM IS INITIATING INVOF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX NOW SHIFTING ACROSS SERN IA. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE ONCE TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER CENTRAL/SRN IL. INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN A NW-SE ORIENTATION ACROSS CENTRAL IL AS AREAS TO THE NORTH UNDERGO STRONGER DRYING DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH ANY PERSISTENT STORM. THOUGH WIND PROFILE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT. THUS...IF A STORM CAN TAKE ROOT INTO DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH RIGHT MOVERS DEVELOPING INTO GREATER INSTABILITY OVER SRN HALF OF IL. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40349313 40599261 40319000 40188758 39088750 38658878 39389146 39949297 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 18:42:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 14:42:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191842 NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-192045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1242 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NY...NERN PA...VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509... VALID 191842Z - 192045Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS INCREASED OVER UPSTATE NY INTO MUCH OF VT AHEAD OF EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NY. CONTINUE WW 509 AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THOUGH COUNTIES WEST OF THE FRONT CAN LIKELY BE DROPPED FROM THE WATCH. AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND INTO ERN NY/CENTRAL PA WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90F AHEAD OF BROKEN LINE OF STORMS PRODUCING EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING FROM NW OF BTV TO 25 W GFL TO JUST E OF IPT. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO WHERE SSELY SURFACE WINDS ARE INCREASING LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. VWP FROM ALB INDICATES 40 KT SFC-6 KM SHEAR AND 0-3 KM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITHIN THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT WHERE STORMS ARE MAINTAINING MORE DISCRETE CHARACTER AS OPPOSED TO PERSISTENT LINEAR SEGMENT NOW MOVING TOWARDS NWRN VT. WIND DAMAGE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 41397414 41187627 41477656 42977517 44957343 44867123 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 19:04:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 15:04:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191905 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191904 NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-192000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1243 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...CENTRAL/NRN OH...NWRN PA...FAR WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191904Z - 192000Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF WW 510 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN OH TOWARDS NWRN PA/FAR WRN NY. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED IN TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON...ONE OVER SERN LOW MI INTO WRN LAKE ERIE WITH ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL IND. EACH OF THESE CLUSTERS IS PERSISTING AND MOVING ESEWD WITHIN WW 510...WHERE AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. MLCAPE MAX AROUND 2000 J/KG IS PREVALENT OVER LAKE ERIE ATTM...WHERE STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS IS SHIFTING ACROSS WRN LAKE ERIE IN THE SHAPE OF A SMALL BOW ECHO. OTHER MORE DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SWRN ONTARIO. SEVERE THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR WW IS THEREFORE GREATEST ACROSS NRN OH INTO FAR WRN NY/NWRN PA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. SEVERE THREAT IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SOUTHEAST OF WW 510 INTO SERN IND/SWRN OH...THOUGH CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW MAY PUSH SEVERE THREAT INTO MORE OF SRN IND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND... 38808715 39928438 42368165 42977811 38428508 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 20 17:21:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 13:21:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201721 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201721 WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-201845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1258 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE IL..SRN IND...KY...SWRN VA...WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201721Z - 201845Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE ACROSS KY AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND WWD THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL IL INTO NRN KY AND NEWD INTO WRN PA. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. STORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NRN IL. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE MOSTLY UNDIRECTIONAL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR ABOVE 700 MB WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG MULTICELL STORMS. THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 06/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 36748197 36718636 37678863 38848812 38238619 38238383 38128194 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 20 18:53:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 14:53:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201854 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-202030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1259 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY...WRN NEB...NE CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201854Z - 202030Z THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 20Z TO 21Z ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SCNTRL NEB EXTENDING SWWD INTO SRN CO WITH A DUAL-CENTERED SFC LOW OVER NW KS AND SE CO. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT PRESENT FROM FAR SE WY EXTENDING SSEWD TO NEAR GOODLAND KS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE MEDICINE BOWS AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN...MOVING INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SE WY...NE CO AND WRN NEB SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-45 KT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 06/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... 40630227 40260375 40750509 41390540 42340523 42910412 42720243 41580173 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 20 19:56:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 15:56:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201956 KSZ000-COZ000-202200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1260 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN CO INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201956Z - 202200Z ISOLATED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT HAS BECOME VERY HOT WITHIN SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH FROM NRN KS SWWD INTO SERN CO AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WHERE STRONG MIXING WITH LOW LEVEL JET HAS CAUSED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO ERODE. THIS EROSION WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY NEWD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN KS AS HEATING CONTINUES. VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40-55 F RANGE TO PRODUCE SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. STRONG WARM ADVECTION PROFILES IN THE LOW LEVELS AND MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST MULTICELLULAR STORMS ARE LIKELY. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND MIXING DOWN OF LOW LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES MAY CONTAIN HAIL ..JEWELL.. 06/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38969783 37570128 37070273 37510321 37960321 38760344 39260126 39909985 39929914 39949765 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 20 20:02:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 16:02:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202003 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-202200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1261 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MO...SE IA...WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202003Z - 202200Z SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS SE IA...NE MO AND WRN IL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 21Z ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE FROM CNTRL IL INTO SRN IA AND ERN NEB. A MOIST AXIS WITH LOW 70 F DEWPOINTS EXIST FROM ST LOUIS EXTENDING NWWD INTO FAR NW MO WHERE STRONG UNSTABLE AIR IS PRESENT. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS NCNTRL MO JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE CAP AND INTO THE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR...SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. IF THIS OCCURS...MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. ..BROYLES.. 06/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 38689132 39009235 39889294 40729297 41409219 41309070 40348990 39129007 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 20 22:19:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 18:19:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202219 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-210015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1262 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0519 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NERN IA...SERN MN...SWRN WI AND NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202219Z - 210015Z POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY FROM CNTRL AND NERN IA INTO SERN MN...SWRN WI AND NWRN IL. A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW WILL BE NEEDED IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR INITIATION IS IMMINENT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN IA SEWD THROUGH CNTRL IL. THIS BOUNDARY IS LIFTING SLOWLY NWD THIS EVENING ALONG A 40+ KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET. PARTIAL CLEARING IN WAKE OF MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. STEEP LAPSE RATES...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S HAVE RESULTED IN AN AXIS OF 2500 MLCAPE FROM WRN AND S CNTRL IA SEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN IL. PLUME OF WARM AIR IN THE 850 MB TO 700 MB LAYER HAS ADVECTED NEWD CONTRIBUTING TO A CAP. THIS LENDS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN AND IF STORMS WILL INITIATE. MCV THAT ACCOMPANIED THE MORNING CONVECTION HAS MOVED EWD INTO IL AND WI WITH TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE NRN IA...SRN MN INTO SWRN WI ON NRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CONTAINING LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR AND N OF THE WARM FRONT. ..DIAL.. 06/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 40559021 41699280 42979626 44659285 42538929 40778898 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 20 22:49:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 18:49:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202249 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202249 VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-210045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1263 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0549 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN IL...WRN IN...CENTRAL AND WRN KY...MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202249Z - 210045Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVER MUCH OF KY INTO MIDDLE TN...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. FARTHER W...NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER SERN IL AND WRN INDIANA LATE EVENING WITH HAIL AND WIND POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS KY/TN ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH TIME AS LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE AND WITH LACK OF FORCING MECHANISM. FARTHER NW...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROFILES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS IL AND UPSTREAM OVER MO...THUS SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION. ..JEWELL.. 06/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 39908907 40978814 41058702 39328594 37028343 35888365 35068456 35138624 37218768 38218954 39258975 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 20 23:16:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 19:16:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202316 SDZ000-NEZ000-210045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1264 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202316Z - 210045Z SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO SRN SD. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...A FEW MORE STORMS MAY FORM OVER SWRN SD. THUS A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LEFT MOVING SUPERCELL OVER NW NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO SD. