[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Jul 30 22:32:23 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 302234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302233 
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-310030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1679
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN OH...NRN INDIANA...NERN
IL...NWRN PA...EXTREME WRN NY...LE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 661...

VALID 302233Z - 310030Z

OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING ACROSS WW AREA...BUT STILL
REMAINS ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN OH AHEAD OF
REMNANT MCS AND ALONG/S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

MCS HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING PAST 1-2 HOURS OVER LE AND SERN ONT AS
IT ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND LESS DIABATICALLY HEATED LAKE
AIR.  HOWEVER...FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...LIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF
ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
FOR FURTHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM
MOST INTENSE CELLS.  THIS POTENTIAL EXTENDS FROM ERN PORTIONS WW
ACROSS WRN PA AND WRN-MOST NY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MLCAPES THROUGH 00Z WILL TREND FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG IN CENTRAL OH
TO 1000 J/KG OVER SWRN UPSTATE NY.  TSTMS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY -- IN
AREA ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY CMH...CLE...YNG...PIT -- MAY BRIEFLY PULSE
INTENSELY ENOUGH FOR DAMAGING WIND...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL INVOF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AS OF 22Z...WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE LINE
CLE...20 WSW TOL...20 NNW FWA...LAF...10 NE DNV...45 SSW ORD.  SLGT
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT REMAINS ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY THAT PORTION WHICH HAS BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN INDIANA AND NWRN OH.  MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF MORE ROBUST CONVERGENCE...GIVEN WEAK
FLOW ON BOTH SIDES OF THAT SEGMENT OF BOUNDARY.  FARTHER
W...MULTICELL TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SWD ALONG OR
JUST BEHIND BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED/MRGL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 07/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

41228816 40668742 40678562 41328286 42148188 42517976
42917890 42957892 43067901 43287906 43397848 42807832
41787873 40618060 40148068 40158216 39868222 39878241
39548254 39568286 39798284 39798324 40088322 40098351
40218352 40258398 40178437 40368445 40188716 40198812 

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