[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jul 25 19:03:00 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 251900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251900 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-252030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NERN SD/PARTS OF WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251900Z - 252030Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN
ND...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME SEVERE.  AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL WW.

REGIONAL RADARS AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SERN
MANITOBA INTO NERN-SOUTH CENTRAL ND...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONGER
STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN SRN MANITOBA.  AIR MASS ACROSS SERN
ND INTO NERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN...WHICH IS ALONG/S OF A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING E-W ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN GENERALLY NWD ALONG
THE ND/MN BORDER...IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/. 
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING ACROSS SERN ND SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION WHERE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GREATEST
/30-35 KT/ FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.  THUS...STORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER EDDY COUNTY ND SHOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHORT TERM
STORM ORGANIZATION AND ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. 

STRONGER FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE U.S.
BORDER...BUT THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT INTO ERN ND THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...ONGOING STORMS ACROSS
FAR NERN ND/FAR NWRN MN BORDER SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS IT MOVES
EWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER NWRN-NRN MN.

..PETERS.. 07/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

47369957 48159926 48989847 48949714 47539679 46889526
46509458 45159464 44859579 45029758 45439907 46010005
46620007 

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