[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jul 26 20:23:08 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 262021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262019 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-262215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PARTS OF MT/WRN ND/NWRN AND N CENTRAL SD...

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 262019Z - 262215Z

WE ARE MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE OVER NERN MT AS WELL AS SWRN AREAS SWRN
ND AND NWRN SD.  LATEST RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED-V
PROFILES WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5C/KM.  AIR MASS
IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH ML CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR THAT IS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT.

ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY FLOW WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY...HIGH BASED SUPERCELL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1200 J/KG.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

48980502 48170537 46830480 44970390 44690191 44980037
45509871 46649937 48090076 48950276 

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