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS SRN SD WITH A BROAD ZONE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR DUE TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN SEVERE CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY LEFT MOVING STORMS.IN ADDITION...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS WRN SD BENEATH STRONG COOLING ALOFT. ..JEWELL.. 06/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 43000276 42990404 43830400 44560065 44459976 43809885 42979969 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 00:22:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 20:22:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210022 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1265 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND WRN KS / FAR ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210022Z - 210115Z A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AND PROPAGATE EWD OUT OF CO AND INTO SWRN NEBRASKA/NWRN KS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR LONG LIVED CONVECTION. LIFT WILL PERSIST ON NOSE OF SLY LOW LEVEL JET FURTHER AIDING STORMS AS THEY TREK EWD ACROSS KS AND NEBRASKA. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROFILES BENEATH MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR MOSTLY MULTICELLS...BUT A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW. ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38510332 39900189 40650057 41030010 40889817 39989802 39149792 38639940 38590103 38620207 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 02:12:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 22:12:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210212 KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-210415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1266 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0912 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...WRN...CENTRAL AND SRN NEB...SRN SD AND NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 522...523...524... VALID 210212Z - 210415Z CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER NERN CO /WW 522/ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD INTO SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS...EVENTUALLY MOVING ITO WW 524 BETWEEN 03-05Z. THE MAIN SVR THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS. THE SVR THREAT OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW 522 /WRN NEB/ APPEARS TO BE WANING AND THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED FROM WATCH IN THE NEXT HR OR SO. FURTHER NORTH OVER WW 523 /SRN SD/ ADDITIONAL SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SWRN SD AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF NRN ROCKIES. ACTIVITY ONGOING OVER SCENTRAL SD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF WW 523. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW OVER SERN CO NEWD INTO SCENTRAL/SERN NEB. LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SUPPORT ONGOING SVR STORM CLUSTER AS IT MOVES OUT OF NERN CO...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS. CLUSTER/S OF SVR STORMS SHOULD THEN PROPAGATE EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SCENTRAL/SERN NEB...NCENTRAL/NERN KS LATER THIS EVENING GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 524 BEFORE 05Z. FURTHER NORTH...LARGE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER NWRN NEB. DESPITE INFLUX OF STEEP LAPSE RATE AIR INTO THE REGION AND WEAK LIFT ON SRN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...THE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE NERN QUARTER OF WW 522 WILL LIKELY REMAIN STABLE ENOUGH THAT NEW SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REMNANT LEFT SPLITTING SUPERCELL OVER WW 523 SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS OVER SERN SD...SO A NEW WW EAST OF  000 ACUS11 KWNS 210212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210212 KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-210415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1266 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0912 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...WRN...CENTRAL AND SRN NEB...SRN SD AND NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 522...523...524... VALID 210212Z - 210415Z CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER NERN CO /WW 522/ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD INTO SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS...EVENTUALLY MOVING ITO WW 524 BETWEEN 03-05Z. THE MAIN SVR THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS. THE SVR THREAT OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW 522 /WRN NEB/ APPEARS TO BE WANING AND THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED FROM WATCH IN THE NEXT HR OR SO. FURTHER NORTH OVER WW 523 /SRN SD/ ADDITIONAL SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SWRN SD AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF NRN ROCKIES. ACTIVITY ONGOING OVER SCENTRAL SD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF WW 523. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW OVER SERN CO NEWD INTO SCENTRAL/SERN NEB. LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SUPPORT ONGOING SVR STORM CLUSTER AS IT MOVES OUT OF NERN CO...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS. CLUSTER/S OF SVR STORMS SHOULD THEN PROPAGATE EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SCENTRAL/SERN NEB...NCENTRAL/NERN KS LATER THIS EVENING GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 524 BEFORE 05Z. FURTHER NORTH...LARGE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER NWRN NEB. DESPITE INFLUX OF STEEP LAPSE RATE AIR INTO THE REGION AND WEAK LIFT ON SRN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...THE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE NERN QUARTER OF WW 522 WILL LIKELY REMAIN STABLE ENOUGH THAT NEW SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REMNANT LEFT SPLITTING SUPERCELL OVER WW 523 SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS OVER SERN SD...SO A NEW WW EAST OF WW 523 IS NOT ANTICIPATED. NEW SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER REMAINS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OVER SWRN SD AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF NRN WY/SERN MT AND SUPPORTS LARGE SCALE LIFT ON UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG NRN EDGE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER WRN NEB. ..CROSBIE.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU... 44800160 43080353 42940212 41390212 40610241 40120322 38710327 38790101 38709979 38689748 41529692 41620043 43070065 44729845 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 06:38:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 02:38:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210639 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210638 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-210845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1267 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IN/WRN OH/N CENTRAL KY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 210638Z - 210845Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN INDIANA...WHERE MARGINAL HAIL THREAT EXISTS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR -- AS A WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE IF MORE EXPANSIVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND SUBSEQUENT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN INDIANA...ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE NOSE OF THE WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS OCCURRING. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST THAT STORMS ARE ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER -- AND THUS MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY ISOLATED STORM SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF MARGINAL HAIL. HOWEVER...GIVEN SHALLOW NATURE OF THE STABLE LAYER...AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION ON THE MESOSCALE COULD RESULT IN A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ANY SIGNS OF MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION...WHICH COULD SUBSEQUENTLY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... 41338528 40598370 39648412 38138419 37848547 38308633 40228652 40978639 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 06:49:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 02:49:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210650 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210649 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-210815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...IA...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525... VALID 210649Z - 210815Z LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEB WILL LIKELY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF IA/MO OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE WW. RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEB MOVING EASTWARD AT 25-30 KT. OVERALL INTENSITY OF STORMS HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS DIURNAL COOLING WEAKENED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL REMAIN IN AN AXIS OF VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCAPE OVER 2000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH 35-40 KT WESTERLY 500MB FLOW AND 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. MORE IMPORTANTLY...SHEAR PROFILES...SIZE OF MCS...AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION/ ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTIVE COLD POOL FORMATION. WE WILL MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY FOR SIGNS OF UPSCALE ORGANIZATION WHICH WOULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. ..HART.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 41629625 42179503 42399216 41819100 40469100 39849192 39799430 39879611 40619655 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 11:27:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 07:27:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211127 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211127 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-211330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1269 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 211127Z - 211330Z CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES DEVELOPING NWD ACROSS ERN IA/NRN IL/SRN WI. STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY-GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS SRN WI...BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE ERN IA/CENTRAL AND NRN IL/NRN MO REGION WITH TIME. 40 TO 50 KT WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH A VERY SHALLOW...NOCTURNALLY-STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED FROM NEB EWD INTO NRN IL/FAR SRN WI. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLY-STRONG WIND FIELD VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO WLY AT 40 TO 50 KT AT MID-LEVELS HAS SUPPORTED TRANSIENT SEVERE STORMS -- WITH HAIL AND A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS. AREA OF STORMS HAS SHOWN NWD PROPAGATION WITH TIME ACROSS ERN IA AND INTO SRN WI DESPITE WLY MEAN FLOW/CELL MOTION -- APPARENTLY DUE TO A NWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH STORMS THUS MOVING AWAY FROM MORE FAVORABLE REGION OF WARM ADVECTION AND INTO A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS...EXPECT THREAT FOR HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIMITED. MEANWHILE...DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VIGOROUS/PERSISTENT CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY-HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS SERN WI OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING ACROSS KS/NEB ATTM...WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS CIRCULATION NOW CROSSING THE MO VALLEY INTO SWRN IA ACCORDING TO RADAR LOOP. ATTM...GREATEST THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO EXIST ALONG SRN FRINGE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...AS UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER MOVES EWD AND INTERACTS WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON SRN FRINGE OF THE MCS. WITH SWRN MOST CELLS WITHIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER -- ACROSS SERN IA -- RECENTLY EXHIBITING A MORE ELY MOVEMENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PORTION OF THE MCS FOR SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL ONSET OF A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT WHICH WOULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43808910 43578793 42038689 40678717 39798948 39699404 40579476 41899356 43349156 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 13:32:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 09:32:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211332 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211332 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-211500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1270 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0832 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211332Z - 211500Z THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE STORM ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED ACROSS SWRN IA AND