[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jul 29 00:34:40 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 290036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290035 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-290200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1655
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P. OF MICH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650...

VALID 290035Z - 290200Z

VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z
ACROSS NORTHEAST MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P. OF MICH...WITH PRIMARY
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL.

SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.P. OF MICH AND NORTHERN
WI EARLY THIS EVENING...NAMELY FOCUSED ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND LAKE-ENHANCED PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT. THESE
STORMS...INCLUDING BOTH RIGHT AND LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS...HAVE HAD
OF HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES AND STRONG/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...INCLUDING A RECENTLY MEASURED GUST OF 42 KTS AT ASHLAND WI
/AT 2351Z/.

OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...THE AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE. THE 00Z OBSERVED
MINNEAPOLIS RAOB CAPTURES THE VERY UNSTABLE NATURE OF THE SOURCE
AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPES ESTIMATED TO BE 1500-3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF
WW 650...HIGHEST WITH WEST EXTENT. AS SUPPORTED BY DULUTH/MARQUETTE
WSR-88D VWPS...VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40 KTS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION/SUPERCELLS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER.. 07/29/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

46599325 46729289 47039099 46968864 46258641 45038772
45238935 45459184 45579318 46239351 

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