[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 281842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281841 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-282045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1649
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL WI AND U.P. OF MICH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281841Z - 282045Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL WI AND
THE WESTERN U.P. OF MICH. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY MID
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BY 20Z.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD TO NEAR THE SD/ND/MN
CONJUNCTION AT 18Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES PRIMARILY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MN...WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD HAS RECENTLY EXPANDED/DEEPENED ACROSS
NORTHERN WI/WESTERN U.P. OF MICH...ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LACK OF APPRECIABLE BACKGROUND FORCING
FOR ASCENT COMPLICATES TIMING/EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...FRONTAL FORCING/ADDITIONAL HEATING IN PRESENCE OF A
MOIST AIRMASS /DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F/...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SREF/RUC GUIDANCE.

MODIFIED 12Z MINNEAPOLIS RAOB/RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON...IN PRESENCE OF 35-40 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEMI-ISOLATED/LINE
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH SHEAR/SRH IS MODEST IN THE LOWEST 1-2
KM...POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR A TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS.

..GUYER.. 07/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

45378891 45109053 45169265 45759405 46989410 47619330
47829191 47139018 46618818 

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