THIS IS CREATING VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SUSTAINED THIS MORNING WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41079417 40799715 41149821 41769839 42519805 42889625 42789420 41909364 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 15:31:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 11:31:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211532 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211532 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-211730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1271 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA...FAR NRN IL...SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211532Z - 211730Z THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AS A DEVELOPING MCS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO FAR NRN IL AND NRN IND. AN MCS IS ONGOING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL MOVE EWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN WI AND IL WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE MCS. IN ADDITION...A 50 KT JET MID-LEVEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER ERN IA WILL INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT REMAIN NEAR THE BOUNDARY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42328832 42129122 42649219 43809192 43918852 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 16:22:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 12:22:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211623 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211622 MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-211745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1272 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MN...NRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211622Z - 211745Z A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN MAY EXPAND SWD INTO NRN WI OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ERN MANITOBA EXTENDING SSWWD INTO ERN ND. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS NRN MN AND IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF STORMS ONGOING IN THE ARROWHEAD. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND JUST AHEAD OF A 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX WHICH IS CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. AS A RESULT...A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE AND MAY EXPAND SWD ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO NRN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE IF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN FURTHER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH... 45739125 45959233 46379259 47619203 48129135 47928999 47428985 45939058 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 16:38:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 12:38:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211639 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211638 NCZ000-VAZ000-211815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1273 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...SE VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211638Z - 211815Z A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NC AND FAR SE VA. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN VA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS ERN NC INTO CNTRL SC AND CNTRL GA. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE TROUGH ARE IN THE 70S F AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVEL0PING ALONG THE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING AND INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOWN BY RUC ANALYSIS OVER WRN VA. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NC SHOW ONLY ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUBSTANTIAL VEERING EXISTS BELOW 700 MB. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 34697608 34487734 35327855 36317849 36897695 35947549 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 17:19:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 13:19:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211719 ILZ000-IAZ000-211845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL IA...FAR NW IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526... VALID 211719Z - 211845Z THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS WW 526. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER CNTRL IA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE UPPER 60S F CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. AT UPPER-LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ANALYZED BY THE RUC OVER CNTRL WI. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CNTRL IA AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN IA. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON THE SLATER IA PROFILER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW 526 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN...DMX... 40639154 40689341 41029422 42149427 42639321 42509108 41879026 41019044 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 17:57:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 13:57:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211758 COZ000-211930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1275 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211758Z - 211930Z CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL CO. AS THE STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE WITH A COLD FRONT BACKED UP AGAINST THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND FRONT RANGE. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE COLORADO SPRINGS AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE SURROUNDING PEAKS AND MOVE EWD INTO THE COLORADO PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION NEAR COLORADO SPRINGS IS DEVELOPING NEAR A MAXIMA IN MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ACCORDING TO THE RUC AND ALONG A THERMAL GRADIENT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S F JUST SOUTH OF THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA. THE HIGH SFC TEMPS ARE CREATING LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 40 DEGREES F IN PLACES SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP SUGGESTING HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37550319 37640484 38670512 39930478 39970336 39440289 38580293 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 18:06:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 14:06:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211807 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211806 MIZ000-WIZ000-211930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI / U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211806Z - 211930Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADO WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NRN WI AND WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. A WW APPEARS LIKELY. STRONG COOLING ALOFT WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ACROSS NRN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG COLD FRONT/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS NWRN WI...AND WILL INTENSIFY WITH TIME. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT/STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT STRONG...IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR. ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46079138 46959042 47548773 46508641 45748702 44678792 44739178 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 18:08:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 14:08:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211808 MIZ000-WIZ000-211945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI / U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211808Z - 211945Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NRN WI AND WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. A WW APPEARS LIKELY. STRONG COOLING ALOFT WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ACROSS NRN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG COLD FRONT/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS NWRN WI...AND WILL INTENSIFY WITH TIME. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT/STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT STRONG...IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR. ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46079138 46959042 47548773 46508641 45748702 44678792 44739178 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 18:57:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 14:57:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211858 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211857 FLZ000-212130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1277 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211857Z - 212130Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL DIAMETERS OF 0.75-1.00 IN. WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE. RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-9.0 C AT 500 MB/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE STORMS. MEAN ELY FLOW NEAR 10 KTS IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM SUGGEST STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TOWARD THE W. ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 27338084 25168051 25168112 26448184 27698271 28668267 28808191 28698143 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 19:29:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 15:29:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211928 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-212100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1278 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IL...NRN IND...NW OH...SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 527... VALID 211928Z - 212100Z THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN NRN IL...NRN IND AND NW OH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS THE STORMS DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 21Z ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN WI...SRN LOWER MI INTO WCNTRL OH. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CUMULUS FIELD EXPANDING ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS VERY WEAK ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND STORM INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED OVER NE IL AND IS RESULTING IN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. AS STORMS INITIATE...RAPID DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING IF A LINEAR MCS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 40438437 40058863 40728938 41548931 41968861 42238654 42228419 41368355  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 20:21:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 16:21:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212019 MIZ000-212145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1279 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212019Z - 212145Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN LOWER MI WITH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOW MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE MCS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WSR-88D VWPS CURRENTLY SHOW 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NRN LOWER MI SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE MCS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT. ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 43488473 43658652 44568719 45358631 45458431 44768307 43708348  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 20:25:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 16:25:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212024 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-212300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1280 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0324 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SW KS...ERN OK PANHANDLE AND NRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212024Z - 212300Z SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL INITIATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. A WW WILL LIKELY SOON. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE INCREASED DUE TO PERSISTENT SLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DIFFUSE STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED NE-SW ACROSS KS. THE STRONGEST HEATING AND STEEPEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST ACROSS FAR SWRN KS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND THIS IS WHERE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AS CAPPING IS STRONGER FARTHER E. GIVEN VERY LARGE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF 20-35 KTS IS NOT OPTIMAL FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE FROM SWRN AND CENTRAL KS INTO NRN KS...WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR LEFT-MOVERS. FARTHER S INTO OK AND TX...DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY GIVEN VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENHANCING OUTFLOW. ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 39489704 38439694 37939749 37249794 36359951 35720028 35170094 34590172 34420258 34520295 34950305 36280233 36720207 37320163 37950112 38500073 39329982 39959846 39909751 39769718  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 21:25:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 17:25:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212125 OHZ000-MIZ000-212200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1281 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0425 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI / NRN-CENTRAL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212125Z - 212200Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR SERN LOWER MI INTO PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL OH. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE NERN AND SERN PARTS OF WW 530. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE... GIVEN MOIST SWLY FLOW. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS SERN LOWER MI INDICATED LIKELIHOOD FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS BECOMING SEVERE AS NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO SERN LOWER MI AND NRN/CENTRAL OH. ..PETERS.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41578431 42028432 42718405 42648311 41868276 41448179 40718182 39938200 39938303 40108390 41038385 41438400 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 21:37:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 17:37:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212138 MIZ000-WIZ000-212315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1282 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0438 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WI...UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 528... VALID 212138Z - 212315Z THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND CONTINUES OVER ERN WI AS WELL AS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN U.P. OF MI. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY SURVIVE E OF CURRENT WW...BUT ANOTHER WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STORMS HAVE REMAINED RATHER ISOLATED WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT NOTED OVER NERN WI AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERING...AND DEWPOINTS DECREASING...TEMPERATURES/LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN HIGH THUS INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE. GIVEN STRONG WLY SHEAR VECTORS AND CONTINUED FORCING WITH UPPER TROUGH...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED. ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...ARX... 44978324 44368326 44548664 44198770 44189009 47278821 46908476 45908360 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 23:25:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 19:25:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212326 KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-220100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1285 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 529... VALID 212326Z - 220100Z SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND HAVE MERGED INTO LARGE CLUSTER ACROSS SERN CO...AND WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW WITH HIGH WIND THREAT. ASIDE FROM THIS CLUSTER...MORE DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS ELY SFC-850 FLOW PERSISTS AND BRINGS HIGHER DEWPOINTS WWD. DEPARTURE OF MAIN CLUSTER MAY ALLOW MASS FIELDS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CO. DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED ON RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. E OF THE WW INTO W CENTRAL KS...THREAT OF SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL WILL EXIST IF CO STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM NWD AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 37000205 36960501 39980497 39990361 38620198 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 00:25:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 20:25:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220025 OHZ000-MIZ000-220130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI / NRN-CENTRAL INTO ERN OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 532... VALID 220025Z - 220130Z SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS WW 532 THIS EVENING. NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WW INTO ERN PARTS OF OH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION PER INCREASING SWLY LLJ ACROSS OH VALLEY IS CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS EWD INTO ERN OH. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN ESTABLISHED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM NWRN OH EWD ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE... REACHING NRN ERIE COUNTY. CURRENT TRACK OF THIS LEAD ACTIVITY SHOWED STORMS MOVING EAST OF WW 532 INTO LORAIN COUNTY BETWEEN 2330- 01Z. 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ATOP SWLY 30-35 KT LLJ ARE MAINTAINING STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES FROM W-E. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS LOCATED NORTH OF THE SERN LOWER MI/NWRN OH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT...GIVEN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD THROUGH LOWER MI AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX... 40468379 41718417 42718403 43128263 42878249 41648233 41608134 41878072 41248059 40428077 40238145 40308285 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 00:45:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 20:45:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220046 KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-220245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1287 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...MUCH OF KS...SERN NEBRASKA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 531...533... VALID 220046Z - 220245Z THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY OVER MOST OF KS AND SERN NEBRASKA...WITH SMALLER HAIL LIKELY OVER TX. DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE IN THE WATCHES. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND SERN CO STORM CLUSTER. NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS FORMED OVER NERN CO...ESSENTIALLY LINKED UP WITH ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY ENTER WRN KS. TO THE SE..SEVERE STORMS PERSIS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SERN NEB. INTO SWRN KS...AND ALONG DRYLINE INTO TX PANHANDLE. RAPID DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN KS WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE NEXT FEW HOURS. TO THE SOUTH...STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL PERSIST AS WELL GIVEN SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AMPLE FEED OF INSTABILITY NWD. LATER IN THE NIGHT...STORM CLUSTER COULD MERGE TOGETHER INTO A LARGER MCS...SHIFTING SEWD TOWARD THE ICT AREA AND INTO NRN OK LATE...WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT. 01Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK WILL BE SHIFTED EAST TO REFLECT LATEST THINKING. ..JEWELL.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB... 34759995 34740038 34320042 34360204 34740207 34710296 36940298 36990207 38240205 38280019 39140008 39159959 40029964 40029833 40359825 40359737 40699733 40749691 41079685 41069640 40839642 40789581 40169542 39969526 39679532 39649549 39449552 39429512 38979513 38959499 38739504 38719548 38379557 38389586 38129592 38029725 37869725 37919762 37689783 37329788 37339827 37059834 36959995 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 02:08:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 22:08:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220207 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-220230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1288 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0907 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MI/NERN IND/NWRN OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 530... VALID 220207Z - 220230Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MI...NERN IND AND NWRN OH THROUGH 03Z. WRN MOST STORMS...NOW LOCATED OVER CALHOUN COUNTY MI AND ALLEN/WELLS COUNTIES IND SHOULD MOVE EAST OF WW 530 JUST AFTER 03Z ALLOWING THIS WW TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. UNTIL 03Z...AIR MASS ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 530 REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AT 40-50 KT SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH 03Z. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... 40448532 41378505 42418521 42768507 42768411 41438397 40568392 40178409 40358502  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 02:10:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 22:10:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220209 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-220415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1289 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0909 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NWRN KS/FAR SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 529...535... VALID 220209Z - 220415Z THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN LIMITED FOR THE REMAINDER OF WW 529 THROUGH THE EXPIRATION TIME /03Z/ OVER THE FRONT RANGE NERN CO. FURTHER EAST...CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NERN CO WITH LEFT AND RIGHT SPLITS MOVING NEWD/SEWD RESPECTIVELY INTO FAR SWRN NEB/NWRN KS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. NRN HALF OF WW 529 OVER NERN CO HAS NOT BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFIED DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT MOVED ACROSS SERN CO INTO SWRN/WCENTRAL KS. MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER WRN CO AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG PER THE 00Z DNR SOUNDING/ SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HR OR SO ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO. LONG TERM SVR THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HIGH...SO A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO REPLACE WW 529. HOWEVER...WW 529 MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY PER WFO DISCRETION. FURTHER EAST OVER FAR ERN CO..NWRN KS AND SWRN NEB...GLD VWP AND MCK PROFILER DATA SHOWS MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR /35-40 KTS/ WITH STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS. SPLITTING SUPERCELLS HAVE RESULTED WITH THE MAIN SVR THREAT OVER WW 535 REMAINING ACROSS FAR ECENTRAL/NERN CO THROUGH 03Z. SUPERCELL STROM MOTIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SLOW DUE TO ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW...LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND THREAT WITH THESE CELLS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH NWRN KS/FAR SWRN NEB UNTIL AFTER 03Z. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SWRN KS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD INTO SRN PORTION OF WW 535. MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DMGG WINDS DUE TO LINEAR NATURE OF STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 40140131 40010344 39990487 38920466 38430429 38280265 38379948 40209962  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 02:44:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 22:44:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220245 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-220445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1290 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0945 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES...NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 531... VALID 220245Z - 220445Z OUTFLOW COLLISIONS OVER SWRN KS AND THE NRN/ERN TX PANHANDLES MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL SVR THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 531 EXPIRATION TIME. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ORGANIZING OVER THE NERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN OK...MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR THREAT AS IT MOVES EWD INTO NRN OK. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW OVER THIS AREA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PRESSURE RISES OVER THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE...WHERE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING. CONVECTIVE LINE WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZING IN NWRN OK. HOWEVER INTERPOLATION OF THE 00Z OUN/DDC SOUNDINGS SHOWS WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CINH SHOULD EXIST OVER NRN OK. HOWEVER IF COLD POOL IS DEEP ENOUGH THEN WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/INFLOW CONVECTIVE LINE MAY BE SUSTAINED OR INCREASE IN STRENGTH. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...SVR THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW OVER NRN OK. FURTHER WEST...