[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 290449
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290448 
MNZ000-290615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1658
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 290448Z - 290615Z

POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS WILL SPREAD E OF WW 652 BY 0530Z.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NORMAN INTO
MAHNOMEN COUNTIES IN MN ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF LARGER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN ND.  THUS FAR...REFLECTIVITY
AND IR SATELLITE DATA WOULD SUGGEST THAT QUITE WARM LOWER
TROPOSPHERE AND RESULTANT CAP /PER 00Z SOUNDINGS/ HAS DILUTED
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO SOME DEGREE AS STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
INTENSIFY ACROSS ND.  HOWEVER...BASED ON RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
00Z MPX OBSERVED SOUNDING...IT APPEARS THAT CAPPING WEAKENS AND
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH EWD EXTENT INTO CNTRL MN.

THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ONGOING ELEVATED STORM COMPLEX FROM E OF BIS
TO NEAR AND JUST E OF FAR MAY BEGIN TO INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT MOVES/DEVELOPS EWD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

..MEAD.. 07/29/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

47449550 47649534 47659442 47409372 46679298 46009345
45709412 45609458 45699502 45779557 46099565 46399554
46859544 47209552 

WWWW