[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jul 17 00:06:50 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 170005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170005 
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-170230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0705 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN...CENTRAL...WRN AZ AND EXTREME SRN NV/SERN CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 170005Z - 170230Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING FAR SRN AZ
AND PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR AN
ORGANIZED SVR THREAT ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF
WRN AZ IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE MOGOLLON
RIM HAS REMAINED STRONG UNTIL IT MOVES DOWN TO AROUND 3 KFT IN
ELEVATION. 18Z PHX SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS
INDICATES THERE REMAINS SOME CINH OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. THUS IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SVR THREAT WILL DEVELOP
INTO THE PHX METRO AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. FURTHER NW...CONVECTION
OVER NWRN PLATEAU REGION HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DEVELOPING A COLD POOL
RECENTLY. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY OF FAR
NWRN AZ AND EXTREME SRN NV APPEARS TO BE LESS CAPPED THAN THE PHX
METRO AREA BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. THUS AN ORGANIZED DMGG
WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS IF
CONTINUED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. 

OVER FAR SRN AZ...NWD MOVING OUTFLOW BNDRY HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF BEING
STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CINH AND SUPPORT CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED SVR TSTMS...MAINLY WEST OF TUS WHERE AIRMASS WAS MORE
UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

..CROSBIE.. 07/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

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