[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 140220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140220 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-140415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1509
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0920 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...KS...SERN NEB...NRN/CNTRL MO...WCNTRL IL...SRN
IA...SERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 140220Z - 140415Z

LEADING EDGE OF A MATURE LINEAR MCS ARCS FROM ERN IA ACROSS NRN MO
AND NERN KS AT 02Z.  00Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS PLACES THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY AXIS FROM S OF KANSAS CITY ESEWD INTO AREAS JUST WEST OF
ST. LOUIS WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN 3-3.5 KJ PER KG ALONG/S OF A WARM
FRONT. PRIND THAT THE PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVE.  IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR S THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL SPREAD...BUT GIVEN THE STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE S OF THE STRONGER WLYS...A TRANSITION INTO MORE OF
A HEAVY RAINFALL/LARGE HAIL THREAT APPEARS LIKELY.  

FARTHER W...TSTMS HAVE BEEN BACKBUILDING ACROSS SCNTRL NEB AND
NCNTRL KS ATOP THE COLD POOL EMANATING FROM THE NRN MO MCS. 
PROFILERS/VWP SUGGEST THAT THE LLJ WAS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AND
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS
NRN/ERN KS INTO NRN MO.  OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM AHEAD OF THE
LINEAR MCS ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS AREA ATOP A WEAK COLD BUBBLE/MESO
HIGH.  THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINLY BE A LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THREATS.

..RACY.. 07/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

37750060 40529967 41689654 42089429 41329199 39579116
38049188 37609425 37529762 

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