[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jul 12 16:52:55 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 121652
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121652 
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-121815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PORTIONS OF KY / TN INTO ERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121652Z - 121815Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS BEING LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO FROM NEAR OWB TO W OF MEM
WITHIN AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F.  CURRENTLY...THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY RESIDES
OVER CNTRL AR /MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG/...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT SIMILAR INSTABILITY EWD INTO THE
LOWER/MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS.  

THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF MCV/S OVER
E-CNTRL MO AND N-CNTRL AR SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN AR INTO NWRN MS...AND OVER WRN
PARTS OF KY AND TN.  REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND LESS THAN 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL.
STILL...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY.  EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...OWING TO MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PW AOA 2 INCHES/ AND
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS.

..MEAD.. 07/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

34149288 34809241 36208998 37978730 38078664 37638609
36948621 36108704 34688942 33829093 33669222 

WWWW