[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Jul 2 02:27:42 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 020228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020227 
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-020330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1409
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0927 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI / WRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 571...

VALID 020227Z - 020330Z

SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 571. STORMS...
POTENTIALLY SEVERE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO WRN PART OF
SRN LOWER MI.

RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATED DIMINISHING STORM INTENSITIES WITH THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS SERN WI WHICH APPEAR TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A
DECREASING TREND IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.  ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZATION SUGGESTS THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT 30 KT
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL WI DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

MEANWHILE...TWO STORMS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI APPROACHING
MANISTEE/MASON COUNTIES IN SRN LOWER MI HAVE TENDED TO MAINTAIN
STORM INTENSITY.  LESS AVAILABLE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
ACROSS SRN LOWER MI SUGGESTS A MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR A NEW WW...BUT
ANY STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN INTENSITY WHILE CROSSING LAKE MI MAY
REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE PER SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /40-50
KT/ FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.

..PETERS.. 07/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

42809112 43968908 44208831 44258731 44248663 44258583
44218496 42858468 42298546 42479047 

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