[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 180046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180045 
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-180245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1542
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN NV...NWRN AZ AND SERN CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609...

VALID 180045Z - 180245Z

CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NWRN AZ SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE WWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NWRN AZ OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS. SVR THREAT SHOULD APPROACH THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/LAKE MEAD
AREA SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS AROUND 03Z.

00Z SOUNDING FROM DRA MODIFIED FOR CONDITIONS IN LAS INDICATED
LITTLE MLCINH AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. TSTM ACTIVITY HAS
SHOWN RECENT SIGNS OF SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME CINH
REMAINING OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. RUC PFC/S INDICATE AROUND 25 J/KG
OF MLCINH BASED ON A SFC PARCEL OF 97/52 AT IGM. HOWEVER...GIVEN
CONTINUED CELL MERGERS/COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT THE SVR THREAT WILL STILL PROPAGATE WWD INTO THE LOWER COLO
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL REMAIN SVR AND
POSE A SVR THREAT ALL THE WAY INTO THE LAS VEGAS AREA...CONSIDERING
THE RECENT MOTION TRENDS AND GRADUAL STABILIZATION AFTER 04Z.

..CROSBIE.. 07/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PSR...VEF...

34281421 34091530 33991606 36561608 37001337 34371339 

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