[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jul 14 06:08:29 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 140607
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140607 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-140730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1510
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SW MO...NE OK...FAR NW AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 140607Z - 140730Z

HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS A LARGE
MCS MOVES SSEWD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN
AND SRN KS WITH A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NNWWD ACROSS WRN AR INTO SE
KS. SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE SWD IN NERN OK AND NW AR AND THIS SHOULD
SUSTAIN THE MCS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS THE COMPLEX MOVES SSEWD
ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. THE LATEST PROFILER DATA OVER SERN KS SHOW
ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS DUE TO STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE MCS IS MOVING AWAY
FROM THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER NE KS AND THIS ALONG WITH
STABILIZATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATE TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DUE TO STEEP LAPSE
RATES...THE THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IF THE STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...A WW MIGHT BE CONSIDERED LATE TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 07/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

38769491 38479434 37749395 37039392 36159410 35639489
35599563 35799647 36329687 37259707 38219693 38769611 

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