[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 240053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240053 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-240230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN/FAR NWRN WI/FAR WRN U.P. OF MI/FAR WRN LK
SUPERIOR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638...

VALID 240053Z - 240230Z

SVR THREAT CONTINUES ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS NERN
MN INTO NWRN WI...AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR WRN U.P. OF MI. A FEW TSTMS
MAY STILL DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL
MN...AND POTENTIALLY POSE A SVR THREAT IN THE WRN PORTION OF WW.
HOWEVER...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FOCUS OF LLJ FURTHER E
INTO WARM FRONTAL ZONE...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL TSTMS IN THIS
REGION APPEARS TO BE LOW. 

SMALL LINEAR CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS FORMED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY WARM
FRONT ACROSS NERN MN. THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY WILL PASS ALONG THE
ERN SIDES OF DULUTH INTO THE FAR WRN PART OF LK SUPERIOR SHORTLY.
ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO NWRN WI AND CONTINUE TO
POSE A WIND THREAT AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN
WI. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPED IN SRN MANITOBA ALONG A
COLD FRONT...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE PAST HOUR. 00Z INL RAOB
INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS AND MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...GREATER SYNOPTIC FORCING TO THE
E...AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
QUESTIONABLE. THE WW COULD BE CLEARED EARLY IN THIS REGION IF TSTMS
DO NOT DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

..GRAMS.. 07/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...FGF...

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46529252 47119322 48189610 48869814 48959532 

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