[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jul 20 00:43:21 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 200042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200041 
LAZ000-TXZ000-200245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1571
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN LA/EASTERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621...

VALID 200041Z - 200245Z

VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621 CONTINUES UNTIL
05Z...WITH PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL REMAINING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN LA/EASTERN TX.

WELL ORGANIZED AND LONG SUSTAINED COLD POOL/MCS CONTINUES TO DRIVE
WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN LA THIS EVENING...WITH STORMS NEARING THE
SABINE RIVER AS OF 0030Z...INCLUDING AREAS FROM SOUTH OF SHREVEPORT
TO NEAR FORT POLK/LEESVILLE LA. SIMILAR TO UPSTREAM
HISTORY...PRIMARY HAZARD OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST...WITH THE
MCS CROSSING THE SABINE AND NEARING THE NACOGDOCHES/LUFKIN/JASPER TX
AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE -- PER 00Z OBSERVED
RAOBS FROM SHREVEPORT/LAKE CHARLES. THIS MCS APPEARS LIKELY TO
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS EASTERN TX /WESTERN PART OF WW
621/...ATTRIBUTABLE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE AIRMASS WITH WESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TX.

..GUYER.. 07/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

32759529 32999455 32829294 31439242 30659258 30719458 

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