[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jul 25 18:27:50 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 251825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251825 
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-252030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND WRN NY...NWRN PA...NRN VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251825Z - 252030Z

ISOLATED SVR WIND AND HAIL IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NECESSARY AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC BUT
STORMS ARE STRENGTHENING WITHIN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALONG
THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT AREAS OF NRN NY AND
VT. AREA WIND PROFILES WOULD CURRENTLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...BUT LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER WITH TIME CAUSING PROFILES TO BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. THUS...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH HAIL AND WIND...BUT
TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN/POSSIBLE STRONG WIND GUST
REGIME.

FARTHER SW...WELL DEFINED SECONDARY VORT MAX CONTINUES EWD ACROSS SW
ONTARIO...WITH ASSOCIATED STORM CLUSTER. THIS CLUSTER HAS SHOWN
SIGNS OF WEAKENING...BUT MAY REGENERATE ONCE IT GETS E OF LAKE
EFFECT BOUNDARY/STABLE ZONE. GIVEN STRONG HEATING E OF THIS ZONE
INTO WRN AND CENTRAL NY AS WELL AS FAR NWRN PA...A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 07/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

44967170 44277217 42777497 41807803 41718036 42757967
43277891 44257611 45047481 44997212 

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