[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jul 28 01:38:47 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 280140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280139 
MEZ000-280315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1646
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0839 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IL INTO NWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647...

VALID 280139Z - 280315Z

THROUGH 03-04Z...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF A BMI TO SBN LINE.

A GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF STORMS INTO A QUASI-LINEAR MCS HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER
REFLECTIVITIES EXTENDING FROM ELKHART COUNTY IND SWWD
IROQUOIS...FORD AND MCLEAN COUNTIES IN E-CNTRL IL AS OF 0130Z. THIS
ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY MOVING 280-290/35 KTS INTO A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES STILL AROUND 2000 J/KG
BASED ON MODIFICATION OF 00Z ILX SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE
CONDITIONS.  PERSISTENT SWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL
OH VALLEY SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS MCS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
STORMS GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF IND.

SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF WW 647
AREA...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY BOWING PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE.
 ASIDE FROM THIS...CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOIST AIR MASS ALONG LLJ INTO
LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ALONG TRACK OF MCS WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES APPROACHING 1.5
TO 2 INCHES.

..MEAD.. 07/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...

46836975 47136937 47136888 47026845 46636836 46186873
46076935 46146985 46217006 

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