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE MAY MERGE WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AND SUPPORT RENEWED ISOLATED SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT BUT THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE. OVER SWRN KS...MOST OF THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER...BUT COLLAPSING TSTMS MAY SUPPORT DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE SVR THREAT OVER WW 531 IS ANTICIPATED TO WANE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAK FORCING...SO WW 531 SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 38099953 38190129 38060155 36190224 35610116 35550055 35499780 35589732 36679670 37349783 37299975 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 03:25:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 23:25:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220325 OHZ000-MIZ000-220400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1291 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI AND NORTH CENTRAL OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 532... VALID 220325Z - 220400Z SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO EXIT MUCH OF WW 532 BY 04Z. THE SERN PART OF THIS WW FROM CRAWFORD/MARION COUNTIES TO ASHLAND TO KNOW COUNTIES MAY REQUIRE A LOCAL WFO EXTENTION GIVEN THAT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD NOT EXIT THIS PART OF WW 532 UNTIL 05Z. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A COUPLE OF LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NRN OH...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING TO THE ESE AT 30-40 KT. THESE LINES OF STORMS ARE TRACKING ESEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED FROM THE SOUTHWEST PER A 35 KT SWLY LLJ AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM SRN IL/IND INTO SWRN-SRN OH. GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AS WAS EVIDENT AT FDY AROUND 03Z WITH A RECORDED SEVERE WIND GUST OF 53 KT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS SERN LOWER MI AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL OH IN THE WAKE OF THE WRN MOST LINE OF STORMS...GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AND INSTABILITY REMAINING SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41748239 40848213 40188232 40398339 40258385 42758419 43158244 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 03:27:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 23:27:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220328 COR OHZ000-MIZ000-220400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1291 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI AND NORTH CENTRAL OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 532... VALID 220328Z - 220400Z CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN FIRST PARAGRAPH SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO EXIT MUCH OF WW 532 BY 04Z. THE SERN PART OF THIS WW FROM CRAWFORD/MARION COUNTIES TO ASHLAND TO KNOX COUNTIES MAY REQUIRE A LOCAL WFO EXTENTION GIVEN THAT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD NOT EXIT THIS PART OF WW 532 UNTIL 05Z. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A COUPLE OF LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NRN OH...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING TO THE ESE AT 30-40 KT. THESE LINES OF STORMS ARE TRACKING ESEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED FROM THE SOUTHWEST PER A 35 KT SWLY LLJ AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM SRN IL/IND INTO SWRN-SRN OH. GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AS WAS EVIDENT AT FDY AROUND 03Z WITH A RECORDED SEVERE WIND GUST OF 53 KT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS SERN LOWER MI AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL OH IN THE WAKE OF THE WRN MOST LINE OF STORMS...GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AND INSTABILITY REMAINING SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41748239 40848213 40188232 40398339 40258385 42758419 43158244 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 03:44:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 23:44:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220345 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-220545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1292 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN KS...NRN MO/FAR SRN IA AND SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533... VALID 220345Z - 220545Z CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER CENTRAL/ERN KS JUST SOUTH OF I-70 WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY SEWD. MERGING OUTFLOW BNDRYS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SVR THREAT BECOMING MORE OF A HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS OVER CENTRAL/ECENTRAL KS. DESPITE INCREASING CINH...CONVECTIVE LINE OVER FAR NWRN OK/SCENTRAL KS MAY PERSIST FOR A WHILE GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG COLD POOL THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE. SVR CLUSTER OVER CENTRAL KS HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SWD SUPPORTED BY MODEST PRESSURE RISES. HOWEVER...EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BNDRY OVER SWRN KS HAS BEGUN TO MERGE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND IS NOW SUPPORTING A SLOWER MVMNT SPEED ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER /SLN AND RSL AREA/. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ROUGHLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I-70 OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AS THE SWRN KS OUTFLOW SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTED BY A STRONG REAR INFLOW JET /50 KTS PER THE 02Z GDA PROFILER DATA/. DMGG WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...BUT AS MERGING OUTFLOWS AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE MODE...HVY RAIN WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT. FURTHER SOUTH...INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT STRONGER INFLOW INTO CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NWRN OK AND PORTIONS OF FAR SCENTRAL KS. DESPITE STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE AND MATURE COLD POOL...INCREASING CINH SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE SVR THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. FINALLY...OVER SERN NEB SMALLER CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY / REF 00Z OMA SOUNDING/ AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. ADDITIONALLY INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE AND A MARGINAL SVR THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO FAR SRN IA AND NRN MO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES NOTED ON THE 00Z TOP SOUNDING. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTH SUGGESTS THAT AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND A NEW WW EAST OF WW 533 IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD... 40859245 40919474 40799634 39519716 38919959 38640045 38410029 38219849 37379862 37189888 36999766 37119499 38569460 39329230 39999193 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 04:04:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 00:04:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220405 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220405 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-220530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1293 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH / WRN PA/ NRN WV PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536... VALID 220405Z - 220530Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD THROUGH WRN PART OF WW 536 BETWEEN 04-06Z. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM RICHLAND TO LORAIN COUNTIES OH AND MOVING TO THE ESE AT 40 KT. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXTENDED EWD INTO NERN OH/NWRN PA. THE WRN MOST STORMS ARE THE STRONGEST AND WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED OVER IND/WRN-SRN OH PER 35 KT SWLY LLJ. THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO ERN OH WITH A RECENT HISTORY OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE ESE REACHING THE NRN WV PANHANDLE COUNTIES OF HANCOCK TO OHIO TOWARD 06Z. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN... 40158220 41988229 42377992 41967896 41167878 40367896 40057926 39948050 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 14:25:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 10:25:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221426 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221403 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-221530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0903 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY...SRN IL...FAR SW IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221403Z - 221530Z A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WRN KY...SRN IL AND FAR SW IND. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORM COVERAGE EXPANDS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MO INTO NCNTRL IL AND FAR NRN IND. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F AND STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF SRN IL...SRN IND AND WRN KY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WRN KY AND SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS EXPAND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NWD THIS MORNING. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM SUGGESTING A HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH... 37028917 37828924 38478868 38548743 37628668 36788713 36578832 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 14:55:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 10:55:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221456 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221455 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-221630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1296 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0955 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE IL...IND AND OH...NRN KY...NRN WV...FAR WRN PA CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 221455Z - 221630Z AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF SE IL...IND...OH...NRN KY...NRN WV AND FAR WRN PA FOR TODAY. THE OUTLOOK DISCUSSION CONCERNING THIS MODERATE RISK UPGRADE WILL BE ISSUED BY 1630Z. ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH... 37028917 37828924 38478868 38548743 37628668 36788713 36578832 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 16:21:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 12:21:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221622 ILZ000-MOZ000-221745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1297 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MO...WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221622Z - 221745Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN SCNTRL MO ON THE SRN END OF AN MCS. AS THE CELLS EXPAND IN COVERAGE...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL DEVELOP. A WW WILL BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC MESOLOW OVER SE MO WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME UNCAPPED AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN SRN MO. THE AIRMASS IN WHICH THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR STRONG MULTICELLS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 37999009 37359259 37779314 38439319 38829277 39559027 38538940 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 16:37:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 12:37:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221638 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221637 OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-221800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IL/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA INTO WESTERN OH/FAR NORTHERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537... VALID 221637Z - 221800Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537 CONTINUES UNTIL 19Z...WITH SEVERE THREAT STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY SOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO WESTERN OH...AND PERHAPS FAR NORTHERN KY. WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS -- EXTENDING FROM NEAR SOUTH BEND TO LAFAYETTE INDIANA AS OF 1630Z -- WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN WW 537. FURTHER SOUTH...TOWERING CU IS EVIDENT FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AT THIS TIME. ACCORDINGLY...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS ERODED OVER A BROAD AREA OF THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA INTO WESTERN OH/NORTHERN KY. WITH STEADILY INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND EVOLUTION OF LINEAR CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED SOON ON THE PERIPHERY OF WW 537. