[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jul 25 00:51:08 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 241749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241749 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-241915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...WI..EXTREME SRN UPPER PENINSULA
OF MI...EXTREME NWRN IA...NWRN LM.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241749Z - 241915Z

POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS WITH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.  WW WILL BE REQUIRED...MOSTLY OVER WI.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONE INVOF ONTARIO LAKE SHORE OF NERN
LS...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS EXTREME NWRN WI...APCHG STC...AND
INTO SD NEAR HON.  EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE SEWD 15-20 KT ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT HAS DESTABILIZED
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH SFC DIABATIC HEATING...SUCH THAT SBCINH IS NEARLY
GONE ACCORDING TO MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS.  SFC DEW POINTS
RANGE THROUGH 60S F TO NEAR 70...LOCALLY MAXIMIZED BY
EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE EFFECTS.  MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT IN 12Z
MSP RAOB AND PRESENCE OF AREAS OF ACCAS IN VIS IMAGERY...WITH LAPSE
RATES APCHG 8 DEG C/KM.  THIS CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG
FROM SERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI WSWWD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN MN. 
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES...HOWEVER LIFT NEAR FRONT AND DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL FROM MULTICELL/LINEAR MODES.

..EDWARDS.. 07/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...

44569650 45509313 45768850 45658746 45368679 44838678
44328825 43988997 43319487 43399622 43719632 