[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jul 28 19:23:09 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 281924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281923 
AZZ000-282130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1650
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AZ MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 281923Z - 282130Z

SUFFICIENT HEATING HAS OCCURRED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN A
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS TO THE GRAND CANYON.

20-25KT NLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF AZ WITH UPPER LOW ALG NM/AZ
CENTRAL BORDER.  STORMS WILL MOVE/PROPAGATE SWD TOWARD LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG AND 25-30 KT OF SHEAR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY.  PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS.

IN ADDITION GIVEN THE NEARLY 2IN OF PW IN LOWER ELEVATIONS CENTRAL
AZ...RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2/HR WILL BE LIKELY IN STRONGER STORMS.

AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..HALES.. 07/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

35461394 36151359 36531283 36451217 36041186 35781174
35421145 34981129 34591085 34341014 34140977 33670915
33030955 33661140 33901298 34181327 34571372 

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