[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 291600
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291559 
NYZ000-MIZ000-291730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1662
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NEW YORK INTO N CNTRL/ERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291559Z - 291730Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT REGIME IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF
THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...AND AHEAD OF WEAKER IMPULSE PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...HAS SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN.  TONGUE
OF MOIST AIR ALONG/NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR
STRONGER DESTABILIZATION AND WIDELY SCATTERED...BUT INCREASING...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  AS INHIBITION CONTINUES TO ERODE WITH
FURTHER INSOLATION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...MAINLY FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO
INTO THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO.  STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEMS
LIKELY TO SHIFT EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN SHORTLY...BUT SCATTERED
STORMS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  

POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...
BUT AS MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE
DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME...RISK FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WILL
INCREASE.  IN ADDITION TO POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN
STRONGEST STORMS...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST FEW DOWNBURSTS...ENHANCED BY WEAK
TO MODERATE WEST NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW REGIME.

..KERR.. 07/29/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...DTX...APX...GRR...

45148369 45248162 45038020 44707879 44027591 43637488
42207459 42057675 42577947 43148160 43478330 43998482
44758495 

WWWW