[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 281554
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281553 
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-281830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1648
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 AM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO ERN MD AND DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281553Z - 281830Z

AS TEMPERATURES RISE THRU THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS TO MID 70S...AIR
MASS IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE E OF APPALACHIANS WITH MLCAPES AOA
2000 J/KG FROM ERN MD/DE NWD TO SERN NY.  BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY WRN NY/PA IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY 18Z JUST E OF APPALACHIANS AS
THE CURRENT WEAK CINH DISSIPATES.  30-35KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
20-25 KT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTS STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO CLUSTERS
AND SHORT LINES/BOWS.

PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE WARM AND WEAK LAPSE
RATES UNFAVORABLE FOR OTHER THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH

..HALES.. 07/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

38757602 39097742 39557734 40397656 42157470 42617396
42867353 42697178 41547151 41387282 38957500 

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