[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jul 26 00:41:50 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 260039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260039 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-260245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN AND CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 260039Z - 260245Z

POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL EXIST NEXT FEW HOURS
FROM PARTS OF ERN NEB INTO WRN AND CNTRL IA. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP. A
WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IF IT BECOMES APPARENT INITIATION IS
IMMINENT.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NEWD THROUGH SERN NEB INTO CNTRL IA FROM A
SURFACE LOW OVER N CNTRL KS. A PSEUDO WARM FRONT OR BOUNDARY
SEPARATING DEEPLY MIXED...HOT...DRYER IN KS AIR FROM THE CLOUDY
COOLER REGIME IN NEB/IA EXTENDS ACROSS NRN KS. EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS/CONVECTION PERSIST N OF THIS BOUNDARY FORM ERN NEB INTO IA
AND APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN
ESEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 00Z RAOB FROM OMAHA SHOWS
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SELY LOW LEVEL
FLOW E OF THE SURFACE LOW IN SERN NEB VEERING TO WNWLY 35 KT AT 6 KM
IS CONTRIBUTING TO 30 TO 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT WITH WEAK
UPPER FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS
CONDITIONAL UPON INITIATION. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS NERN
KS...SERN NEB INTO IA...WITH THE STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE EXPECTED
FROM SERN NEB INTO WRN AND CNTRL IA. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY MAY
INITIALLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH OUTFLOW DOMINANT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...FEED OF DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN
STORMS DEVELOPING COLD POOLS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ESEWD
PROPAGATING MCS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IF ENOUGH STORMS
DEVELOP TO ORGANIZE A COLD POOL.

..DIAL.. 07/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...

41209362 40239530 40379709 41289741 41859563 42849393
42429303 

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