[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jul 4 03:34:57 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 040335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040335 
MIZ000-040530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 040335Z - 040530Z

CHANCE FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE ACROSS
PARTS OF CNTRL LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL AREAL
EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO SMALL FOR A WATCH.

STRONG STORMS ARE MOVING EAST INTO PORTIONS OF WRN LOWER MI OFF LAKE
MI AT ABOUT 30KT. THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING ALONG AN EWD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP EWD/SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WAS MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATING SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF LOWER MI TO MAINTAIN STOUT
STORM UPDRAFTS ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. FURTHERMORE...
CLOUD-BEARING UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 40KT COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED VIGOROUS STORM SCALE CIRCULATIONS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. CORRIDOR OF
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE APPEARS TO BE FROM LDM AREA
EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/NCNTRL PORTION OF LOWER MI...PERHAPS AS FAR
EAST AS THE THUMB AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
IF A LONGER-LIVED AND LARGER SCALE BOW ECHO/WIND THREAT DOES
EVOLVE...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION.

..CARBIN.. 07/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

43688265 43218473 42968630 43158716 43658698 44258583
44438501 44508351 

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