[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jul 19 20:33:21 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 192031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192031 
IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-192200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192031Z - 192200Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  A WW MAY BE NEEDED AS SOON AS 21Z.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW S OF YKN WITH ATTENDANT
COMPOSITE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD INTO NWRN IA
NEAR SPW AND THEN MORE SEWD THROUGH CNTRL IA E OF DSM. AIR MASS
ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA HAS BECOME QUITE HOT WITH TEMPERATURES OF
95-105 F.  WHEN COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...
ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME STRONGLY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES
OF 3000-5000 J/KG.  A STRONG CAP HAS INHIBITED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THUS
FAR...THOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER CUMULUS WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED AIR ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER
N-CNTRL NEB.

CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTION
TOWARD SURFACE TRIPLE POINT REGION OVER NWRN IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.  AS THIS OCCURS...RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION
WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AS UPDRAFTS TAP THE STRONG INSTABILITY. 
CURRENT FSD VWP APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
ALONG COMPOSITE BOUNDARY WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 AND AROUND
45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  THIS COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT INTENSE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.

..MEAD.. 07/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

42849696 43269669 43629625 43779525 43529421 42949292
41899279 41719352 42149451 42449565 42549660 

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