[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jul 31 23:18:23 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 312320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312319 
NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-010115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NY AND VT/NH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 312319Z - 010115Z

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH MID
EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST NY INTO PORTIONS OF VT/NH...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER
IN EXTREME EASTERN ONTARIO NEAR OTTAWA...WITH ADDITIONAL TOWERING
CU/TSTM DEVELOPMENT NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER.
THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NEAR A WARM FRONT...WITH FURTHER INCREASE
IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY EXPECTED AS TSTMS SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST NY AND
PORTIONS OF VT/NH TONIGHT. THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS MODESTLY
UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. AS CAPTURED VIA THE
BURLINGTON VT WSR-88D VWP...STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES /VERTICAL
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS/ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION...WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR
CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL SCALE BOWS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD...WITH HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL.

..GUYER.. 07/31/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

43747569 44417592 45307399 45127172 44827129 43827156
43627257 43347458 

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