[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jul 29 01:16:05 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 290117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290116 
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-290245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1656
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0816 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/W-CNTRL AZ INTO FAR SRN NV INTO SERN CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 651...

VALID 290116Z - 290245Z

SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL
CONTINUE OVER WRN PART OF WW 651 /NAMELY MOHAVE COUNTY/ THROUGH 03Z.
 THIS THREAT MAY EXTEND BEYOND THIS TIME...PERHAPS DEVELOPING WWD
INTO PARTS OF CLARK COUNTY NV AND ERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY IN SERN
CA.

AS OF 01Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS FROM 63 S SGU TO 50 SSE IGM WITH A GENERAL MOTION OF
040/25 KTS.  SEVERAL SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THIS
CLUSTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORM
/EXHIBITING SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION/ 63 S SGU. 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS WITH 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 14 G/KG WHICH WERE
LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  ADDITIONALLY
MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER CIRCULATION ALONG
THE AZ/NM BORDER WAS RESULTING IN 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS WW AREA.

GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 03Z ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA.  VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT AIR MASS ACROSS FAR
SRN NV INTO SERN CA /WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 102-108F/ REMAINS
FAVORABLY UNSTABLE FOR WSWWD PROPAGATION OF WRN AZ MCS.  THOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES WITH WWD EXTENT...STRONG DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 07/29/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

36571350 35951311 35191287 34191351 34061469 34221549
34621606 35201620 36181601 36601575 36801492 

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