[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jul 3 02:59:39 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 030300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030259 
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-030530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0959 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...IA...IL...IND...OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 030259Z - 030530Z

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS...POSSIBLY LOCALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...
WILL PERSIST ALONG AND NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY
ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR A
STRONG WIND GUST...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

POCKETS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO CYCLE THROUGH INTENSITY CHANGES
NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...AND ALONG THE SRN
EDGE OF STRONGER DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW. STRONGEST ACTIVITY AT
PRESENT WAS OCCURRING ACROSS ECNTRL IL...WITH ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS
FORMING OVER PARTS OF NWRN IND. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
TRAVERSING THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO
PERSISTENCE/RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION OVER THESE AREAS.

FARTHER WEST...ACROSS IA...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY SUBSIDED
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED/WEAK CELLS NORTH AND EAST OF
DSM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE CONTRIBUTES TO ENHANCED ASCENT. DESPITE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS THE AREA...RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH ANY NEW ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS.

..CARBIN.. 07/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...

40508128 40058202 39698460 39768830 41049370 41539349
41979243 41028697 40878280 

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