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH... 39878740 40348569 41738437 41358308 40818266 39898240 39038303 38048489 38168680 39008743 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 17:10:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 13:10:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221711 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221710 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-221845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1299 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NWRN AR...FAR SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221710Z - 221845Z THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ERN OK AND NW AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SCNTRL MO SWWD INTO NERN OK ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE. NEW STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN KS WITH A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE SUGGESTING THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO AN AXIS OF VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ESPECIALLY AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN... 34679315 35119641 36089674 36969584 36499284 35719241 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 17:44:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 13:44:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221745 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221745 MOZ000-221915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1300 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221745Z - 221915Z NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN MO TO THE WEST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538. STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MO OVER THE PAST HOUR...INCLUDING A RECENT 1 INCH HAIL REPORT IN CASS COUNTY MO. AS THE STORM ENTERS HENRY COUNTY IT APPEARS TO BE EXHIBITING AT LEAST MID LEVEL ROTATION...LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO BACKGROUND VORTICITY VIA CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MCV. NARROW CORRIDOR OF SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE WEST OF WW 538...HOWEVER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST MO BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY ENTERS WW 538. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... 37869446 38669416 39349330 39079242 38329243 37539343 37319435 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 17:46:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 13:46:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221747 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221746 COZ000-NMZ000-221915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1301 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/CNTRL CO...NRN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221746Z - 221915Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ECNTRL CO AND NRN NM. A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY BY THE 19-20Z TIMEFRAME. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF ERN CO WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGING DEWPOINTS UPWARD IN THE UPPER 50S F AND LOWER 60S F. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT CONTINUED SFC HEATING SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE CO AS WELL. AS STORMS MOVE EWD OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. THE PROFILER IN SERN CO SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...A WELL-DEFINED DENVER CYCLONE IS PRESENT AND THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE INCREASING THE SUPERCELL THREAT ACROSS NE CO AS WELL. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR AS SUPERCELLS MATURE IN THE CO PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 35860436 36090619 37290631 38740577 40340489 40470365 39720249 37720322 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 18:30:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 14:30:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221829 PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-222000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1302 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WV...WRN PA...FAR WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221829Z - 222000Z THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EWD INTO WRN PA AND WV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW WILL BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY. LATEST ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS SRN OH...WRN PA AND WV WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT. CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION IS ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN OH IN AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EXPANDING THE CONVECTION AND MOVING THE STORMS EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A JET NEAR 700 MB ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. AS A RESULT...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND/OR STRONG MULTICELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE... 37968101 38538174 40008112 41738024 42617923 41947747 40197809 37957954  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 19:11:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 15:11:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221912 TXZ000-OKZ000-222045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1303 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221912Z - 222045Z STORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND AS STORMS INITIATE AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WEST TX. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WSWWD FROM SW OK INTO ERN NM. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25 KT SUGGESTING SEVERE MULTICELLS AND/OR SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE IN THE 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM RANGE WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 33170141 33260245 33790282 35450289 36340267 36520163 36250012 34389996 33450014 33250054 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 19:30:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 15:30:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221931 SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-222100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1304 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF GA/EASTERN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221931Z - 222100Z STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST/HAIL THREAT THROUGH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF GA/EASTERN AL/FL PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. IN PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH...HOT TEMPERATURES/WELL MIXED AIRMASS HAS LEAD TO PULSE-TYPE STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PRESENCE OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. GIVEN MOIST AIRMASS /PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG IN PRESENCE OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /20 KTS OR LESS PER ATLANTA WSR-88D WVP/...AN EPISODIC SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE MORE ROBUST STORMS. ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB... 35538537 35788341 35438258 33708254 32538265 30358335 30348502 31108614 32628644 34008636 35178596 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 20:12:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 16:12:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222012 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-222145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1305 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...OH...NE KY...WV...WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 541... VALID 222012Z - 222145Z A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO IS DEVELOPING AND WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS ERN OH AND WRN PA. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE ERIE WSWWD INTO NRN IND AND CNTRL IL. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL FUEL A LINEAR MCS EWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE MCS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 55 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX JUST BEHIND THE MCS WHICH IS CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONG WINDS AT MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SFC BY THE MCS AND MAY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN OH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN OR OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX... 37678217 37608394 38278489 39988474 41528412 42018210 41607944 38458009 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 20:19:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 16:19:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222020 KSZ000-222145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222020Z - 222145Z WITH AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS WESTERN KS. STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHWEST KS NEAR GOODLAND/COLBY KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING BOUNDARY IN PRESENCE OF EASTERLY UPSLOPE REGIME. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST KS REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WHERE THE AMBIENT AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATIVE OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. PER GRANADA/RED WILLOW PROFILERS...MODEST MID LEVEL WESTERLIES ATOP LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/UPDRAFT ROTATION. IT APPEARS A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED SOON. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... 39400184 39440022 38369930 37209919 37150014 37200141 37650179 38290185 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 20:40:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 16:40:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222039 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-222245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1307 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO WESTERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538...540... VALID 222039Z - 222245Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 538 AND 540 CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES NAMELY IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KY...THIS IS EAST OF WELL ORGANIZED SOUTH CENTRAL MO MCS...EASTWARD INTO A RELATIVELY UNPERTURBED MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN INDIANA/WESTERN KY. STRONG INSOLATION WITH 90S F TEMPERATURES/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS IS SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3250 J/KG IN THE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODEST /20 KTS PER BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILER/...EASTWARD MOVING SOUTH CENTRAL MO MCS/COLD POOL AND CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE THE RELATIVELY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO EARLY EVENING...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 36709349 38309293 39659080 39708645 39158574 37888627 36878687 36468836 36659001  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 21:30:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 17:30:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222129 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222129 COZ000-222300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0429 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 542... VALID 222129Z - 222300Z TORNADO WATCH 542 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO...WITH CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CO IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. SEVERAL TORNADOES WERE REPORTED EARLIER IN DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES. COMBINATION OF VEERING WIND PROFILES AND MOIST AIRMASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ASIDE FROM LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES -- SEEMINGLY MOST LIKELY IN LINCOLN AND PERHAPS CROWLEY/WESTERN KIOWA COUNTIES IN THE SHORT TERM -- ALTHOUGH EAST CENTRAL CO STORMS MAY TEND TO BE UNDERCUT BY SOUTHWARD SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 39110451 39110288 38810221 37220212 37150251 37170381 37160480 38190486 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 21:43:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 17:43:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222143 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222143 NYZ000-PAZ000-NJZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-222215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1309 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0443 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN PA/SRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 543... VALID 222143Z - 222215Z NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL/ERN PA AND SRN NY. THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS WW 543 DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS WRN PA WITH AN ESTABLISHED BOW ECHO...NOW LOCATED OVER ERN OH /SUMMIT TO NRN COSHOCTON COUNTIES/...APPROACHING WRN PART OF WW 543 BY 22-2230Z. AIR MASS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO ERN PA/SRN NY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. DESPITE ONGOING STORMS OVER WRN PA...CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNING THE AIR MASS...THE ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WITH THE BOW ECHO AND 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSLATING EWD TO NRN PA/SRN NY THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE BOW STRUCTURE AND ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER EAST...THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE EWD AIDING IN AN INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN NY/NRN PA...WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO SUPPORT STORMS MAINTAINING SEVERE POTENTIAL EWD OF WW 543. THUS...NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR CENTRAL-ERN PA AND SRN NY. