[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jul 29 20:52:48 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 292053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292052 
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-292215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1667
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL/SERN NY...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655...656...

VALID 292052Z - 292215Z

CONTINUE WWS 655 AND 656.  DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA WITHIN NEXT FEW
HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED.

A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH/
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION...TOWARD THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.  THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ON NOSE OF PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE EMANATING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  25 TO 35 KT WEST
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE STORM MOTIONS...AND DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL.  THIS SHOULD INCREASE EAST OF BUFFALO THROUGH AROUND
22Z.  AND...THOUGH CAPE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG...MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER /WITH
TEMPS AROUND 90F/ AND STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT
SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WITH LEAD
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN SPREADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA BY 23-00Z.

..KERR.. 07/29/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

43387712 43037581 42867464 41717350 41237342 41017429
41547566 42017715 42807805 

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