[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 031538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031538 
MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-031745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1425
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 AM CDT MON JUL 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NY/PA/NRN NJ/CT/RI/MA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031538Z - 031745Z

SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3
HOURS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.

MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL CUMULUS DEVELOPING
WITHIN AN OTHERWISE CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IS RESULTING IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION...WITH AN AXIS OF MEAN-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG ACROSS SRN NY AND PARTS OF NRN PA.

CU FIELD HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF AGITATION...PARTICULARLY
INVOF THE CATSKILLS...WHERE TCU ARE DEVELOPING.  DESPITE THE LACK OF
A CLEAR LOW-LEVEL FOCUS...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WITH TIME WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA...AS CONTINUED
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION RESULTS IN AN INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE
AIRMASS.

MORNING SOUNDINGS REVEAL ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/WNWLY FLOW...WHICH
INCREASES WITH HEIGHT TO AROUND 40 KT AT MID LEVELS -- SUPPORTIVE OF
STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION.  THOUGH FAIRLY WEAK LAPSE RATES
SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS
INDICATED -- PARTICULARLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO SMALL-SCALE
LINES.

..GOSS.. 07/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

44027618 43657517 42417100 41547091 40487250 40057819
40387978 41158007 42867870 

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