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE... 38047993 38078243 42078037 42687892 42917762 42777561 42167476 41307492 40267554 39757669 39197817 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 22:34:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 18:34:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222234 KSZ000-230000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1310 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 545... VALID 222234Z - 230000Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 545 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL/SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUE FROM EAST CENTRAL CO INTO WEST CENTRAL KS...NAMELY FROM GREELEY COUNTY KS TO RUSH/ELLIS COUNTIES KS AS OF 2230Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. LARGE HAIL/SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO 15-20 KTS OF STORM RELATIVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. SUSTAINED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED AS STORMS TEND TO BE UNDERCUT BY SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD... 38780175 38830052 38749933 38009836 37349835 37149956 37250161 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 22:45:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 18:45:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222245 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-230015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1311 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM AND OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544... VALID 222245Z - 230015Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH CONTINUED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. ASIDE FROM A PERIODIC SEVERE THREAT IN THE TX PANHANDLE IN A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY FROM NEAR AMARILLO TO SOUTH OF LUBBOCK...A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IN WW 544 APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS NORTHEAST NM AND THE OK PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERAL RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED MCS CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...ONE SOUTH OF THE CO/NM BORDER NORTH OF CLAYTON NM...ANOTHER ONE ENTERING KIOWA COUNTY CO NORTH OF LAMAR/LA JUNTA AS OF 2230Z. MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/FORWARD PROPAGATION INTO A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF WW 544 THIS EVENING AS ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED MCS/S...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 36440506 36830346 36730139 36070011 33890045 33660237 34350464 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 23:08:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 19:08:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222308 INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-222345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL/FAR SERN MO/SRN IND/WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 540... VALID 222308Z - 222345Z NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED BY 00Z TO REPLACE MOST OF WW 540. REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND/OR MCV NOW LOCATED OVER ALONG THE MO/IL BORDER AND TRACKING EWD. ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN A LINE OF BROKEN THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SWWD FROM SWRN IL /JUST E OF STL/ TO NERN AR. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR WHERE THE AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000-2500 J/KG/. DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 20 KT/ WIND FIELDS ENHANCED BY MCV MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. IN ADDITION...ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE LINE OF STORMS SPREADS EWD THIS EVENING INTO FAR SERN MO/SRN IL TO SRN IND/WRN KY. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 36579084 39518859 39528565 39478534 38618548 36598684 36488928 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 23:50:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 19:50:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222350 COZ000-230115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1313 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 542... VALID 222350Z - 230115Z SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TORNADO WATCH 542 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 01Z. IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS/LEADING EDGE OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOWS...PRIMARY SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT REMAINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO...NAMELY IN PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES. WHILE LARGE HAIL/A FEW TORNADOES HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN SOUTHEAST CO...STABILIZING COLD POOL IN WAKE OF MCS/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION OUT OF SOUTHEAST CO SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT IN TORNADO WATCH 542. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38370460 38610294 38600242 37450222 37160243 37120406 37190487 37790496  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 00:20:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 20:20:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230021 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-230215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1314 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM/TX AND OK PANHANDLES/SOUTHERN KS/NORTHWEST OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544...545... VALID 230021Z - 230215Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 544/545 CONTINUE UNTIL 04Z...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATEST LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM/SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/NORTHWEST OK. RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED MCS...DRIVEN BY STRONG COLD POOL/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO/ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OK THROUGH MID EVENING. DOWNSTREAM OF THE MCS...A CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY UNPERTURBED AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS/NORTHEAST NM INTO THE OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OK...WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG PER AUGMENTED RUC SOUNDINGS. MODEST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND ADEQUATE INSTABILITY OUTSIDE OF EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS /NAMELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLES/ SUGGESTS CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FORWARD PROPAGATION INTO 20 KNOTS OF LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL CONTINUING. ..GUYER.. 06/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36120417 36490246 37810158 38219854 36559747 34670054 34080334 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 00:38:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 20:38:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230038 PAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-230145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1315 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN IND/SRN OH/SWRN PA/CENTRAL-ERN KY/MUCH OF WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 541...543... VALID 230038Z - 230145Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PARTS OF WW/S 541 AND 543 THROUGH 02Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUING TO MOVE EWD THROUGH SWRN PA AND BEGINNING TO ENTER SWRN PART OF WW 546. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED SWWD INTO CENTRAL AND WRN WV...WITH A SECOND LINE OF STORMS ADVANCING ESE THROUGH FAR SRN OH/FAR WRN WV AT THIS TIME. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...BUT GENERALLY MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25 KT SHOULD RESULT IN LIMITED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH 02Z. FARTHER W...CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING NNEWD THROUGH CENTRAL IND SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE /RECENT 38 KT WIND GUST PER 2345Z SURFACE OBSERVATION AT IND/ AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FARTHER NWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. ..PETERS.. 06/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND... 36808677 38518608 39568565 39848361 40597865 40507867 38067989 37608156 36838312 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 01:08:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 21:08:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230108 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-230215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0808 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN-SERN NY/ERN-SRN PA/FAR NRN MD/NRN-WRN NJ/NRN DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546... VALID 230108Z - 230215Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS ERN PART OF WW 546 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH SRN CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD REACHING FAR ERN PA/WRN NJ/FAR NRN DE BY 02Z. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 546. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING THROUGH THE PA COUNTIES OF LYCOMING TO WRN SCHUYLKILL TO FRANKLIN. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS AREA AND EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM INTO NJ/DE AND NRN MD REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...SUGGESTING FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WILL CONTINUE EWD WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SPREADING EAST OF WW 546 BY 02Z. ..PETERS.. 06/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 39787903 40007879 40127775 40477719 41017690 41867701 42287684 42777628 42757463 42097417 40907402 40007444 39677476 39307538 39427638  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 03:34:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 23:34:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230334 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-230430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1317 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE/NW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544... VALID 230334Z - 230430Z ...ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS MAINLY NW OK ASSOCIATED WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH MCS... LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOWS THAT THE MOST INTENSE AREA OF ONGOING MCS IS ACROSS BEAVER THROUGH WOODS CO IN NW OK...SWWD THROUGH LIPSCOMB/ROBERTS CO TX. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FROM AMA TO CVS...AS AIRMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY EARLIER STORMS. LOCAL RADAR FROM AMA SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS OUTRUN STRATIFORM RAIN BY NEARLY 30 MILES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW GUSTS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 40 MPH. WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY WEAK...SO STORMS WILL HAVE TO MOVE BY PROPAGATION LARGELY. GIVEN RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS...HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NW OK IS LIKELY WITH 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RATES. SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MERGING CELLS AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ANOTHER WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..TAYLOR.. 