[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jul 29 18:50:28 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 291852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291851 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-292015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1664
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NE SD...SE ND...W CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291851Z - 292015Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

NORTHEAST OF WEAK SURFACE LOW VICINITY OF PIERRE...STRONG LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS FOCUSED NEAR INTERSECTION OF
SURFACE FRONT AND REMNANT CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARY BETWEEN
ABERDEEN AND FARGO.  INHIBITION IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...BUT THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO WEAKEN NEXT FEW
HOURS AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK PERTURBATION CRESTING UPPER
RIDGE OVERSPREADS REGION.  STRONG HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 4000
J/KG...AND...AS CAP ERODES...RAPID INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 20-21Z.  

THOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE IN STRENGTH...
PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER THROUGH MID LEVELS IS
CREATING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
APPEAR LIKELY IN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY
RAIN CORES...AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS APPEAR A MORE PROMINENT THREAT
BY 23-00Z.

..KERR.. 07/29/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

46159838 46779665 46589550 45489550 45059653 45539800 

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