[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jul 28 22:39:00 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 282240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282239 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-290015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1653
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0539 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P. OF MICH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650...

VALID 282239Z - 290015Z

VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z
ACROSS NORTHEAST MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P. OF MICH...WITH PRIMARY
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL.

STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG A COLD FRONT AND
LAKE-ENHANCED PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT...WITH PERSISTENT TSTMS FROM THE
CENTRAL U.P. OF MICH/NORTHERN LAKE MICH...WESTWARD TO AROUND 30
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DULUTH. THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPES OF
1500-3000 J/KG -- HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MN -- PER ADJUSTED RUC
SOUNDINGS. AIDED BY A MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
OF 40-45 KTS...LARGELY ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE COLD FRONT/WIND
SHIFT...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEMI-ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ASIDE FROM DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE
HAIL...SOME WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY EXIST EARLY THIS
EVENING...COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE/SLIGHTLY COOLING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

..GUYER.. 07/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

46909445 47279315 47269122 46968864 46288670 45258768
45318965 45509164 45599345 46039425 

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