[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jul 3 22:03:19 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 032203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032202 
SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-040000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL MT/MUCH OF WY/WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 032202Z - 040000Z

...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. MANY
STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED...AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION IS UNCLEAR...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER MT THIS
AFTN...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS
THE NRN ROCKIES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 35 KT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION HAS BECOME
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ACROSS MT...WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000
J/KG. ACROSS WY WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...INSTABILITY IS GREATER. LOW LEVEL BACKED FLOW WILL
SUPPORT LOW/MID LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...WITH LATEST BILLINGS
RADAR INDICATING SUPERCELLS FORMING ACROSS STILLWATER AND SWEET
GRASS COUNTIES WEST OF BIL. ISOLD LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A THREAT GIVEN
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS
WITH FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

..TAYLOR.. 07/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

41720545 42260770 42890903 45081143 45891226 46931073
47110882 46750666 46220505 45170300 43020239 

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