[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 251932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251932 
AZZ000-252230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1624
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 251932Z - 252230Z

A FEW DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN. A WW COULD BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS GET
ORGANIZED.

MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH DEEP SUBTROPICAL FETCH UP
THE GULF OF CA INTO SWRN AZ WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR
2.00 INCHES. HEATING HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG. STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN AZ...AND WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SWD AND SWWD WITH TIME. CONTINUED HEATING COMBINED WITH
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR WET
MICROBURSTS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK IN GENERAL...ELY FLOW ALOFT
ATOP SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THEY SHIFT SWWD. IN
ADDITION...MODIFIED TUS SOUNDING INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS...PERHAPS AROUND 1.00 INCH DIAMETER.

..JEWELL.. 07/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

32261389 34071250 34121092 33640935 31390955 31311105 

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