[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jul 22 20:46:48 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 222044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222044 
CTZ000-NYZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-222215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1610
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NJ...WRN-CENTRAL CT...SERN NY...DE...DC...PORTIONS
ERN PA...CENTRAL/SRN MD...S-CENTRAL THROUGH ERN VA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636...637...

VALID 222044Z - 222215Z

SVR POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS WW AREAS. NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS
NEAR PREFRONTAL TROUGH -- FROM NERN NJ SWWD TO NERN CHESAPEAKE BAY
-- SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS 626.  MEANWHILE SEPARATE LINE OF
CONVECTION INVOF SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW EVIDENT FROM NERN PA SWWD
ACROSS ERN WV -- WILL APCH WRN PORTION OF BOTH WWS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR OCCASIONAL SVR GUSTS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SERN NY. WARM
FRONT -- EXTENDING EWD THROUGH BOS AREA -- SHOULD DRIFT NWD TOWARD
SRN VT/NH BORDERS.  DESTABILIZATION TO ITS S OVER MOST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND IMPACTS OF EARLIER
CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...FROM SWRN CT ACROSS SERN VA AND BETWEEN
CONVECTIVE BANDS...CLEARING WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL INSOLATION. 
THIS...ALONG WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F -- WILL
OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BUOYANCY. 
LARGEST MLCAPES -- TO NEAR 1500 J/KG -- ARE EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL/NRN
DELMARVA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAX DEW POINTS...AND MAY
EXPAND NWD INTO NJ.

STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FROM NJ NEWD.  ISALLOBARIC
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF CYCLONE...IN ONLY MRGLLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THROUGH
REMAINDER AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WW AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT VEERED -- MAINLY SSWLY TO SWLY -- LIMITING
BOTH LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE AND CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER
BULK SHEAR MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 35-45 KT RANGE WITH APCH OF
GREAT LAKES MIDLEVEL TROUGH.  THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL FOR ANY DISCRETE TSTMS...AND FOR  SMALL BOWS...WITH
ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST
ON LOCAL SCALES AT STORM/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OR IN BOW ECHO
VORTICES.

..EDWARDS.. 07/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

37707964 38857793 40717592 42287441 42437335 42067347
42017258 41267236 41037175 40587332 40287324 40227362
39597371 39027434 38647475 38187475 37577521 36937566
36537553 36538000 36848008 36837967 37117960 37238009 

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