06/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 35609838 34820170 34180292 35600273 36930160 37389855 36479797 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 03:48:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 23:48:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230349 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-230415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1318 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA/WRN NJ/FAR NRN DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546... VALID 230349Z - 230415Z WW 546 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z...OR MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY BY THE LOCAL WFO...GIVEN THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT HAS ALL BUT ENDED. AIR MASS ACROSS THE VALID PART OF WW 546 /PA COUNTIES OF YORK AND LANCASTER/ WHICH IS IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW WEAKENING ALONG THE PA/NJ BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE...AND THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 06/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39767704 40227647 40477575 40907534 41057492 40787471 39877474 39527547 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 14:41:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2006 10:41:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231441 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231441 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-231615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1319 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0941 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN VA...MD...DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231441Z - 231615Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN NRN VA...MD AND DE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS CNTRL VA. EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO INITIATE AND ORGANIZE NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALLOW THE STORMS TO INTENSIFY. WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST SHEAR PROFILES ARE ADEQUATE FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATE THIS MORNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP...HAIL COULD ALSO BE A THREAT DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 37567667 37267746 37047838 37537901 38237915 38847836 39177732 39537625 39417541 38517490 37977550 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 15:52:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2006 11:52:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231553 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231552 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-231715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1320 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...NW GA...TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231552Z - 231715Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVES EWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN...NRN AL AND NW GA 0VER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 17Z ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM NRN AR EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS WRN TN INTO CNTRL KY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS ALREADY PRESENT THIS MORNING. THE INSTABILITY WILL FUEL THE CONVECTION ALLOWING THE LINE TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXISTING FROM NRN AL EXTENDING NNEWD INTO ECNTRL TN. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.0 C/KM ALONG THIS AXIS AND MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS THE LINE MOVES EWD. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED IN OR AHEAD OF THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34078512 33908779 34928823 36008731 35918484 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 17:08:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2006 13:08:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231709 NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-231845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1321 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC...NW SC...FAR NE GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231709Z - 231845Z AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WSWWD FROM WV INTO CNTRL KY AND WRN TN. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES ALREADY IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THIS WILL FUEL THE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM IN PLACES. THIS MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... 35417995 34668097 34268239 34658381 35718342 36578139 36348003 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 17:31:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2006 13:31:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231731 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-231930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MA/CT/RI/SOUTHEAST NY/SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHERN VT/NJ/EASTERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231731Z - 231930Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NY/NJ/EASTERN PA. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT CUMULUS FIELD DEEPENING OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST NY ACROSS MA AND SOUTHERN NH. A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NY/PA/NJ...WITH UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS COMMON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODIFIED 12Z ALBANY/LONG ISLAND/CHATHAM OBSERVED RAOBS SUGGEST NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH MLCAPES VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PRESENCE OF 30-35 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ..GUYER.. 06/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 43397209 43397119 43207067 42587110 41917111 41507181 41357268 40747334 39977429 39597494 40017585 41487541 42277401 42687301 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 26 15:37:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2006 11:37:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261538 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261537 MNZ000-NDZ000-261700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1355 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1037 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN...PARTS OF ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261537Z - 261700Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW. MID-LEVEL COOLING ACCOMPANYING STRONG DIGGING UPPER JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE CENTRAL U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AREA. DEEPENING CONVECTION IS ALREADY EVIDENT...MOSTLY ALONG COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME...GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY NEAR/JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF MID-LEVEL COLD CORE /500 MB TEMPS TO -20C/...SPREADING SOUTH OF THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA. RISK OF HAIL IS PROBABLY PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. SHEAR/FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...MAINLY WITH ANY PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY DEEPER INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS... 48569287 48079331 47379445 47269625 47599708 47699945 47820063 48290117 48930100 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 26 16:39:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2006 12:39:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261639 INZ000-ILZ000-261815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1356 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...IL...IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261639Z - 261815Z A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING/INCREASING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING AND SURFACE WARMING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...FOCUSED NEAR 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. EVOLUTION INTO A SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE/CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18-21Z...AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN TROUGH...AND PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ROUGHLY BETWEEN QUINCY AND ST. LOUIS. FLOW/SHEAR REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS IS RATHER WEAK...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG COULD STILL SUPPORT BRIEF STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BECOME MINIMIZED AS OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BECOME DOMINANT. ..KERR.. 06/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 41338851 41478737 40878658 40098726 39158750 38348791 37688893 38548912 39248912 39898976 40908932 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 26 20:39:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2006 16:39:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262039 MNZ000-NDZ000-262215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1357 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557... VALID 262039Z - 262215Z CONTINUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ON LEADING/SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET...SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF WATCH AREA. HOWEVER...STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION STILL APPEARS TO REMAIN FOCUSED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MID-LEVEL COLD CORE NOW SHIFTING INTO/THROUGH THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA...WHERE A CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO GROW. IN ADDITIONAL TO CONTINUING RISK OF HAIL...GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS...MAY BECOME AN INCREASE THREAT THROUGH 22-23Z ACROSS THE BEMIDJI/GRAND FORKS AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF BRAINERD. ..KERR.. 06/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 48859541 48549431 47779388 47149439 46999548 47129682 47539804 48249844 48619717 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 26 23:51:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2006 19:51:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262352 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262351 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-270145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1358 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN ND...NRN/W-CENTRAL MN. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557... VALID 262351Z - 270145Z ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF WW AREA HAS BEEN STABILIZED EITHER BY OUTFLOW OR BY NEGATIVE BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE ADVECTION BEHIND WIND SHIFT/FROPA. PORTIONS WW OVER E-CENTRAL/NERN ND AND NERN MN ALREADY HAVE BEEN CLEARED. REMAINDER WW MAY BE CANCELED INCREMENTALLY AS NEEDED...BEFORE SCHEDULED 2Z EXPIRATION. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW NEAR BJI WITH COLD FRONT WWD ACROSS CENTRAL ND. NONCONVERGENT NLY FLOW AND DRYING IS EVIDENT BEHIND FRONT...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AHEAD OF FRONT...TSTMS HAVE PRODUCED RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE OUTFLOW AIR ACROSS MOST OF NRN MN. ISOLATED STG-SVR TSTMS MAY CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS BECKER/OTTER TAIL COUNTIES...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR SWWD TOWARD SERN CORNER ND. REMAINING SVR GUST/HAIL POTENTIAL APPEARS MRGL ATTM. EXPECT PREFRONTAL AIR MASS TO STABILIZE WITH DIABATIC SFC COOLING OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46439807 46969668 48309513 48019452 46539473 45619594 45889695 46049780 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 28 13:50:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Jun 2006 09:50:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 281351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281351 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-281615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0851 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI...NWRN OH...NRN/CNTRL IND AND ERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281351Z - 281615Z TSTMS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. H5 CHART SHOWS THE SEASONABLY COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 20 DEG C AT GRB. THIS COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD SPREAD EWD ATOP THE RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS/MIDWEST REGION THROUGH THE AFTN. 12Z DTX/ILX/GRB SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AS SFC TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 DEG F...SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS WILL BE THE WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE OVERALL WNWLY FLOW REGIME. BUT...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT CURLING FROM NERN WI ACROSS WRN LWR MI SWWD INTO CNTRL IL THAT SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE DAY. TSTMS SHOULD MAINLY FORM INTO CLUSTERS OR SHORT BANDS AND PULSE TO SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTN WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR AS COLD POOL ORGANIZATION ALIGNS WITH THE MEAN WNWLY FLOW. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTN FROM PARTS OF LWR MI/WRN PARTS OF SWRN ONT SWWD INTO PARTS OF IND/NWRN OH. ..RACY.. 06/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 39968892 42058720 43858751 44878672 45548431 44698135 43208070 39638488 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 28 17:00:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Jun 2006 13:00:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 281702 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281701 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-281900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1365 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA...WRN NY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 281701Z - 281900Z ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ERN OH INTO PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS STEEPENED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY WHERE VALUES ARE NOW APPROACHING 8C/KM TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE. THIS IS EVIDENT BY RAPID EXPANSION OF CU FIELD AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN OH. DEEP SWLY FLOW WILL LIMIT LAKE BREEZE MOVEMENT INLAND AND STRONG CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NWRN PA INTO WRN NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE LONGER LIVED ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 06/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE... 39788208 41808039 42947730 42087698 39358072 WWWW