[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 231932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231931 
MNZ000-WIZ000-232130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN/EXTREME NWRN WI/FAR WRN LK SUPERIOR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231931Z - 232130Z

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...ALONG A WARM FRONT AND/OR SURFACE TROUGH IN NRN MN.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. AREA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. 

VIS IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SCT TO BKN CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM AROUND BAUDETTE TO DETROIT LAKES EWD TO A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT FROM CRANE LAKE TO NEAR DULUTH. AN
ISOLATED CELL HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR ORR ALONG THE FRONT.
GREATEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN CONCENTRATED IN VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...AND ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES WITH APPROACH OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN SERN MANITOBA/NWRN ONTARIO. DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
TROUGH SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN ALONG THE FRONT...WITH A STRONGER
CAP IN PLACE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH DEW
POINTS GENERALLY MIXING TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FROM W TO E IN
THE WARM SECTOR. MODIFIED 12Z INL OBSERVED AND RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MLCAPES SHOULD MAXIMIZE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITHIN THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHERE
0-1 KM HELICITY WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED WITH BACKED S/SE SURFACE
FLOW.

..GRAMS.. 07/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

46499097 46139235 46189363 46489515 46799653 47919535
48919473 48619351 48489248 48069086 47629028 

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