[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Jul 16 23:44:29 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 162343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162343 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-170115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SRN MN/WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162343Z - 170115Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH OR TWO.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
MAGNITUDE OF INHIBITION...BUT ALSO DUE TO THE LACK OF A MORE OBVIOUS
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN A BELT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES IS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A
WEAKER STREAM ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  ONE
IMPULSE IS NOW SHIFTING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH ANOTHER SHIFTING EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS VICINITY.  IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DIGGING SHORT WAVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL INHIBITION
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  AND...WEAK MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL STREAM COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AN EVOLVING LINE OF
STORMS THIS EVENING.

UPPER FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE MODERATE THAN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  BUT...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES/SIZABLE CAPE/AND SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE
COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.  ACTIVITY SEEMS MOST LIKELY NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF SIOUX
FALLS INTO AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF MINNEAPOLIS BY/SHORTLY AFTER
03Z.

..KERR.. 07/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR...

44469891 45239817 45579705 45829477 44959150 44688954
43658869 43138988 43429163 43599489 43569706 43619860 

WWWW