[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jul 24 20:06:20 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 242004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242004 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-242200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NWRN IA...S-CENTRAL/SERN
SD...S-CENTRAL/SWRN MN...W-CENTRAL THROUGH NERN NEB.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 242004Z - 242200Z

CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERALL...IN
S-CENTRAL/SWRN MN W OF WW 639. ISOLATED/POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS ALSO
HAVE FORMED OVER SERN SD NW FSD...AND INVOF ONL.  FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER THIS REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.  AREA
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER SD...WITH FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS HON AREA TO BETWEEN STC-MSP.  RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW AIR OVER CENTRAL/NRN IA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE BUT WILL
BECOME MORE BUOYANT WITH CONTINUED HEATING.  FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD
15-20 KT ACROSS ERN MN...10-15 KT OVER SRN MN AND DRIFT ERRATICALLY
E OF LOW.  AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
FAVORABLE MOISTURE OVER NRN IA AND SRN MN...TRENDING TOWARD LOWER
DEW POINTS IN HOTTER/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NEB/SRN SD
WHERE SFC TEMPS ALREADY APCH 100 DEG F MOST AREAS.  CONTINUED
INSOLATION WILL FURTHER WEAKEN CINH AND...IN COMBINATION WITH FRONT
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. 
MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN WEAK OVER MUCH OF
THIS AREA EXCEPT FOR S-CENTRAL SD INTO N-CENTRAL/NERN NEB...IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX.  LOW LEVEL VEERING ALSO WILL
BE STRONGER OVER SAME REGION,...WITH MORE SLY SFC WIND COMPONENT
VWP/RUC HODOGRAPHS FROM FSD-ANW.  THEREFORE SOME ORGANIZED SVR
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST...MAINLY IN FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS FROM
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT AND/OR COLD POOL-DRIVEN CONVECTION.  ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS.. 07/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...

42290102 43999965 44979580 44869456 43469297 43199294
42649368 42459565 41559877 40940144 41990283 

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