[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jul 19 22:25:38 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 192224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192223 
ILZ000-MOZ000-200000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL AND FAR EASTERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 619...

VALID 192223Z - 200000Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 619 CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IL
UNTIL 01Z...WITH CONTINUED PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. IT APPEARS AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS LIKELY
SOON ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/FAR EASTERN MO...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR/EAST
OF ST LOUIS.

INTENSE MCS WITH HISTORY OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS /IN ADDITION
TO SOME LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO/ CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL IL...WITH THE LEADING EDGE NEAR
SPRINGFIELD/JACKSONVILLE AS OF 2215Z. WITH A PREFERENTIAL
PROPAGATION FAVORING THE W/SW FLANK OF THE MCS...COLD POOL
MOMENTUM/FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL LIKELY DRIVE/SUPPORT THIS MCS
MOVING SOUTHWARD TO AREAS NEAR ST LOUIS/INTERSTATE 70 OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF
I-70...IS CHARACTERIZED BY EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES IN
EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS LIKELY SOON.

..GUYER.. 07/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

38799105 40149096 40579039 40588918 40548799 39608765
39088801 38098843 37778892 37519003 38109075 38399107 

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